Kaldorian dynamics in an open economy

In this paper, we formulate a Kaldorian business-cycle model in a small open economy. We consider the possibility of capital mobility, and both the system of fixed exchange rates and that of flexible exchange rates are studied. We investigate how changes of the parameter which represents the degree of capital mobility affect the dynamic characteristics of the model. Some numerical simulations are performed based on the analytical model.     

Incorporating positions into asset pricing models with order-based strategies

The paper addresses the problem of agent-based asset pricing models with order-based strategies that the implied positions of the agents remain indeterminate. To overcome this inconsistency, two easily applicable risk aversion mechanisms are proposed which modify the original actions of a market maker and the speculative agents, respectively. Here the concepts are incorporated into the classical Beja–Goldman model. For the deterministic version of the thus enhanced model a four-dimensional mathematical stability analysis is provided. In a stochastic version it is demonstrated that jointly the mechanisms are indeed able to keep the agents’ positions within bounds, provided the corresponding risk aversion coefficients are neither too low nor too high. A similar result holds for the misalignment of the market price. We wish to thank two anonymous referees for their observations and detailed comments. Financial support from EU STREP ComplexMarkets, contract number 516446, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Management of rainfall-related environmental risks in urban area

Rainfall brings urban residents both benefits, such as water resources, but also adverse risks such as flooding. Additionally, it has been recognized that wet weather run-off discharges pollutants

and transfers chemicals and pathogen bacteria into the aquatic ecosystem. This causes not only deterioration of water quality but also environmental pollution risk. Both the flood risk and environmental pollution risk are treated here as ‘rainfall-related environmental risks’. Although these two kinds of risks are quite different in their characteristics, the main purpose of urban wet weather flow management is how to decrease these risks. Furthermore, these risks have a similar background which is concerned with both the urban structure and the life-style of urban residents. Recently, flood disaster has occurred in the Japanese urban area with increasing frequency causing damage due not only to rainfall intensity, but also the vulnerability of urban structures against heavy storms. Although there has been urban area expansion and a decline in substrate permeability, wet weather flow management in Japan is aimed simply to drain the increased run-off volume quickly. As for the management of hazardous chemicals which might be discharged together with rainfall run-off, this has not been implemented sufficiently. It is necessary to develop a methodology to reduce rainfall-related environmental risks in urban wet weather flow management. In this paper, the possible risk management process and control options of rainfall-related risks will be discussed after a summary of both the similar and differing points between inundation risk and environmental pollution risk. As a result, it is deemed necessary to operate a scheme to raise the rainfall-related environmental risk perception level of urban residents to ensure their participation in risk management.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

On dynamics in a Keynesian model of monetary and fiscal stabilization policy mix with twin debt accumulation

In this paper, a six‐dimensional model of flexible prices with the monetary and fiscal policy mix, describing the development of the firms’ private debt, the output, the expected rate of inflation, the rate of interest, government expenditure, and government bonds are analyzed. The stress put on the “twin debt accumulation” means that in our model both private debt accumulation and the public debt (government bond) accumulation are explicitly introduced. Questions concerning the existence of limit cycles around its normal equilibrium point are investigated. The bifurcation equation is found. The formulae for the calculation of its coefficients are gained. Numerical example illustrating the results attained is presented by means of numerical simulations.     

Growth and finance: An intertemporal model

Frequently, intertemporal models, for example, Uzawa's (1969) work on growth, are based on the separation of investment and the financing decisions of firms. Finance variables are disregarded. In contrast, along the lines of the theory of imperfect capital markets, the present paper allows for cross-effects between firms' financial structure and the value of firms. A steady-state analysis gives empirical predictions on the relation of investment, finance and debt, and Hopf-Bifurcation analysis establishes the possibility of cyclical paths.     

On a mixed competitive-monopolistic macrodynamic model in a monetary economy

In this paper we reconsider the dynamic stability of the mixed competitive-monopolistic system in an analytical framework of the macroeconomic growth model in a monetary economy. We construct a simple monetary growth model in the so-called Keynes-Wicksell tradition and investigate how the degree of competition affects the dynamic stability of the system. Our analysis reveals the destabilizing rather than the stabilizing forces of the monopolistic system in amonetary economy contrary to the usual analyses. We also show that the system produces the purely cyclical behavior at some intermediate degrees of competition by using the Hopf-Bifurcation theorem.This paper was written while the author was staying at the New School for Social Research in New York as a visiting research scholar. Special thanks are due to Prof. Willi Semmler for providing the comfortable research environment and to Komazawa University for the financial support. The author is also grateful to Dr. Reiner Franke and two anonymous referees of this journal for their constructive comments and helpful suggestions. Needless to say, however, only the author is responsible for possible remaining errors.