PREDICTING SYSTEMATIC RISK WITH MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL VARIABLES

We analyze the predictive power of several macroeconomic and financial indicators in forecasting quarterly realized betas of 30 industry and 25 size and book-to-market portfolios. We model realized betas as autoregressive processes of order 1 and include lagged values of macroeconomic and financial indicators as exogenous predictor variables. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, forecasts using bond market variables as exogenous predictors statistically outperform forecasts from a benchmark model without any exogenous predictors. These forecasts based on bond market variables also economically outperform benchmark forecasts by providing better performance in hedging the market risk of portfolios.     

Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments

ABSTRACT

We test the empirical validity of the PPP proposition under temporary structural breaks and dynamic nonlinear adjustments. Although several testing procedures have recently been proposed in the existing literature to investigate stochastic properties of the series under gradual breaks and nonlinear adjustments, none of these tests are compatible with the PPP proposition. Therefore, we propose new testing procedures that restrict the break to be temporary while simultaneously allowing for asymmetric dynamic nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium. Using these newly proposed tests, we test stationarity of real exchange rate of 24 OECD countries vis-à-vis USA, and find support in favour of PPP proposition in majority of the countries.     

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear,asymmetric panel-data evidence

This paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.     

How do Expatriate Managers Draw the Boundaries of Moral Free Space in the Case of Guanxi?

Journal of Business Ethics - This paper explores expatriates’ ethical evaluations of and responses to guanxi in China through the lens of integrative social contracts theory. We conducted...     

The impact of purchasing strategy-structure (mis)fit on purchasing cost and innovation performance

The organizational design literature strongly supports the notion of “structure follows strategy”, and suggests that a misfit between the two has a negative effect on performance. Building on this line of argument, we examine to what extent the (mis)fit between purchasing strategy and purchasing structure impacts purchasing performance. We focus on cost and innovation purchase category strategies, and examine how the deviation from an ideal purchasing structure defined along three dimensions (centralization, formalization, and cross-functionality) impacts purchasing performance. Analysing data collected from 469 firms in ten countries, we demonstrate that a strategy-structure misfit negatively impacts purchasing performance in both cost and innovation strategies. We also find that purchasing proficiency is a mediator in this relationship between misfit and performance. Our findings aid managerial decision making by empirically validating the necessity of having the right purchasing structure for successfully executing different purchasing strategies.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

A theory of search with deadlines and uncertain recall

We ask how the ability to recall past prices affects the dynamics of search and price formation. In the model, buyers have limited time to purchase a good and face uncertainty regarding the availability of past price quotes in the future. Sellers cannot observe a potential buyer’s remaining time until deadline nor her quote history, and hence post prices that weigh the probability of sale versus the profit once sold. We find that, in contrast to conventional wisdom, reducing the consumer’s recall ability may actually improve his expected utility because it lowers the average expected price in the market and reduces the duration of search.     

Monetary policy implications of short-term capital flows in Turkey

The advent of global financial crisis in 2008, unleashed volatile short term capital flows to the emerging markets. This has forced many central banks in the developing world to adopt innovative policy measures to address concerns related to financial instability caused by the volatile nature of capital flows. In 2010 Turkish Central Bank included financial stability in addition to price stability as one of primary goals of its monetary policy. Several macro-prudential measures had been taken and ‘corridor system’ of setting the short-term policy rates had been introduced. In this paper, we have estimated an extended Taylor rule, using error correction model, to examine the impact of global financial factors in impacting the setting up of the policy rate in the pre and post 2010 periods in Turkey. It has been found that in the post-2010 period, global financial factors and monetary policy stance of the core economy, USA, have become major factor(s) in shaping up the monetary policy. Particularly our results of variance decomposition show that global financial indicators such as, VIX and EMBI have taken prominence in the setting of the short-term policy rate. This has not only made the domestic monetary more dependent on external factors but has also made pro-cyclical in nature.     

The analysis of determinants of going concern audit report

Going concern is one of essential things for user to make a financial decision. This research aims to explore factors that caused the issuance of going concern audit report by auditor. This research adds two new variables, audit size and audit committee, besides the other factors that cause auditor issue a going concern audit report. This research uses a regression logistic analysis to determine the relationship of each variable （liquidity, solvability, profitability, cash flow, audit firm size and audit committee） to going concern audit report. Different from previous researches, the results of this research show that liquidity, profitability, cash flow, and audit committee are not significant to influence the issuance of audit opinion. Audit size has a more significant relationship to audit opinion, while solvability is the most significant factor.     

Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks

Real interest rate is a crucial variable that determines the consumption, investment and saving behavior of individuals and thereby acts as a key policy tool that the central banks use to control the economy. Although many important theoretical models require the real interest rates to be stationary, the empirical evidence accumulated so far has not been able to provide conclusive evidence on the mean reverting dynamics of this variable. To resolve this puzzle we re-investigate the stochastic nature of the real interest rates by developing unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis allows for a smooth transition between deterministic linear trends around which stationary asymmetric adjustment may occur. When the newly developed panel unit root tests are applied to the real interest rates of the 17 OECD countries, we were able to uncover overwhelming empirical support in favor of mean reversion in the short-run and long-run real interest rates. Therefore, these results show that the conclusions drawn from a miss-specified test that ignores the presence of either nonlinearity, structural breaks or cross sectional dependence can give quite misleading results about the stochastic behavior of the real interest rates.