CAN INEFFICIENT TRADERS CREATE VALUE?

I examine the aggregate expected profit generated by informed traders of diverse ability in a competitive market. I assume that efficient traders get perfect information on asset values whereas inefficient traders get noisy information. In the presence of order size restrictions, I show that the aggregate expected profit generated by efficient and inefficient traders together can be higher than that generated by efficient traders alone. Thus, inefficient traders can create value in a constrained trading environment.     

Supplier Selection Practices among Small Firms in the United States: Testing Three Models

One of the issues investigated in recent studies on small business enterprises involves the role of supply chain management. Supply chain management has become an important part of strategic planning in both large and small businesses in the 1990s as firms increasingly choose outsourcingas an externally-driven strategic growth path. This study examines the supplier selection practices among 78 small business executives in the midwest United States by testing three models: rational/normative, external control, and strategic choice. Although the results show support for all three models, the rational/normative model emerges as the most significant model for predicting the supplier selection practices of small firms.     

Who Herds? Who Doesn't? Estimates of Analysts’ Herding Propensity in Forecasting Earnings

We develop parametric estimates of the imitation‐driven herding propensity of analysts and their earnings forecasts. By invoking rational expectations, we solve an explicit analyst optimization problem and estimate herding propensity using two measures: First, we estimate analysts’ posterior beliefs using actual earnings plus a realization drawn from a mean‐zero normal distribution. Second, we estimate herding propensity without seeding a random error, and allow for nonorthogonal information signals. In doing so, we avoid using the analyst's prior forecast as the proxy for his posterior beliefs, which is a traditional criticism in the literature. We find that more than 60 percent of analysts herd toward the prevailing consensus, and herding propensity is associated with various economic factors. We also validate our herding propensity measure by confirming its predictive power in explaining the cross‐sectional variation in analysts’ out‐of‐sample herding behavior and forecast accuracy. Finally, we find that forecasts adjusted for analysts’ herding propensity are less biased than the raw forecasts. This adjustment formula can help researchers and investors obtain better proxies for analysts’ unbiased earnings forecasts.     

Debt Covenant Violations,Firm Financial Distress,and Auditor Actions

We conduct a comprehensive study on the associations between debt covenant violations (“violations”) and auditor actions for financially distressed and nondistressed firms. Our study is motivated by a lack of research on the consequences of violations resulting from auditors' actions. We find that firms with violations have significantly higher audit fees, a greater likelihood of receiving a going‐concern opinion, and a greater likelihood of experiencing an auditor resignation. Importantly, the positive associations hold for all types of firms, including financially nondistressed firms. In fact, we find that, after controlling for other financial information, the relation between violations and an increased likelihood of a going‐concern opinion is stronger for nondistressed versus distressed firms. Our evidence is consistent with belief‐revision research in auditing that finds auditors react more strongly to information that is inconsistent with their prior beliefs. This study provides further evidence on the indirect yet significant consequences of covenant violations on firms resulting from auditor actions.     

Occupational status,earnings, and fertility expectations: Development and estimation of a causal model

Summary This paper tests, within the framework of LISREL, the causal structures of occupational status, earnings, and fertility expectations using data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey of currently married and common-law women aged 18–44. Differential occupational status, earnings, and fertility among three groups of wives classified by generation of Canadian residence are also examined. The models incorporate age, education, work experience, and ethnic/English language ability as exogenous determinants of occupational status, earnings, and fertility.The major findings are: (1) lower earnings of third generation wives are strongly related to lower levels of education, work experience, and job status; (2) wives who speak an ethnic language are likely to have lower fertility than comparable wives who do not speak an ethnic language; and (3) generational effects on earnings and fertility are limited to differences in education, work experience, and occupational status.The author is grateful to Dr. Karol J. Krotki, co-director of the Canadian Fertility Study, for permission to analyze the Canadian Fertility Survey data. Special thanks are also due to Ms. Margaret King for her comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

A tax-based motive for the underpricing of initial public offerings

This paper presents a model of entrepreneurial wealth maximization for the pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). It is an extension of one previously presented in the literature. The model shows that personal tax rates on ordinary income and capital gains may, in part, determine IPO pricing: an increase in the capital gains tax rate should lower the degree of underpricing. An empirical analysis of the effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which raised the capital gains tax rate, shows that the average degree of underpricing did decrease as predicted, and that this occurs after controlling for other possible influences.