Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

Legalistic organizational responses to catastrophic illness: The effect of stigmatization on reactions to HIV/AIDS

The HIV/AIDS epidemic has focused increased attention on catastrophic illnesses in the workplace, and because of the stigmas associated with HIV/AIDS, it raises three primary concerns for organizations: (1) organizational avoidance of legal sanctions and litigation; (2) the maintenance of organizational legitimacy; and (3) organizational protection of employee rights. Although many organizations adopt legalistic responses to cope with these concerns, the analysis presented in this article suggests that while legalistic approaches function well to protect organizational interests in terms of both legal liability and legitimacy, the are only partially able to protect employee rights. Drawing upon the limited literature on HIV/AIDS in the workplace, this article presents an agenda for future research on organizational responses to HIV/AIDS.     

Pricing, learning, and strategic behavior in a single-sale model

Summary. We analyze an infinite horizon model where a seller who owns an indivisible unit of a good for sale has incomplete information about the state of the world that determines not only the demand she faces but also her own valuation for the good. Over time, she randomly meets potential buyers who may have incentives to manipulate her learning process strategically. We show that i) the seller's incentives to post a high price and to experiment are not necessarily monotonic in the information conveyed by a buyer's rejection; and ii) as the discount factors tend to one, there are equilibria where the seller always ends up selling the good at an ex-post individually rational price. Received: January 6, 1999; revised version: July 15, 2000     

Law without justice: The dilemmas of formalization and fairness in the legalistic organization

There is growing evidence of a litigation mentality rampant in organizations, which has created a legalistic mindset in many managers. Increasingly, managerial decisions are becoming dominated by a concern for what is legally defensible at the expense of broader social considerations such as justice and fairness. The papers in this special issue explore how this legalistic mindset has created new organizational and social dilemmas, and situations of law whithout justice.     

Life histories in housing research: the case of Pakistanis in Glasgow

The discussion centers on three key criticisms of life history techniques, which are reviewed and evaluated with reference to data from research on Pakistani housing histories in Glasgow. Firstly, the problem of bias is reframed as an issue of reflexivity, which enhances research findings. Secondly, awareness of the cultural construction of life histories allows greater depth of analysis. And thirdly the problem of the relationship between the life history and wider social forces is argued to increase awareness and understanding of social actor agency. In conclusion, we argue that life history techniques can develop research on housing careers, particularly of Pakistanis, provided certain of their properties are recognised in the process of analysis.     

The Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Insurance Services

In light of the growing significance of trade in financial services, and the emphasis placed on trade in financial services during the Uruguay round of trade negotiations, this article is the first study of the determinants of intra‐industry trade (IIT) in insurance services. The article analyzes and measures the magnitude of IIT in insurance services for the United States. The empirical results of the determinants of IIT indicate that foreign direct investment in insurance services (FDI) is a significant contributor to the volume of trade in insurance services. These empirical findings confirm the new theoretical trade models that, unlike the traditional trade theory that considered trade and foreign direct investment in insurance services as substitutes, trade and FDI complement each other and hence multinational insurance companies are contributing to an increase in the volume of trade in insurance services. Furthermore, this study shows that trade intensity between the United States and its trading partners leads to product differentiation in insurance services and hence an increase in consumer welfare.     

Deals inside: examining restaurant operators’ motives when choosing whether to offer a flash-sale

As restaurants are the primary hospitality business represented on flash-sale sites, this study examined motivations of restaurant managers when choosing whether to utilize the promotional mediums of flash-sales. Interviews were administered as a measurement instrument. Results demonstrated restaurants which have employed flash-sales are weary of the likelihood of success and believe the flash-sales brought in established customers. Non-users indicated hesitation towards adoption of flash-sales related to low profit margins per item in their operation and the percentage split of the sale price between the firm and flash-sale provider. Findings provide keen foundational insight into the flashsale phenomenon.     

Institutions as constraints and resources: Explaining cross‐national divergence in performance management

This article compares performance management practices in call centres from four telecommunications firms in the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, and Germany. Findings show that different combinations of institutional constraints, such as strong job security protections, and participation resources supporting worker voice were influential in shaping choices among policies to motivate and discipline workers. Performance management most closely approached a high‐involvement model where both constraints and resources were high, where worker representatives were able both to restrict management's use of sanctions and to establish procedures that improved the perceived fairness of incentives. Findings contribute to debates concerning the role of contextual factors in the design and effectiveness of HRM.     

IMMIGRANT RELATIVE WAGES AT THE GREAT RECESSION: EVIDENCE WITH MATCHED EMPLOYER‐EMPLOYEE DATA FOR SPAIN

The article examines relative wages of immigrants in Spain, with a particular focus on the impact of the Great Recession. The empirical analysis is restricted to men and is based on matched employer‐employee microdata and the decomposition techniques of Juhn et al. (1991, 1993) and Fortin et al. (2011). Our results show that the significant native‐immigrant wage gap that exists both in terms of average wages and of differentials along the wage distribution is essentially explained by differences in the endowments of observed characteristics so that, in general, immigrants tend to receive a similar wage treatment than Spaniards with analogous observed attributes. On the other hand, the Great Recession has had a noticeable impact on the relative wages of immigrants, given that the significant increase of the native‐immigrant wage gap observed during the previous expansionary period was mitigated during the economic downturn due to composition effects arising from the severe employment destruction pattern.     

Proving regularity of the minimal probability of ruin via a game of stopping and control

We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems: (a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is stochastic and the individual can invest in a Black–Scholes financial market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls the drift and volatility of a process in order to maximize a running reward based on that process, and the stopper chooses the time to stop the running reward and pays the controller a final amount at that time. Our primary goal is to show that the minimal probability of ruin, whose stochastic representation does not have a classical form as does the utility maximization problem (i.e., the objective’s dependence on the initial values of the state variables is implicit), is the unique classical solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, which is a non-linear boundary-value problem. We establish our goal by exploiting the convex duality relationship between (a) and (b).