Bartlett corrections for the weibull distribution

We describe, for the calculation of Bartlett adjustments, a method which may be of use when a transformation to orthogonalized parameters can be found. This method is used to calculate the Bartlett adjustment for the Weibull distribution if two or only one of the parameters are of interest.     

Eight months later — Has the Eurozone been stabilised or will EMU fall apart?

Eight months ago, as the risk of sovereign default in Greece fi rst emerged, the Intereconomics Forum invited a number of contributors to examine the options available to EU policymakers. As the threats to European Monetary Union resurface now, six of the same authors return in this issue’s Forum to reassess the situation, in particular with regard to the EU’s recent policy responses to the ongoing crisis. Whereas both optimists and pessimists could support their views with strong arguments eight months ago, the EU’s current predicament has shifted the prevailing sentiment strongly toward the pessimistic view. From the Irish bailout to the precarious status of Portugal, not to mention the potentially disastrous situation looming in Spain, our contributors are uncertain whether EU policymakers are up to the challenge of defending the euro. As evidence of this, several point to the EU Council’s October decision to establish a permanent crisis resolution mechanism to ensure an orderly state insolvency procedure, which did little to calm markets. Nonetheless, most of these economists still see ways for the EU to escape the crisis without being forced to abandon the common currency.     

Estimation of the parameters of the Weibull distribution for censored samples

The Weibull distribution is an often used model in survival analysis of technical products. In this paper confidence estimations for the parameters of the Weibull distribution are developed for type I censored samples without and with replacements.     

The impact of regulation on advertising: A content analysis

This paper reports the results of a formal content analysis of claims made in advertisements found in 16 consumer magazines for four product categories — antiperspirants, skin lotions, prepared foods, and pet foods — before (1970), during (1976), and after (1984) the spurt of regulatory activity in the US.The results suggest that significant changes were evident in types of claims made and the manner in which advertising claims were presented. If causality can be claimed, one can conclude that the regulatory program was moderately successful. In 1976 consumers were provided less information, but it was of better quality than in 1970. However by 1984 the various trends seem to suggest that advertisers are returning to their pre-regulation ways.

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Die Auswirkungen regulierender Maßnahmen auf die Werbung: eine Inhaltsanalyse

Zusammenfassung Zunächst schildert der Beitrag mittel- und längerfristige Veränderungen in der Haltung der amerikanischen Wettbewerbsbehörde (Federal Trade Commission) zur Werbung in den USA. Eine sehr liberale Einstellung seit den 50iger Jahren wurde um die Mitte der 70iger Jahre durch eine Phase starker Regulierung, unter anderem in der Form von gegen- und richtigstellender Werbung sowie einer Offenlegungspflicht, abgelöst. Mit Beginn der 80iger Jahre setzte erneut eine Phase der Deregulierung ein.Desweiteren berichtet der Beitrag über eine empirische Untersuchung der Auswirkung dieser Veränderungen auf den Inhalt von Werbung, insbesondere auf die Art und Zahl von Produktaussagen. Die Analyse stützt sich auf 662 Anzeigen für die 4 Produktgruppen Deodorantien, Hautlotionen, Haustierfutter und Fertiggerichte aus insgesamt 16 Zeitschriften der Jahre 1970, 1976 und 1984.Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, daß die Politik stärkerer Regulierung der Werbung ziemlich erfolgreich war. Zwar enthielten die Anzeigen des Jahres 1976 eine etwas geringere Anzahl informativer Produktaussagen, diese waren aber von besserer Aussagekraft als die des Jahres 1970. Die Daten für die Werbeanzeigen des Jahres 1984 deuten darauf hin, daß diese Entwicklung wieder rückläufig ist.

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Harold H. Kassarjian is a professor at the Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024-1481, USA. Waltraud M. Kassarjian is a psychologist, 8968 Gothic Ave., Sepulveda, California 91343, USA. The authors are indebted to Priscilla H. Wright for much of the clerical work and for conducting the judging sessions in this study; and to Rajeev Kohli for his insights into data analysis. The Editors of the journal were most helpful bringing this work to fruition.     

Hygiene im OP

Zusammenfassung  Das ist zu beachten — Auch wenn das Bürsten der Haut mittlerweile als obsolet gilt – neben den allgemein gültigen Standardhygienema?nahmen müssen im OP-Bereich zus?tzliche spezielle Hygienema?nahmen eingehalten werden.     

How will EMU affect cohesion?

The new policy environment of EMU affects economic, political and social cohesion in different ways: the policy mix and menu will be reconfigured; it will provide for more macroeconomic stability in cohesion countries; economic competition will intensify and change patterns of specialisation; and comparison of living standards will become easier, which puts pressure on policymakers to reduce inequalities. This article assesses the significance of these effects and their likely consequences in the short, medium and long run. Then the salient cohesion issues as regards eastern enlargement are discussed. Finally, policy conclusions are drawn, mindful of the considerable uncertainties that warrant further research. joint editor of the Journal of Common Market Studies. He has just moved to the European Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science, UK. He is also Visiting Associate Professor at the University of Aveiro     

Diagnoses by general practitioners: Accuracy and reliability

Only 10% of the results of consultations in primary care can be assigned to a confirmed diagnosis, while 50% remain “symptoms” and 40% are classified as “named syndromes” (“picture of a disease”). Moreover, less than 20% of the most frequent diagnoses account for more than 80% of the results of consultations. This finding, confirmed empirically during the last fifty years, suggests a power law distribution, with critical consequences for diagnosis and decision making in primary care.Our results prove that primary care has a severe “black swan” element in the vast majority of consultations. Some critical cases involving “avoidable life-threatening dangerous developments” (ALDD) such as myocardial disturbance, brain bleeding, and appendicitis may be masked by those often vague symptoms of health disorders ranked in the 20% most frequent diagnoses. The Braun distribution predicts the frequency of health disorders on a phenomenological level and reveals the “black swan” problem, but is not a tool by itself for arriving at accurate diagnoses. To improve predictions and enhance the reliability of diagnoses we propose standards of documentation and a systematic manner by which the risk facing a patient with an uncertain diagnosis can be evaluated (diagnostic protocols).Accepting a power law distribution in primary care implies the following: (1) primary care should no longer be defined only by “low prevalence” properties, but also by its black-swan-incidence-problem. This includes rethinking malpractice and the requirements of malpractice litigations; (2) at the level of everyday practice, diagnostic protocols are tools to make diagnoses more reliable; (3) at the level of epidemiology, Braun’s system of classification is useful for generating valid information by which predictions of risks can be improved.     

Zur Geschichte der Versicherungsmathematik an der TU Dresden bis 1945

In 1919 the chair for Insurance Mathematics has been founded at the TH Dresden.Paul Eugen Boehmer was the first professor at this chair. For a long time this was the only chair in whole Germany which has been completely dedicated to the Insurance Mathematics. It has been preceded by a Seminar on Insurance Mathematics which has been founded in 1896 and has been chaired byGeorg Helm, the professor for Applied Mathematics. The seminar was based on Dresden’s long tradition in Mathematical Statistics and Theory of Probability, National Economy and Insurance Matters. This tradition is connected with the names of the professorsSchloemilch, Huels-se, Zeuner, andBoehmert. The background was the development of Insurance Matters in the economically strong Saxonia.