Global economy gathering strength

Encouraged by a highly expansionary economic policy, the global economy is enjoying a rapid upturn. Utilisation of capacity is high in many sectors, particularly in the growth centres of the USA and East Asia, where China leads the field. With inflationary risks on the increase, most countries are now shifting the focus of economic policy. Fiscal policy in particular can be expected to provide little in the way of further stimulus. In addition, there has been a turnaround in interest rates in many countries. Yet how quickly can the monetary reins be tightened without jeopardising growth or endangering price stability?     

Editorial

Original Papers

Editorial     

Marked recovery in the world economy

With expansion accelerating strongly since last summer, the world economy has overcome an extended period of weakness. The USA, driven by highly expansive fiscal policies, is once again proving to be an important locomotive for global economic development. The strong fiscal stimulus will diminish sharply this year, however. Can the recovery continue nonetheless? This is of importance for the euro area in particular, where exports have so far been the primary foundation of economic resurgence. Is the substantial appreciation of the euro jeopardising prospects of catching up with the rest of the world?     

Rückkehr der Inflation?

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Labour market policies in the western industrialised countries

The longer the high levels of unemployment continue in western countries the greater is the discussion about a policy aimed at reducing unemployment which is independent of general counter-cyclical and growth policies. What type of labour market policy measures have been adopted up to now in these countries?     

World economic slowdown

In the course of last year, the economic climate cooled down world-wide; it was placed under additional strain in late summer by the Gulf crisis. In some industrialized countries, especially the USA, recessive trends have recently gained prevalence. Do indications for 1991 therefore point to a downturn in the world economy?     

Reaganomics and the world economy

The upswing in the US economy, which has long since surpassed all expectations, has undoubtedly been a great success for the economic policy embarked upon by President Reagan. But has the treatment which has done the USA so much good also been good for the rest of the world? American observers always draw attention to the import boom, whilst overseas commentators are more concerned with the worldwide effects of the USA's very high interest rates.     

Dynamische Weltkonjunktur—gebremster Aufschwung in Deutschland

Trotz weiter gestiegener ?lpreise expandiert die Weltwirtschaft kr?ftig. Davon profitiert auch die deutsche Wirtschaft; sie befindet sich in einem Aufschwung, zu dem mehr und mehr die Binnennachfrage beitr?gt. Allerdings haben die Zinsen weltweit merklich angezogen, und angesichts zunehmender inflation?rer Risiken ist eine weitere Straffung der geldpolitischen Zügel sicher. Wie stark wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung dadurch ged?mpft? Wie verkraftet die deutsche Wirtschaft überdies die deutliche Anhebung der Mehrwertsteuer im n?chsten Jahr? Dr. Eckhardt Wohlers, 62, ist Leiter der Abteilung „Internationale Makro?konomie“ im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA); Dr. Günter Weinert, 64, ist dort wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter.