Are We Better Off if Our Politicians Have More Information?

The model of public policy studied in this paper has heterogeneous citizens/voters and two public goods: one (roads) chosen directly by an elected policy‐maker, and the other (pollution) stochastically dependent on the amount of roads. Both a one‐country and a two‐country version of the model are analyzed; the latter displays externalities across the countries which create incentives for free riding and strategic delegation. The welfare effects of providing the policy‐maker with information about the relationship between roads and pollution are investigated, and it is shown that more information hurts some—sometimes even all—citizens. In particular, the opportunity not to create an institution for information gathering can serve as a commitment device for a country, although with the unfortunate effect of making the overall outcome even worse. Implications for the welfare effects of “informational lobbying” are also discussed.     

美国对员工股票期权的会计处理及其启示

美国推行采用公允价值计价对员工股票期权进行会计处理，引起了广泛争议。我国目前采用公允价值计价的条件尚不成熟，可用内在价值法计价，并加强披露，对员工股票期权进行会计处理。     

New ventures in Cleantech: Opportunities,capabilities and innovation outcomes

Facing the challenge of climate change, innovations that imply environmental benefits create business opportunities for entrepreneurs. This paper analyzes innovation capabilities of startups in Cleantech and how the innovation outcomes of those startups develop over time. Based on the Mannheim Foundation Panel and applying propensity score matching, a cohort of 567 Cleantech startups is analyzed and compared with a control cohort of non‐Cleantech startups. We find that startups in Cleantech have, on average, higher technological capabilities compared with all other startups. Our econometric evidence shows that Cleantech startups are more likely to combine existing technology in a novel way. Finally, we find that Cleantech startups develop more market novelties in subsequent years when compared with their control group peers.     

Das neue Energiewirtschaftsgesetz—Regelungen für einen erweiterten Zielkatalog

Mehr als ein Jahr nach dem EU-rechtlich vorgegebenen Endtermin wurde im Juli 2005 das neue Energiewirtschaftsgesetz verabschiedet. Von welchen Zielen geht dieses Gesetz aus? Wie lauten seine wichtigsten Neuregelungen? Und welche Auswirkungen sind von ihnen zu erwarten?     

On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series

We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods for those two classes of models. A VAR model in first differences, with and without cointegration restrictions, and a VAR model in annual differences are also included in the analysis, where they serve as benchmark models. Our empirical results indicate that the VAR model in first differences without cointegration is best if one-step ahead forecasts are considered. For longer forecast horizons however, the VAR model in annual differences is better. When comparing periodic versus seasonal cointegration models, we find that the seasonal cointegration models tend to yield better forecasts. Finally, there is no clear indication that multiple equations methods improve on single equation methods.     

When mandatory disclosure hurts: Expert advice and conflicting interests

We study the quality of advice that an informed and biased expert gives to an uninformed decision maker. We compare two scenarios: mandatory disclosure of the bias and nondisclosure, where information about the bias can only be revealed through cheap-talk. We find that in many scenarios nondisclosure allows for higher welfare for both parties. Hiding the bias allows for more precise communication for the more biased type and, if different types are biased in different directions, may allow for the same for the less biased type. We identify contexts where equilibrium revelation allows but mandatory disclosure prevents meaningful communication.     

Schlechter Wein in alten Schläuchen—Eine Replik auf Helmedag

In der Januarausgabe des WIRTSCHAFTSDIENST ver?ffentlichten wir einen Aufsatz von Professor Fritz Helmedag über die „Abh?ngigkeit der Besch?ftigung von Steuern, Budgetdefiziten und L?hnen“. Hierzu eine Replik von Professor Bernd Lucke und eine Erwiderung von Professor Fritz Helmedag.