Stock Market Linkages in South–East Asia

The present paper examines the linkages between the South–East Asian stock markets following the opening of the stock markets in the 1990s. No evidence was found to indicate a long–run relationship among the South–East Asian stock markets over the period 1988–1997; however, correlation analyses indicate that the South–East Asian stock markets are becoming more integrated. The results from the time–varying parameter model also show that the stock market returns of Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand had all become more closely linked with that of Singapore.     

Relative error prediction in nonparametric deconvolution regression model

In this paper, we studied an alternative estimator of the regression function when the covariates are observed with error. It is based on the minimization of the relative mean squared error. We obtain expressions for its asymptotic bias and variance together with an asymptotic normality result. Our technique is illustrated on simulation studies. Numerical results suggest that the studied estimator can lead to tangible improvements in prediction over the usual kernel deconvolution regression estimator, particularly in the presence of several outliers in the dataset.     

Years of life lost due to metastatic melanoma in 12 countries

Background:

Regionally or distantly metastatic melanoma (stages IIIB/C and IV) place a high burden on society. To quantify this burden, this study estimated years of life lost (YLL) per patient for adults with metastatic melanoma in 12 countries in 2014.

Methods:

General population growth and life expectancy were estimated from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data and life tables for each country. Incidence of melanoma and mortality rates for the disease were based on GLOBOCAN and US registry data. The prevalence of metastatic melanoma was calculated using mortality rates and survival data from patients with melanoma. YLL per patient was estimated by the difference between the disease-free life expectancy and the life expectancy with metastatic melanoma.

Results:

YLL per patient were as follows: Australia, men?=?19.9 years, women?=?22.7 years; Brazil, 16.3, 19.8; Canada, 19.4, 22.3; France, 18.8, 23.1; Germany, 18.3, 20.8; Italy, 19.3, 22.7; Mexico, 17.2, 19.0; the Netherlands, 18.5, 21.5; Spain, 19.2, 23.1; Sweden 19.4, 22.0; the UK, 18.7, 21.2; and the US, 17.9, 20.6.

Conclusions:

The burden of metastatic melanoma as measured by YLL is substantial in all 12 countries; although there is variation across countries and between men and women.     

PREDICTING UNCERTAINTY AUDIT QUALIFICATIONS IN AUSTRALIA USING PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION

This research project constructed a logit model to predict “subject to” qualified audit opinions using financial statement and market variables for 1,848 audit reports for Australian companies issued from 1984 to 1988. The model provided a better goodness of fit and was more efficient than two naive strategies for predicting “subject to” audit qualifications. The model explicitly incorporated the relative costs of Type II to Type I errors to account for the auditor's asymmetrical loss function. The model was reasonably accurate when a sensitivity analysis for the relative costs of Type II and Type I errors was considered. The accuracy rates for the estimation sample ranged from 70% to 95%. An inter-temporal holdout sample of 293 audit opinions for Australian firms issued during 1989 indicated that the model was useful for predicting “subject to” audit opinions. The accuracy rates for the holdout sample ranged from 72% to 90% over a range of relative Type II and Type I costs.     

Technical efficiency in farming: a meta-regression analysis

A meta-regression analysis including 167 farm level technical efficiency (TE) studies of developing and developed countries was undertaken. The econometric results suggest that stochastic frontier models generate lower mean TE (MTE) estimates than non-parametric deterministic models, while parametric deterministic frontier models yield lower estimates than the stochastic approach. The primal approach is the most common technological representation. In addition, frontier models based on cross-sectional data produce lower estimates than those based on panel data whereas the relationship between functional form and MTE is inconclusive. On average, studies for animal production show a higher MTE than crop farming. The results also suggest that the studies for countries in Western Europe and Oceania present, on average, the highest levels of MTE among all regions after accounting for various methodological features. In contrast, studies for Eastern European countries exhibit the lowest estimate followed by those from Asian, African, Latin American, and North American countries. Additional analysis reveals that MTEs are positively and significantly related to the average income of the countries in the data set but this pattern is broken by the upper middle income group which displays the lowest MTE.

SHOULD THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES FORM A CURRENCY UNION?

This paper examines some of the factors related to the formation of a currency union in Southeast Asia. The main part of the paper presents the results of our examination of the correlation of shocks for the Southeast Asian countries using a structural vector autoregression. The shocks are identified using restrictions on the long‐run coefficient matrix as suggested by Blanchard and Quah (1989). The correlations of shocks for the EU and NAFTA countries are used for comparison. The Southeast Asian countries are shown to have more strongly correlated shocks than the EU countries. Compared with the NAFTA countries, external shocks are more closely correlated for the ASEAN countries, but the supply and demand shocks are less correlated. Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia, in particular, exhibit a high degree of correlation of shocks. Other criteria for monetary union, such as intra‐regional trade, openness of the economy, and similarity of monetary policy are also examined.