Exchange Rate Pass‐through and Currency Invoicing: Implications for Monetary Integration in East Asia

Exporter's price‐setting behaviour and currency invoicing play a key role in the literature on the new open‐economy macroeconomics. This paper estimates exchange rate pass‐through coefficients for the exports of four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In addition, previous estimates of pass‐through as well as invoicing behaviour in East Asia are discussed in the context of regional integration. The new pass‐through coefficients are estimated under two alternate specifications for up to 34 goods for each of the four ASEAN countries destined for up to 13 major markets. The results suggest: (a) little pass‐through is occurring in Southeast Asia and (b) this lack of pass‐through is more likely attributable to the fact that they are small countries in a relatively integrated market, rather than evidence of pricing to market. The implications for regional monetary integration of this apparently low degree of pass‐through are detailed.     

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

We examine natural disasters and long‐run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find no direct effect of long‐run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin‐country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.     

Bilateral political relations and sovereign wealth fund investment

We examine the role of bilateral political relations in sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment decisions. Our empirical results suggest that political relations play a role in SWF decision making. Contrary to predictions based on the FDI and political relations literature, we find that relative to nations in which they do not invest, SWFs prefer to invest in nations with which they have weaker political relations. Using a two-stage Cragg model, we find that political relations are an important factor in where SWFs invest but matter less in determining how much to invest. Inconsistent with the FDI and political relations literature, these results suggest that SWFs behave differently than rational investors who maximize return while minimizing risk. Consistent with the trade and political relations literature, we find that SWF investment has a positive (negative) impact for relatively closed (open) countries. Our results suggest that SWFs use—at least partially—non-financial motives in investment decisions.     

Experience, information asymmetry, and rational forecast bias

This study examines whether it is ever rational for analysts to post biased estimates and how information asymmetry and analyst experience factor into the decision. Using a construct where analysts wish to minimize their forecasting error, we model forecasted earnings when analysts combine private information with consensus estimates to determine the optimal forecast bias, i.e., the deviation from the consensus. We show that the analyst??s rational bias increases with information asymmetry, but is concavely related with experience. Novice analysts post estimates similar to the consensus but as they become more experienced and develop private information channels, their estimates become biased and deviated from the consensus. Highly seasoned analysts, who have superior analytical skills and valuable relationships, need not post biased forecasts.     

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The Neglected Legacy of Lancashire Cotton: Industrial Clusters and the U.K. Outdoor Trade, 1960-1990

This article considers the neglected legacies of the Lancashirecotton industry and their impact on the U.K. outdoor trade.Studies of the decline of the Lancashire cotton industry afterthe Second World War have concentrated on the collapse of coarsecotton spinning and weaving, largely ignoring the impact ofthe knowledge and skills related to the finishing trades. Theexamination of the evolution of rainwear, coatings, and high-performancefabrics in the nineteenth century provides a backdrop to a studyof the innovation process that emerged in the U.K. outdoor tradeafter 1960. It shows that there was a path dependency betweenthe skills that resided in Lancashire’s finishing tradesand coating and fabric innovation for outdoor products. Thisarticle explores both the legacy and the ways in which the networksof innovation functioned as the U.K. outdoor trade expanded.     

The Volatility of Foreign Portfolio Investment and the Access to Finance of Small Listed Firms

This paper examines the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) volatility on the access to capital of small listed firms. The volatility of FPI is significantly associated with decreased access to finance for small listed firms only in years when nations are considered less “creditworthy.” Even in these times, however, the benefits of FPI are not completely depleted. These results underscore the significance of both a good financial system that minimizes capital flow volatility and national creditworthiness in inspiring confidence in foreign investors.