Evaluating Expert Systems in a Financial Domain: A Study Demonstrating Issues in Case Selection,Validation Standards and Evaluator Bias

This article describes and generalizes a validation study of four commercially available personal financial planning expert systems and the rationale for the research methodology used. Our evaluation of these systems adds to the understanding of verification and validation issues related to case selection, validation standards and evaluator bias. The article describes the systems, their domain and the empirical method—field tests using hypothetical cases—and relates that method to the literature. Comparing same-task systems combines multiple system perspectives and multiple models. Our methodology did efficiently and effectively identify conflicting terminology, omissions and system weaknesses but was inadequate for comparing the complex plan recommendations. The results re-emphasize the importance of continual knowledge base updating, formal system testing and the need for external evaluation. The results also show the value of comparing multiple, same-task systems.     

Crypto quanto and inverse options

Over 90% of exchange trading on crypto options has always been on the Deribit platform. This centralized crypto exchange only lists inverse products because they do not accept fiat currency. Likewise, other major crypto options platforms only list crypto–stablecoin trading pairs in so-called direct options, which are similar to the standard crypto options listed by the CME except the US dollar is replaced by a stablecoin version. Until now a clear mathematical exposition of these products has been lacking. We discuss the sources of market incompleteness in direct and inverse options and compare their pricing and hedging characteristics. Then we discuss the useful applications of currency protected “quanto” direct and inverse options for fiat-based traders and describe their pricing and hedging characteristics, all in the Black–Scholes setting.     

Consumer empowerment: global context,UK strategies and vulnerable consumers

Globalization has created new consumer needs and wants, and resulted in consumer confusion regarding the increasing complexity of products and services. This has stimulated global interest in educating and empowering consumers. The UK government has made a very ambitious commitment to ensure that the framework for consumer empowerment and support is at the level of the best in the world by 2008. The government, many consumer organizations and regulators believe that empowered consumers are key to the success of competitive markets. Two national strategies to co‐ordinate activities in the UK have been developed by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) and the Financial Services Authority (FSA). The OFT consumer education strategy aims to deliver targeted, effective consumer education by increasing co‐ordination and making the best use of available resources. The FSA is leading a financial capability strategy designed to deliver change to improve the UK's financial capability. Both strategies share a vision of educated and confident consumers making informed choices about the products and services they buy, and both aim to empower vulnerable consumers. Given the global interest and the development of national strategies, it is useful to consider what is meant by the term consumer empowerment. Is there a shared view of consumer empowerment internationally? Does the education of consumers result in empowered consumers? To what extent do the national strategies address the empowerment of vulnerable, disadvantaged, excluded or susceptible consumers? These questions will be addressed in this article which reviews the global context for the consumer education and empowerment agenda and considers key UK developments, with particular reference to the needs of vulnerable consumers. The study found that the language of consumer empowerment is gaining prominence in policy and strategy documents at the highest levels internationally in the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development and the European Community, and nationally in the UK.     

Retaining a diverse workforce: the impact of gender‐focused human resource management

Demography theory suggests that high gender diversity leads to high turnover. As turnover is costly, we tested the following: a main effect prediction derived from demography theory, and a moderating effect prediction derived from the relational framework. Data on 198 publicly listed organisations were collected through a human resources decision‐maker survey and archival databases. The results indicate that higher gender diversity leads to lower turnover in organisations with many gender‐focused policies and practices. Findings suggest that organisations can lower their turnover rates by increasing their gender diversity and by implementing gender‐focused policies and practices.     

Libraries in transition to a marketing orientation: are librarians' attitudes a barrier?

• This study examines librarians' attitudes toward the marketing of library services, as libraries continue their transition to a marketing orientation. Although prior studies had observed misunderstandings and hostility to marketing among librarians, most previous discussions of this topic were either speculative or based on extremely small samples. In order to provide more evidence in this matter, a large‐scale survey of members of the New Jersey Library Association (NJLA) was conducted. A ‘Pro Marketing’ scale was introduced and used to segment participants with respect to their attitudes. The findings indicate that most respondents expressed relatively positive attitudes toward marketing, but that more positive attitudes were expressed by public librarians than school or college/university librarians, and by administrators as opposed to reference and technical services librarians. Illustrative respondent comments and implications for library management are included.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CHILD MENTAL HEALTH AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: MULTIPLE OBSERVERS AND THE MEASUREMENT ERROR PROBLEM

We examine the effect of survey measurement error on the empirical relationship between child mental health and personal and family characteristics, and between child mental health and educational progress. Our contribution is to use unique UK survey data that contain (potentially biased) assessments of each child's mental state from three observers (parent, teacher and child), together with expert (quasi‐)diagnoses, using an assumption of optimal diagnostic behaviour to adjust for reporting bias. We use three alternative restrictions to identify the effect of mental disorders on educational progress. Maternal education and mental health, family income and major adverse life events are all significant in explaining child mental health, and child mental health is found to have a large influence on educational progress. Our preferred estimate is that a one‐standard‐deviation reduction in ‘true’ latent child mental health leads to a 2‐ to 5‐month loss in educational progress. We also find a strong tendency for observers to understate the problems of older children and adolescents compared to expert diagnosis. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Applied Econometrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Saving your rookie managers from themselves

Most organizations promote employees into managerial positions based on their technical competence. But very often, that kind of competence does not translate into good managerial performance. Many rookie managers fail to grasp how their roles have changed: that their jobs are no longer about personal achievement but about enabling others to achieve, that sometimes driving the bus means taking a backseat, and that building a team is often more important than cutting a deal. Even the best employees have trouble adjusting to these new realities, and that trouble can be exacerbated by the normal insecurities that may make rookie managers hesitant to ask for help. The dynamic unfolds something like this: As rookie managers internalize their stress, their focus, too, becomes increasingly internal. They become insecure and self-focused and cannot properly support their teams. Invariably, trust breaks down, staff members become alienated, and productivity suffers. In this article, coach and management consultant Carol Walker, who works primarily with rookie managers and their supervisors, addresses the five problem areas that rookie managers typically face: delegating, getting support from senior staffers, projecting confidence, thinking strategically, and giving feedback. You may think these elements sound like Management 101, and you'd be right, Walker writes. But these basic elements are also what trip up most managers in the early stages of their careers (and even, she admits, throughout their careers). The bosses of rookie managers have a responsibility to anticipate and address these problems; not doing so will hurt the rookie, the boss, and the company overall.