The great increase in relative wage volatility in the United States

Over the past 25 years, real average hourly wages in the United States have become substantially more volatile relative to output. Microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to show that this increase in relative volatility is predominantly due to increases in the relative volatility of hourly wages across different groups of workers. Compositional changes of the workforce, by contrast, account for only a small fraction of the increase in relative wage volatility. Simulations with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model illustrate that the observed increase in relative wage volatility is unlikely to come from changes outside of the labor market (e.g. smaller exogenous shocks or more aggressive monetary policy). By contrast, greater flexibility in wage setting due to deunionization and a shift towards performance-pay contracts as experienced by the U.S. labor market is capable of accounting for a substantial fraction of the observed increase in relative wage volatility. Greater wage flexibility also decreases the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, suggesting an interesting new explanation for the Great Moderation.     

Common information asymmetry factors in syndicated loan structures

This paper provides a comprehensive study of the syndicate structure and its relationship to information asymmetry and loan spread by using principal component analysis on a large set of 40 structure-related variables. A total of six structure components are identified and related to syndicate quality, syndicate members’ heterogeneity or share concentration, lead arranger’s characteristics, lead lender’s or syndicate’s location, lender–borrower relationships, and lead institution type. In multivariate settings, all six components are significant determinants of loan spread, either directly or indirectly through their impact on other components. Lead share retention, previous lender–borrower relationships and syndicate quality are shown to be bilaterally related to loan spread. Structure components differ regionally, which can provide an explanation for the European pricing discount observed in the literature. An Asian discount is observed and cannot be explained by structure differences.     

The Impact of Past Syndicate Alliances on the Consolidation of Financial Institutions

The impact of past syndicate alliances on the consolidation of financial institutions is examined. The odds of two lenders combining increases with the intensity and exclusivity of their prior syndicated loan alliances. The impact is higher for international mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and for prior syndicate co-relationships where the acquirer and target were participant and lead, respectively. The odds of a particular lender being a target decreases as its return on equity (ROE) and earnings/price (E/P) ratios increase and as its size and growth opportunities decrease. The intensity and exclusivity of the syndicated loan alliances leading up to M&A announcements are significantly higher for non-US versus US M&As. The significantly lower short- and long-term performances for both acquirers and targets with prior syndicate co-involvements disappear in the presence of control variables that account for the less frequent use of cash payments, the greater incidence of divestitures, and the higher percentage of shares acquired through their M&As. Acquirers with versus those without past syndicate target co-involvements exhibit greater outperformance for control-firm benchmarked ROEs and lower underperformance for control-firm and prior-to-M&A benchmarked ROEs.     

Balancing Civil Rights With Safety at Work: Workplace Violence and the ADA

Workplace violence has become an increasingly common occurrence in recent years. During the years 1992–1996, there were over 5,000 job-related homicides in the United States, and in 1996 alone there were 1,364 nonfatal assaults committed by coworkers or former coworkers. Although it would be both inaccurate and inappropriate to suggest that these acts have generally been committed by persons suffering from severe emotional and mental disorders, this is clearly one of the possible explanations. In light of these facts and given the recent Equal Employment Opportunity Commission's Guidance on the Americans with Disabilities Act and Psychiatric Disabilities, the obligations and prerogatives of employers in terms of hiring and posthiring actions need to be discussed. This paper examines the legal issues, the EEOC's Guidance, and offers specific suggestions for developing an effective hiring process, as well as methods to use when dealing with current employees who pose a threat of violence because of mental and emotional disorders.     

The Impact of Time Pressure and Information on Negotiation Process and Decisions

The amount of time available to reach an agreement, information about a negotiator's own position, and information about the opponent's position were manipulated in a simulated contract negotiation. As in decision making research, time pressure in negotiation was expected to decrease response time and change response strategy. Information was expected to be an advantage to negotiators when clarifying their preferences but a disadvantage if information about competing opponent interests was present. Results supported this expectation. Different patterns of concessions and in concessions and inconsistencies were found under high and low time pressure and type of information.     

An Affirmative Defense to Sexual Harassment by Managers and Supervisors: Analyzing Employer Liability and Protecting Employee Rights in the United States

Sexual harassment in the workplace is a serious worldwide employment problem. In the United States, courts have taken an increasingly expansive view of both employers' obligations and employees' rights in dealing with the issue. Landmark decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court addressing harassment by supervisors have sought to provide further guidance to employers in order to prevent harassment and refine their obligations. Yet despite the Court's efforts, harassment claims brought on by supervisor conduct continue to be a matter of great concern. This article offers a brief overview of U.S. sexual harassment law including its affirmative defense and provides a decision protocol for employers operating in the U.S. to follow in determining whether or not an affirmative defense can be confidently asserted. Finally management practices that respond to legal principles of an affirmative defense to prevent liability and protect employee rights are presented and discussed.     

Are current syndicated loan alliances related to past alliances?

The odds of a current syndicate relationship between two lenders depend upon their previous alliances. The odds are significantly higher [lower] and strongest for a current lead–participant relationship with a continuation [reversal] of their previous roles. To illustrate, the odds are nearly four times higher when two lenders have allied in the previous 5 years. The strength of lead–participant syndicate relationships between two lenders with same-ordered roles is most sensitive to the lead bank’s reputation and informationally opaque participants tend to have stronger relationships with lead banks. Lenders exhibit home bias in their syndicate alliances since ongoing relationships are stronger with domestic counterparts.     

Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database

We present a new, publicly available database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections, which will be updated on an annual basis. We describe the data construct, its variables, coverage, and frequency. We then provide a forecast evaluation for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index (CPI) inflation and the policy rate since 1982: We compare the staff's forecasts with those from commonly used time series models estimated with the real-time data, and with forecasts from other professional forecasters, and provide standard bias tests. Finally, we study changes in predictability of the Canadian economy following the announcement of the inflation-targeting regime in 1991. Our data set is unprecedented outside the USA, and our evidence is particularly interesting, as it covers over 30 years of staff forecasts, two severe recessions, and different monetary policy regimes.