A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences

Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 listings of housing rents over the last 20 years. We start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications for aggregate price dynamics, closely following the empirical strategy proposed by Caballero (Caballero and Engel, 2007). We find that 90% of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the United States. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state-dependent but time-dependent. These two results indicate that both the intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are small, resulting in a slow response of the CPI for rent to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by 1% point during the bubble period, and lower by more than 1% point during the period following the burst of the bubble, if Japanese housing rents were as flexible as those in the United States.     

Semiparametric Model of Hedonic Housing Prices in Japan

We propose a semiparametric hedonic model of housing prices with nonlinearity in age and cohort effects. The model avoids the simultaneity problem among age, cohort and year effects, which is a common problem in linear hedonic models. Applying the model to housing prices in Tokyo between 1990 and 2008 revealed significant nonlinearities in both the age and cohort effects, and significant interactions between these effects, with the shape of the age effect differing across housing cohorts. Estimates of the year effect indicated a declining trend in prices that was more pronounced compared with those of conventional linear hedonic models.     

Resonant R&D structure for effective technology development amidst megacompetition—an empirical analysis of smart cooperative R&D structure in Japan’s transport machinery industry

Under the megacompetition in globalizing economy while facing long lasting economic stagnation, the effective utilization of potential resources for innovation has become a crucial strategy for R&D intensive industries. The construction of a smart cooperative R&D structure has thus become significant. Among Japan’s R&D intensive industries, the transport machinery industry has constructed an effective cooperative R&D structure by smartly complementing both comparatively advantageous and disadvantageous technologies by means of integrating the effective utilization of technology spillover and joint collaborative R&D.Prompted by this complementing system, this paper attempts to elucidate the mechanism enabling the transport machinery industry to construct the smart cooperative R&D structure. Resonant R&D structure is identified as a source of such R&D cooperation leading to increasing its marginal productivity of technology.     

Farm Level Costs of Agri‐environment Measures: The Impact of Entry Level Stewardship on Cereal Farm Incomes

Applying a difference‐in‐difference approach with propensity score matching, we examine the impact of participation in the Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) scheme on cereal farm incomes in eastern England. We assess the extent to which impacts are related to a) the source of income affected – whether only from agricultural or total business income; b) the channel of the impact – through land use and/or labour input; and c) the level of impacts through time. In addition, we assess the appropriateness of the level of the ELS payment. We find that: a) entering the ELS scheme could negatively affect cereal farm incomes – in particular, the total business income; b) that negative impacts arise primarily in relation to the use of land resources; c) that impacts may diminish over a relatively short period of time; and d) that the ELS payment broadly compensates for losses without providing over compensation. Given the diminishing negative impact over time, the level of ELS payment might need to be reviewed in the longer term, although policy evaluation should consider the wider implications for efficiency of alternative payment levels. We also discuss some limitations of the approach and potential extensions.     

Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble,Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods

In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations, reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods.

Functionality development dynamism in a diffusion trajectory: A case of Japan's mobile phones development

While it is generally accepted that Information Technology (IT) has a self-propagating function which ensures that the more widespread its use, the greater its functionality, its emerging dynamism remains a black box.This paper attempts to shed some light on this dynamism through utilizing monthly trend data for the number of Japan's mobile phone subscribers over the last 12 years. A bi-logistic growth model demonstrating the diffusion trajectory initiated by both generations of mobile phones was constructed, with the goal of identifying the increase in the functionality development in the transition from traditional mobile phones with a simple communication function (1st wave mobile phone) to mobile phones with an Internet protocol function (2nd wave mobile phone).Through an empirical analysis utilizing the bi-logistic growth model, it was determined that the 2nd wave mobile phone emerged at an earlier stage of diffusion trajectory than the 1st stage mobile phone, which enabled a sustainable functionality development in Japan's mobile phones over the decade.Factors governing a dramatic decrease in mobile phones prices were analyzed, utilizing the result of the measurement of functionality development. This led to the discovery that while an increase in functionality development enhanced the price of mobile phones, this increase accelerated self-propagating diffusion, thereby enabling a dramatic reduction in prices through the effects of learning exercise and economies of scale.Based on the foregoing findings, the driving forces of self-propagating functionality development were analyzed, and it was determined that effective utilization of potential resources in innovation (e.g., assimilation of spillover technology and learning effects) is the key driving forces behind self-propagating functionality development.     

Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the balance sheets and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the balance sheet accounts for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder's model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REIT. The problems associated with the decomposition of property value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.     

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEXES AND THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts (SNA). Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components of a commercial property are required in the Production Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the SNA. The paper reviews existing methods for constructing an overall Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and concludes that most methods are biased (due to their neglect of depreciation) and more importantly, not able to provide separate land and structure subindexes. A class of hedonic regression models that is not subject to these problems is discussed.