Individual and place-based drivers of self-employment in Chile

This paper analyzes the importance of individual and place characteristics on the selection into self-employment in Chile. Following a structural and multilevel empirical approach, we test whether both sets of variables explain the variation of individual wages, self-employed earnings, and the propensity of being in independent work. The results indicate that while most of the variation in these three outcomes is explained by individuals’ traits, place-related variables account for a non-negligible share of spatial variation. Second, as suggested by occupational choice theories, the propensity of being in self-employment positively correlates with larger expected earning differentials, but only in the case of employers. This, along with other results, suggests that while employers seem to choose their occupational status, own accounts in Chile seem to respond to factors pushing them into self-employment.     

Forecasting the liquidity of very small private companies

Short-term liquidity of very small private companies (VSPCs) is important to creditors as any cash shortages result in opportunity costs due to delayed payments. We use a publicly available liquidity indicator for 19,627 Slovenian VSPCs as a special, but generalizable case of “credit record” data and financial ratios to predict possible cash shortages. Indicator is predicted and used in lagged form(s) as a predictive variable with/without financial ratios, allowing comparisons. Models, including financial ratios, are less efficient than models based on lagged liquidity indicator alone. Surprisingly, combined models perform only marginally better. Despite high overall accuracy, misclassification of companies experiencing cash shortages is high.     

Evaluating social welfare and redistributive effects of Spanish personal income tax reform

Spain has recently concluded a process of wide-ranging reform of its personal income tax (IRPF), in force since 1992. The new IRPF is applicable from 1999 onward. The aim of this article is to analyse the implications of this tax reform for the distribution of personal income, and additionally to provide a comparative evaluation in terms of social welfare of both taxes. Empirical analysis is performed by a simulation exercise, employing the microdata contained in the Institute of Fiscal Studies’?IRPF Panel of Taxpayers. The analysis shows that the new IRPF induces a redistributive effect slightly lower than the old IRPF. The greater redistributive potential of the progressive structure of the new tax proves to be insufficient to compensate for the contrary effect caused by reduction in the level of tax liability. However, this new tax unambigously permits, in an inequality-adverse society, a higher level of social welfare than that attained by the old tax.     

Understanding the resource curse (or blessing) across national and regional scales: Theory,empirical challenges and an application

The relationship between resource extraction activity and economic growth has been widely studied in the literature, and the resource curse hypotheses emerged as a theory to explain the effects of resource windfalls on national economies. However, within countries, resource booms and busts can have distinctive effects across local economies, as extractive regions face particular economic consequences unlikely to be observed in nonresource regions. Empirically, most studies analysing the resource curse have relied on cross‐country models to estimate effects and inform policy; however, the use of regional – within‐country – analysis has gained attention from scholars lately, promoted by two advantages: it avoids unobserved country heterogeneities confounding economic outcomes caused by resources and exploits the subnational quasi‐natural experimental conditions generated by endowments. This paper contributes to the resource curse literature by discussing its theoretical causes across scale (regional vs. national effects) and highlighting the empirical challenges involved in the analysis of mining economic impacts across regions. We complement the discussions by econometrically modelling economic growth across nonmetropolitan substate regions of Australia during a period of resource windfalls, finding that in most cases, resources have been a blessing for local economies, although negative effects have also been experienced in parts of the country.     

Big Players in Slovenia

The subjectivism of Austrian economics helps to explain the statistical fact of long memory in asset prices. The theory of Big Players is an Austrian approach to understanding the effects of discretionary policymaking in markets. It leads to implications that can be tested with statistics. In particular, Big Players induce herding and, thereby, an increase of persistence in asset prices. A recent episode in Slovenian monetary theory provides a case study. This case study adds to a set of similar studies, all tending to support the theory of Big Players.     

What do women want? Female suffrage and the size of government

The economic literature has attributed part of the increase in government expenditure over the 20th century to female voting. This is puzzling, considering that the political science literature has documented that women tended to be more conservative than men over the first half of the 20th century. We argue that the current estimates of this relationship are afflicted by endogeneity bias. Using data for 46 countries and a novel set of instruments related to the diffusion of female suffrage across the globe, we find that, on average, the introduction of female suffrage did not increase either social expenditures or total government expenditure.     

Do Federal Home Loan Bank membership and advances increase bank risk-taking?

Since the early 1990s, commercial banks have turned to Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLBank) advances to plug the gap between loan and deposit growth. Is this trend worrisome? On the one hand, advances implicitly encourage risk by insulating borrowers from market discipline. On the other, advances give borrowers greater flexibility to managing interest rate and liquidity risk. And access to FHLBank funding encourages members to reshape their balance sheets in ways that could lower credit risk. Using quarterly financial and supervisory data for banks from 1992 to 2005, we assess the effect of FHLBank membership and advances on risk. The evidence suggests liquidity and leverage risks rose modestly, but interest-rate risk declined somewhat. Credit risk and overall failure risk were largely unaffected. Although the evidence suggest FHLBank membership and advances have had, at best, only a modest impact on bank risk, we caution that our sample period constitutes one observation and that moral hazard could be pronounced if leverage ratios revert to historical norms.     

Repurchasing Shares on a Second Trading Line

This paper studies a unique buyback method allowing firms toreacquire their own shares on a separate trading line whereonly the firm is allowed to buy shares. This share repurchasemethod is called the Second Trading Line and has been extensivelyused by Swiss companies since 1997. This type of repurchaseis unique for two reasons. First, unlike open market programs,the repurchasing company does not trade anonymously. Second,all transactions made by the repurchasing firm are publiclyavailable in real time to every market participant. This isa case of instantaneous disclosure which contrasts sharply withother markets characterized by delayed or no disclosure. Wedocument that the daily repurchase decision is statisticallyassociated with short-term price changes and the release offirm-specific news. We also find that repurchases on the secondtrading line have a beneficial impact on the liquidity of repurchasingfirms. Exchanges and regulators may consider the second tradingline an attractive share reacquisition mechanism because ofits transparency and positive liquidity effects.     

Control Premium and Corporate Regulatory Changes: Theory and Evidence

We propose a model to estimate the private benefits of control in control transfer transactions for a broad range of regulatory environments, from private negotiations to mandatory tender offers. The Barclay and Holderness' and Dyck and Zingales' Block Premium models are nested as special cases. With corporate control transfer regulation around the world moving from the Market Rule to the Equal Opportunity Rule, our theoretical model is a flexible tool for empirical studies. We apply our model to study the effect of the implementation of Chile's Tender Offer Law in 2000 and find that control premiums fell significantly. This drop is statistically unrelated to the targets' affiliation to an economic group. Our results suggest that improved corporate governance practices and the Equal Opportunity Rule alignment effect reduced the scope for extraction of private benefits of control.