On the Aggregate Value of Recreational Activities: A Nested Price Index Approach Using Poisson Demand Systems

An important consideration in the development ofregulations and policies that administer naturalresources in an area is the value of the non-marketactivities supported by those lands. Little attentionhas been paid to the aggregate value of largegeographic areas. This analysis builds autility-theoretic price index and utilizes this indexto estimate an aggregate Poisson demand to valuebackcountry recreational hiking opportunities innorthern California.     

Augmenting travel cost models with contingent behavior data

This paper proposes contingent behavior survey questions as a valuable supplement to observed data in travel cost models of non-market demand for recreational resources. A set of observed and contingent behavior results for each survey respondent allows the researcher to control for individual heterogeneity by taking advantage of panel data methods when exploring the nature of respondent demands. The contingent scenarios also provide opportunities to (a) test for differences between observed and contingent preferences and/or (b) assess likely demands under conditionsbeyond the domain of observed variation in costs or resource attributes. Most importantly, contingent scenarios allow the researcher to imposeexogenously varying travel costs. Exogenous imposition of travel costs together with panel methods reduces the omitted variables bias that plagues observed-data travel cost models of recreational demand. Using a convenience sample of data for illustrative purposes, we show how to estimate the demand for recreational angling by combining observed and contingent behavior data. We begin with simple naive pooled Poisson models and progress to more theoretically appropriate fixed effects panel Poisson specifications.The authors are at the University of Nevada and UCLA, respectively. We gratefully acknowledge the comments of both Scott Shonkwiler and participants in the W133 meetings in Santa Fe, New Mexico and for research material provided by Wayne Gray. The data were provided by Rang Narayanan. Research assistance was provided by Jerry McGraw and Natalie Tucker. Research partially supported by the Nevada Experiment Station. Any errors or omissions remain the authors' responsibility.     

Alternative Models of Recreational Off-Highway Vehicle Site Demand

A controversial recreation activity is off-highway vehicle use. Off-highway vehicle use is controversial because it is incompatible with most other activities and is extremely hard on natural eco-systems. This study estimates utility theoretic incomplete demand systems for four off-highway vehicle sites. Since two sets of restrictions are equally consistent with utility theory both are imposed and the best fitting restrictions are identified using Voung’s non-nested testing scheme. The demand system is modeled using both Poisson and negative binomial II distributions. Data are provided by a survey conducted at four recreational off-highway vehicle (OHV) sites in western North Carolina.     

Welfare Losses Due to Livestock Grazing on Public Lands: A Count Data Systemwide Treatment

Backcountry hikers' willingness-to-pay for removing grazing from trails in the Hoover Wilderness is analyzed using a multinomial Dirichlet negative binomial distribution. This multivariate discrete distribution allows the direct calculation of seasonal welfare measures that are derived from an incomplete demand specification. The welfare maximizing choice of activities is examined on a trail-by-trail basis using the results of the analysis. Our findings suggest that a mix of hiking and grazing activities provide the greatest social welfare.     

The Dynamic Response of Housing Values to a Forest Invasive Disease: Evidence from a Sudden Oak Death Infestation

“Sudden Oak Death” (Phytophthora ramorum) is a non-indigenous forest pathogen which causes substantial mortality of coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other oak tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimated the time path of residential property values subject to oak mortality using a dataset that spans more than two decades—including a decade of transactions before-and-after the invasion. The findings suggest moderate, persistent property value discounts (3–6%) for homes located near infested oak woodlands subject to continuous post-invasion declines in forest health. The most severe discounts (8–15%) occurred where dying oaks were distributed both within residential neighborhoods and in nearby woodlands. Various hedonic modeling specifications were tested and compared to assess their ability to control for bias associated with unobserved spatial effects.     

Utility theoretic semi-logarithmic incomplete demand systems in a natural experiment: Forest fire impacts on recreational values and use

This study develops a utility theoretic demand model for an arbitrary number of goods that handles correlation between goods and over time. The bivariate compound Poisson estimator is applied to a semi-logarithmic incomplete demand system to estimate the demand for wilderness recreation and the associated welfare measures both prior to and post a 40,000 acre wilderness fire in Washington. Forest fires can simultaneously affect the environmental qualities of many recreational sites; this highlights the need for a utility theoretic demand system approach for modeling consumer behavior that handles the dynamic behavioral and statistical interdependencies over goods and time. Results suggest an increase in consumer welfare per trip post fire, after an initial period of low values, relative to before the fire.     

The Value of Snowfall to Skiers and Boarders

An interesting winter sport phenomenon inrecent years has been the growth ofsnowboarding. Snowboarding has outpaced skiingat many resorts and has become the snow ridingactivity of choice for many young people. Thisstudy develops an empirical demand model forwinter sport trips amongst college studentsfrom both camps and estimates economic welfareassociated with the two different activities. The results show that both trip demand andsurplus values are strongly affected by snowconditions. These effects are distinctlydifferent for the two consumer groups.     

Modeling the Demand for Sicilian Regional Parks: A Compound Poisson Approach

This analysis examines the demand for a system of regional parks in Sicily (Italy). The analysis utilizes conventional count data methods that do not account for correlation across parks as well as a new model that allows for cross-site correlation and dispersion. In this model, the degree of dispersion and cross-site correlation is shown to evolve as individual grow older. Older individuals exhibit less dispersion and/or cross-site correlation.     

Measuring angling quality in count data models of recreational fishing

This paper develops a methodology for investigating different specifications of angling quality in recreational demand models. The methodology is used to compare three alternative specifications of the relationship between angling demand and site quality. The site quality alternatives include chemical concentrations, biological stress indices based on the chemicals, and catch per unit effort. The three alternatives are differentiated using a likelihood ratio non-nested testing procedure.     

When are Forest Visits Valued the Most? An Analysis of the Seasonal Demand for Forest Recreation in Poland

While the demand for forest recreation has been a topic covered in many studies, little attention has been paid so far to seasonal demand. In a forest context, the seasonal analysis is particularly interesting because of inter-temporal change in forest attributes throughout the year which can influence trip-taking behavior. In this paper, the model of seasonal forest visitation is developed to provide a richer understanding of the role played by seasonal fluctuation on a distribution of forest social benefits. The analysis is based on an on-site survey conducted in four forests in Poland. Results show that the most valuable forest trips are those taken in fall and that seasonal trips are separable.