INDONESIAN TRADE LIBERALISATION: ESTIMATING THE GAINS

Indonesia has undergone comprehensive trade liberalisation by participating in multilateral and regional trade arrangements and by conducting unilateral liberalisation. This paper evaluates the different paths of liberalisation the country has followed, and measures their effects on the economy. It considers the impact of several liberalisation scenarios: unilateral liberalisation; regional liberalisation through APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) and AFTA (the ASEAN Free Trade Area); and multilateral trade liberalisation through the Uruguay Round (UR). The results show that the full implementation of UR and APEC liberalisation would greatly benefit Indonesia, and that unilateral liberalisation, carried out in conjunction with the UR commitment, would lead to large welfare gains. On the other hand, the creation of AFTA is expected to add little to welfare in Indonesia or in the other ASEAN member countries.     

Migration, Fixed Costs, and Location-Specific Amenities: A Hazard Analysis for a Panel of Males

This article presents econometric estimates of the adult working-age male hazard function of interstate migration fitted to data obtained from migration decisions of adult males over a twenty-year period. The results show a strong negative effect of the real wage difference between origin and destination, and of fixed costs associated with a move, on the hazard rate of interstate migration. Farmers and other self-employed males, and males who have school-age children, have unusually low hazard rates of interstate migration. Although a high crime rate is shown to increase the real wage, it also has a separate positive effect on the hazard of migration.