hayek's economics

The dispersal of information in the economy is the key to Hayek's analysis of economic planning, the trade cycle and entrepreneurship. Gerald Steele, a lecturer at Lancaster University, explores Hayek's analysis. The function of the market is to coordinate this dispersed information.     

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EURO?

The Stability Pact ‐ intended to make EMU governments run prudent budgets ‐ is losing its credibility. This article asks the question: what will happen if national debts start to rise again and some governments then have difficulty borrowing? It suggests that there will be calls for bailout, that the EU's political structures will not cope well with the resulting arguments over which countries will pay, and that the eventual and painful result will be a return to the principle that currencies and political areas coincide.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

David Vaught. After the Gold Rush: Tarnished Dreams in the Sacramento Valley

While historians have paid a great deal of attention to theminers who flocked to California during the Gold Rush, theyhave generally ignored those Argonauts who failed to strikeit rich, but nevertheless remained in the regions surroundingthe goldfields. In his ambitious, richly detailed, but ultimatelyuneven community history, David Vaught directs his attentionto those neglected failures, specifically migrants drawn fromeastern and Midwestern farm communities, pointing out that "[f]arfrom vanishing into the landscape, these farmers, still in theprime of their     

Contrasting corporate profiles: Women and minority representation in top management positions

This paper investigates the characteristics of firms which have underrepresented groups in top management positions and those which do not. It is argued that profiles of these characteristics will be different for firms with minorities vs. women and that these profiles will be different depending on whether representation is by board membership or through officerships. A discriminant analysis found both similarities and differences in variables that were associated with these different forms of representation. It was found, for example, that size is associated with representation for both minorities and women, whereas high advertising intensity is associated with firms with women on board, but not as officers. Other findings and the implications of the study are discussed.Jerry Fryxell is an Assistant Professor of Management at the University of Tennessee — Knoxville. His current research interests are in the area of corporate culture, innovation, and strategic management.Linda Lerner is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Management at the University of Tennessee — Knoxville. Her current research interests include strategic management, social issues, and corporate governance. She has over ten years of management and consulting experience.     

Duration gaps with futures and swaps for managing interest rate risk at depository institutions

Duration gaps for depository institutions are derived for economic net worth, economic net income, and book value interest income. The duration gaps previously constructed for on-balance sheet accounts are expanded to off-balance sheet accounts, including futures contracts and swap agreements. These expanded duration gaps are indicators of the sensitivity of the market value of net worth and income measures to interest rate fluctuations. Managers of depository institutions can establish these duration gaps as targets and can utilize futures markets and swap agreements to affect the target values. The developments in this article are based on a single factor model of interest rate movements, but the results can be extended.The work in this article is based partly on Bierwag and Kaufman (1989), a study prepared for and funded by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. We have benefited from comments of discussants and participants at presentations at HEC Jouy-en-Josas, the meetings of the European Finance Association, and seminars at the University of Delaware, Loyola University of Chicago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Florida State University, and the University of Illinois, Chicago.     

Did Hayek have a monetary theory of business cycles?

Joseph Schumpeter, a careful reader of Hayek, categorized Hayek??s theory of economic cycles as non-monetary. Almost every other source, including Hayek himself, categorized the theory as monetary. The issue turns on the concept of causality being used. The question of what causality concept to apply to complex phenomena has substantive implications for economic theory. A simple concept of causality, appropriate to the study of some physical phenomena, will mislead when applied to complex phenomena. We provide examples of errors in analysis that follow from the wrong choice of a causal paradigm.     

The welfare effects of import “subquotas” on heterogeneous product categories

In spite of its importance to policy makers, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the welfare effects of one aspect of trade policy-how to implement an import quota that applies to a heterogeneous product category. The government can impose a simple quota that applies indiscriminately to all goods within the product category or it can divide the quota among them with subquotas. In this paper, we analyze the welfare effects of subquotas. Under certain simplifying assumptions we find that a system of subquotas nearly always exists that provides greater welfare than a simple quota for a large country that retains quota rights or for a large or small country that gives quota rights away to foreigners. However, subquotas cannot increase the welfare of a small country that retains quota rights. The difference lies in the effect of imports on the home country's terms of trade.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the US International Trade Commission. The authors are grateful for helpful comments on an earlier draft by anonymous referees.