Developments in the international distribution of income

The question of income distribution played a very important role in practical and theoretical development policy during the seventies. World market conditions were blamed for the fact that the income gap between industrialised countries and developing countries was widening. The demands to which this has given rise range from calls for “greater reliance on market forces”, “modification of the market form” and “greater market intervention” to insistence on the complete abolition of free market relationships. How has the relative income position of various groups of developing countries evolved in the last few decades?     

Zwischenbilanz: Krisengewinner und -verlierer

Die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise hat sich seit 2008 entfaltet. Seitdem gibt es verschiedene Versuche, ihre Folgen durch Rettungsschirme, Konjunkturprogramme und gesetzliche Regelungen in den Griff zu bekommen. Immer dringender stellt sich auch angesichts des jüngst vorgestellten Sparprogramms der Bundesregierung die Frage, wer tats?chlich von diesen Ma?nahmen profi tiert, wer sie bezahlen muss und ob die Verursacher der Krise angemessen an den Kosten der Schadensregulierung beteiligt werden.     

Do public budget deficits crowd out private capital expenditures?

Those economists who expected the increasing US budget deficits in recent years to have a negative impact on private investment spending have so far been proved wrong. Hans-Peter Fröhlich provides an analysis of what has happened and examines the interrelation between public sector deficits and private capital expenditures.     

Nach der Krise: Wirksame Regelungen auf dem Finanzmarkt?

Schon w?hrend der Krise hat auf allen politischen Ebenen eine lebhafte Diskussion über eine bessere Finanzmarktregulierung eingesetzt. Einig war man sich nur in wenigen Bereichen. Und von der Umsetzung etwaiger Reformen ist die Politik noch weit entfernt. Allerdings ist auch fraglich, ob die Ansatzpunkte überhaupt richtig gew?hlt sind.     

Talking by numbers — Communicated uncertainty of the ECB

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifi cally, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in offi cial ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different levels of communicated uncertainty. The appeasement through low uncertainty communication levels is particularly pronounced during times of fi nancial distress. Further, the analysis shows that the ECB tried to alert the market through an increasing level of communicated uncertainty prior to the outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis.     

Foreign direct investment in economic transition: the changing pattern of investments

Foreign direct investment into transition economies is reviewed in detail, both from aggregate data and from a survey of senior managers in 117 western manufacturing companies. It is found that host country transition progress, political stability and perceived risk influence FDI inflows as well as the predominant type of investment.     

The 52-week high strategy and information uncertainty

This paper examines the driver of the 52-week high strategy, which is long in stocks close to their 52-week high price and short in stocks with a price far below their one-year high, and tests the hypothesis that this strategy’s profitability can be explained by anchoring—a behavioral bias. To test the null, we examine whether the 52-week high criterion has more predictive power in cases of larger information uncertainty. This hypothesis is based on the psychological insight that behavioral biases increase in uncertainty. For six proxies of ambiguity, we document a positive relationship to returns of 52-week high winner stocks and a negative relationship to returns of 52-week high loser stocks. The opposite effect of information uncertainty on winner and loser stocks implies that the 52-week high profits are increasing in uncertainty measures. Moreover, the study documents that the six variables have a similar impact on momentum profits. Hence, we cannot reject the hypothesis that anchoring explains the profits of the 52-week high strategy and that it is the driver of the momentum anomaly.