A brief technology assessment of the Carbon Dioxide effect

Significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are occuring as a result of fossil fuel combustion. More than a four-fold increase over preindustrial levels may occur by the year 2100. Heating of the atmosphere, changes in precipitation patterns and global storm paths, and other resulting effects are sure to cause significant social changes. This article is essentially a methodological case study demonstrating a useful but inexpensive type of technology assessment. It summarizes current research findings on “the CO₂ effect,” and presents hitherto unpublished findings that resulted from a brief but systems-oriented approach. These findings suggest that most published forecasts of phenomena associated with a CO₂ buildup may be systematically low because various positive feedback relationships are not reflected.     

Alternative indexes for monitoring customer perceptions of service quality: A comparative evaluation in a retail context

Customer satisfaction and service quality measures obtained through consumer surveys invariably have skewed distributions. As such, researchers have questioned the appropriateness of the popular approach of using the mean rating to summarize such data. However, no detailed study on this topic has yet been conducted. In two independent studies, the relative validity of the various indexes that can be used to summarize consumer’s service quality ratings (e.g., mean, median, mode, kurtosis, skewness, top/bottom-tail percentiles) are examined. In Study 1, using typical commercial survey data from a fast-food/convenience retail chain, both the mean and top-box percentiles are found to be the best indicators of service quality, based on their correlation with customer-driven business performance measures. In Study 2, the results are further confirmed by an extensive simulation that varies factors such as the shape of the underlying distribution of customer ratings and the strength of the relationship between customer ratings and business performance measures. The article concludes with a discussion of the findings and implications for future research. Robert F. Hurley is an assistant professor of marketing at Fordham University. He received his M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania and his Ph.D. from Columbia University. His research has been published in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Advances in Services Marketing and Management, theJournal of Business Research, California Management Review, theJournal of Applied Social Psychology, theJournal of Marketing Theory and Practice, and theJournal of Engineering and Technology Management. Hooman Estelami is an assistant professor of marketing at Fordham University. He received his M.B.A. from McGill University and his Ph.D. from Columbia University. His research has been published in theJournal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior, Pricing Strategy and Practice, Middle East Insight, Advances in Consumer Research, theJournal of Professional Services Marketing, and theJournal of Business in Developing Nations.     

Investing in Health: A Macroeconomic Exploration of Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs

This paper aims to unravel the competing effects of health investment. It explores, both analytically and numerically, the equilibrium shift and transitional dynamics after a one-time policy of health investment. We find that such a policy improves health status in the long run, but harms economic growth in both the short- and long-term. The relative sizes of these competing effects depend on the specific health parameters. Within the plausible range for the value of health relative to consumption, households gain welfare in the long run as long as the effectiveness of labor in health production is large. The expanded health sector policy makes households worse off only if labor is rather unproductive in producing health and if households value health relatively little. Nevertheless, the findings challenge the policy recommendations of the World Bank (1993) and World Health Organization (2001) in that good health does not necessarily increase the productivity of workers and the economic growth rate. We hope that the relative simplicity of our model, compared to the existing theoretical literature, can help close the gap between formal academic work on this topic and actual debates among policy makers in both developed and developing countries.     

Exchange rate volatility and the role of regional currency linkages: the ASEAN case

As the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have moved towards closer economic ties and trade integration in recent years, the establishment of exchange rate stability is becoming an important regional policy concern, particularly in the wake of the Asian currency crisis of 1997. This paper examines the exchange rate volatility of the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand between 1974 and 1999. Using variance decomposition (VDC) methods and impulse response functions, which are VAR-related estimation techniques, the study also investigates the regional currency linkages which may have played a role in transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. The results indicate that, in spite of the adoption of the crawling peg exchange regime following the breakup of the Bretton Woods system, all of the five ASEAN currencies experienced volatility, with the Indonesian rupiah posting the highest volatility level. The switch to de facto pegging against the US dollar in the mid-1980s helped to stabilize all ASEAN currencies with the exception of the Malaysian ringgit. Each of the five currencies became more susceptible to instabilities in other ASEAN currencies in the post-1985 period. Consistent with the experience of the Asian currency crisis, the Thai baht was the main channel through which regional currency fluctuations were transmitted.     

Do native and invasive labels affect consumer willingness to pay for plants? Evidence from experimental auctions

Ornamental plant sales have been identified as an important vector for the introduction of invasive plants. Increased concerns about the economic and ecological costs of invasive plants have spawned interest in identifying strategies to curtail introductions. One possible strategy is labeling plants based on whether they are invasive or native. The primary purpose of this paper was to explore how labeling plants based on invasive and native attributes might affect consumer demand. To accomplish this objective, a second price auction was used to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) for plants with and without labels. On average, we found a $0.35 premium for plants labeled as noninvasive and native and a $1.01 to $1.66 discount for plants labeled as invasive. The size of these premiums and discounts differed in relation to various demographic, attitudinal, and preference‐related factors. Overall, our results suggest that labeling plants as invasive or native could be a viable strategy for reducing the introduction of invasive plants.     

The decision to trust

Surveys have shown that 80% of Americans don't trust corporate executives and--worse--that roughly half of all managers don't trust their own leaders. Mergers, downsizing, and globalization have accelerated the pace of change in organizations, creating a crisis of trust that didn't exist a generation ago. Leaders who understand how trust is built can actively influence its development, resulting in a more supportive and productive work environment and, not incidentally, a competitive advantage in the war for talent. Building on research in social psychology, and on his 15 years of experience consulting on trust, the author has developed a model for predicting whether trust or distrust will be chosen in a given situation. It helps managers analyze ten factors at play in the decision-making process. Hundreds of top executives have used it to diagnose and address the root causes of distrust in their work relationships. Some of the factors in the model relate to the decision maker: How tolerant of risk, how well-adjusted, and how relatively powerful is he or she? Others relate to the specific situation: How closely aligned are the interests of the parties concerned? Does the person who is asking to be trusted demonstrate competence? Predictability and integrity? Frequent and honest communication? Sue, a relatively new VP of sales, used the trust model to manage her relationship with Joe, an employee nearing retirement who was not performing well in a new sales role. Fearing for his job, Joe wasn't initially inclined to trust her. Sue took concrete steps to communicate openly with Joe, explore other options for him, and show concern for his well-being. When joe was transferred, he let his former colleagues know how pleased he was with Sue's handling of the situation. As a result, the level of trust increased in Sue's department, even though it was experiencing major change.     

Managing the Risk of European Corn Borer Resistance to Bt Corn

New pesticidal crops are taking advantage of advances in geneticengineering. For example, corn has been engineered to express Bt proteinsthat are toxic to the European corn borer. These crops are effective pestmanagement tools for United States growers. However, there is concern thatpests will develop resistance to these crops resulting in the increased useof more hazardous pesticides. The purpose of this paper is to develop astochastic dynamic bioeconomic simulation model to help guide regulatorypolicy designed to mitigate the threat of resistance to new pesticidal crops.The model is used to evaluate the insect resistance management guidelinesmandated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for theuse of Bt corn in the Midwestern United States.     

Simple tests of target zones: the Irish case

In a small open economy with fixed exchange rates, tandard theory suggests that domestic inflation and interest rates should equal those abroad. In a credible target zone, the same theories suggest that inflation and interest rates should be ‘close’. Here, we seek to make precise this idea of limits on inflation and interest rate differentials consistent with limits on exchange rate movements. We then examine the case of Ireland, which joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) in 1979 attracted by the prospects of lower, German influenced, inflation and interest rates. We find in the early years of the ERM, both Irish inflation and interest rastes were inconsistent with credibility of the exchange rate regime; in he latter years, from 1987 on, rates were in the derived range around German rates.