The Effect of Errors in Variables on Tests for a Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Rates

Conventional tests for a risk premium in the price of forward exchange use the subsequently realized spot rate as a proxy for prior expectations. Use of this proxy creates a serious errors-in-variables problem which makes it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of zero risk premium. Use of a better proxy for expectations indicates the presence of a risk premium in the forward exchange rate of all countries analyzed.     

VALUE FOR MONEY AUDITING IN NEW ZEALAND: COMPETING FOR CONTROL IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

This paper provides an overview of the changing role of performance or Value for Money (VFM) auditing in the New Zealand public sector. In many countries there has been a strong interest in public sector reform and the place of accounting technologies such as VFM. A theoretical framework, derived from public policy literature, is used to explain the changing role and relevance of VFM auditing in New Zealand. Within the policy process problems, solutions and opportunities are relatively separate streams. Expert groups or epistemic communities compete to define the problem and to advocate their particular solutions. The Office of the Auditor-General is presented as an epistemic community within the New Zealand policy process and the technology of VFM as a solution to the problems of the day. However, the Treasury (NZ) also developed a policy solution involving radical restructure of the public sector, challenging the existing role of VFM. In response, the Audit Office re-defined the role of VFM auditing as a service to the parliamentary select committees. The changing role of VFM illustrates the flexible and the contestable nature of accounting technologies and casts some doubt on the argument that the growth of accounting in the public sector is inevitable.     

Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Asset Returns

This paper investigates the importance of idiosyncratic consumption risk for the cross‐sectional variation in asset returns. We find that besides the rate of aggregate consumption growth, the cross‐sectional variance of consumption growth is also a priced factor. This suggests that consumers are not fully insured against idiosyncratic consumption risk, and that asset returns reflect their attempts to reduce their exposure to this risk. The resulting two‐factor consumption‐based asset pricing model significantly outperforms the CAPM, and its performance compares favorably with that of the Fama–French three‐factor model.     

Living Wage Policies at the San Francisco Airport: Impacts on Workers and Businesses

This paper evaluates the costs, benefits and related impacts of living wage policies implemented at the San Francisco Airport (SFO). Unlike other living wage ordinances, the policies at SFO cover a large proportion of the low-wage labor force in a distinct labor market. The authors find that about 73 percent of the ground-based non-managerial workers at SFO received substantial wage increases as a direct or indirect result of the policies; the proportion of these workers earning under $10 per hour fell from 55 percent to 5 percent, significantly reducing earnings inequality. Other benefits to workers included enhanced health benefits and an arrest of declines in quality of life indices. The costs of the policies to employers amounted to an average of 0.7 percent of fare revenue, or $1.42 per airline passenger. We observe a series of dynamic adjustments that reduced those costs, including dramatically reduced turnover, improved worker morale and greater work effort. We find some limited evidence of worker-worker substitution, but no evidence of employment decline.     

Optimal Income Taxation with Endogenous Human Capital

This paper augments the theory of optimal linear income taxation by taking into account human capital accumulation as a dimension of labor supply. The distribution of earning potentials is endogenous because agents differ in the ability to learn. Taxation affects utilization rates of human capital through labor supply responses. The costs of education that are not deductible from the income tax distort the learning decision as well. We show theoretically that the trade‐off between efficiency and equity is worsened. Quantitative analysis shows that the distortionary costs of taxation increase substantially when human capital formation is endogenous.     

Book Reviews

Barbara Harriss-White, India Working: Essays on Society and Economy.
Phillipp Schofield, Peasant and Community in Medieval England, 1200–1500.
Nicola Verdon, Rural Women Workers in 19th Century England: Gender, Work and Wages.
Jonathan R. Pincus and Jeffrey Winters (eds), Reinventing the World Bank.
Julie A. Charlip, Cultivating Coffee: The Farmers of Carazo, Nicaragua, 1880–1930.
Monica M. van Beusekom, Negotiating Development: African Farmers and Colonial Experts at the Office du Niger, 1920–1960.
Abdul Rahman Embong, State-led Modernization and the New Middle Class in Malaysia.
David M. Anderson, Eroding the Commons: The Politics of Ecology in Baringo, Kenya 1890s–1963.
Jan Breman and Gunawan Wiradi, Good Times and Bad Times in Rural Java: Case Study of Socio-Economic Dynamics in Two Villages Towards the End of the Twentieth Century.
Mario Rutten, Rural Capitalists in Asia: A Comparative Analysis on India, Indonesia and Malaysia.     

Leverage and the Cross‐Section of Equity Returns

Building on theoretical asset pricing literature, we examine the role of market risk and the size, book‐to‐market (BTM), and volatility anomalies in the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns. Compared with levered (stock) returns, unlevered market beta plays a more important role in explaining the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns, even after controlling for size and BTM. The size effect is weakened, while the value premium and the volatility puzzle virtually disappear for unlevered returns. We show that leverage induces heteroskedasticity in returns. Unlevering returns removes this pattern, which is otherwise difficult to address by controlling for leverage in regressions.