Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area

This paper tests the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the aggregate Euro Area, in an unobserved components model of stochastic NAIRU and trend output featuring the Phillips equation and the Okun law as main identifying equations, with quarterly data for 1970:I-2002:III. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The results prove to be robust to alternative lag length structures of the model, and to alternative non-linear functional forms. The trend-cycle decompositions estimated with the model capture the main features of the Euro Area’s recent macroeconomic record.First version received: 1 September 2003 / Final version received: June 2004CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.We thank comments on earlier versions by Fabio Canova, Miguel St Aubyn, Alvaro Almeida, Pete Richardson, Kevin Ross, and two anonymous referees. We acknowledge James D. Hamilton’s help with the confidence bands. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Inequality and Income Distribution in Global Value Chains

Global value chains (GVCs), led by transnational corporations (TNCs), have reshaped the world division of labor over the past two decades. GVCs are pervasive in low technology manufacturing, such as textile and apparel, as well as in more advanced industries like automobiles, electronics, and machines. This hierarchical division of labor generates wild competition at the lower value-added stages of production, where low wages and low profit margins prevail for workers and contract manufacturers in developing countries. At the top of the hierarchy another kind of competition prevails, centered on the ability to monitor and control intellectual property rights related to innovation, finance, and marketing. We argue that GVCs have had crucial effects on income inequality and the appropriation of rents in modern capitalism.     

Evidence of the impacts of public e-procurement: The Portuguese experience

This paper analyses public e-procurement implementation and emphasizes its main difficulties and impacts in relation to the type of public organizations. The primary impacts and changes in the Portuguese public sector are analyzed within the new legal framework, which adopts mandatory e-procurement for any open, restricted or negotiated procedure. In this sense, two surveys carried out in consecutive years were conducted to assess the implementation difficulties and impact of e-procurement in the Portuguese public sector.The major value of this research is that it presents and discusses, for the first time, evidences about difficulties and impacts on the mandatory adoption of public e-procurement, based on the case of Portugal. The results show that the entities’ administrative level influences the e-procurement implementation, which is influenced by the innovation adoption process.     

Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results in, on average, a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results in, on average, an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.     

Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account

World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging markets, in an otherwise standard model with endogenous default, to match these facts.     

AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

Total factor productivity (TFP), factor accumulation, and growth are analysed for a panel of 40 countries in 2001–11. TFP growth and technical inefficiency are estimated using a stochastic frontier model. Environmental variables are found to have an important role in explaining differences in inefficiency across countries. Over 2001–11, the general improvement in technical efficiency of countries is almost outweighed by technological regress. Results indicate that differences in factor accumulation between OECD and emerging economies are more important than differences in TFP change to explain differences in economic growth. Results also indicate negative and significant random shocks for the OECD countries.     

Firms and wage inequality in Central and Eastern Europe

We use large linked employer-employee data to analyze wage inequality patterns in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries between 2002 and 2014. We show that, unlike in many other advanced economies, wage inequality levels have decreased in almost all CEE countries. These reductions in wage inequality resulted from disproportionately large increases in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, and from decreases in between-firm wage inequality. We further find that the declines in wage inequality were driven by large wage structure effects that compensated for changes in the composition of workers.     

SHIFTING BOUNDARIES IN ECONOMICS: THE INSTITUTIONAL COGNITIVE STRAND AND THE FUTURE OF INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS

This paper aims at contributing to the debate on the future of institutional economics and of the field as a whole by starting from the literature that discusses the relationship between Old‐Original Institutional Economics and New Institutional Economics. It suggests that the process of reunifying OIE and NIE (and evolutionary economics) prompted by part of the literature could be improved by the contribution of the Cognitive Institutional Economics. The paper follows a two‐stage pathway: first, it frames the debate on the relationships between NIE and the OIE and it concentrates on a subset of the literature that shows that NIE's recent developments complicate the distinction between NIE and OIE, and it explores the possibility that NIE and OIE may merge so that an amalgam of NIE, OIE and Evolutionary Economics becomes the next economic paradigm. Secondly, the paper argues that a step forward in the direction outlined by the literature has been made by CIE, which is a research stream that developed from cross‐fertilization among NIE, OIE and the Hayekian contributions to the analysis of institutions. In the concluding remarks, the possible emergence of a single institutional paradigm is discussed in the light of the literature about change in economics.