Nontraded food commodity spatial price transmission: evidence from the Niger millet market

Using an Augmented Factor Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Model, this study analyzes spatial millet prices transmission in Niger. Our results did not find condition for millet markets integration existence. However, the Granger causality tests and impulse response functions from the estimated short‐term dynamic as FAVAR model revealed the existence of leading markets whose millet prices affect a maximum number of other regional millet prices, while some regions seem to be isolated from trade or information flows. Furthermore, the significance of a shock depends also on the characteristics of the region where it originates in terms of millet demand or supply, indicating that the region to target and where the price shock originated matter for the policies’ success.     

Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?

Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact ofclimate change on African agriculture has been a challenge.Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates howfarm net revenues are affected by climate change compared withcurrent mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for drylandcrops (temperature elasticity of –1.9) and livestock (–5.4),whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5),which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and arebuffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first,warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigatedcrops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming,however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely.The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation,because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation.Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, wherewater is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation toclimate change in Africa.