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1.
Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date. 相似文献
2.
Effects of Information Technology Capabilities on Strategic Alliances: Implications for the Resource‐Based View 下载免费PDF全文
Constantinos S. Lioukas Jeffrey J. Reuer Maurizio Zollo 《Journal of Management Studies》2016,53(2):161-183
This paper adopts a contingency approach to the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm and seeks to establish boundary conditions for the value of certain information technology (IT) capabilities. We first identify inter‐organizational alliances as a specific strategy context in which IT capabilities are particularly valuable. We then consider more detailed boundary conditions that can shape the value of these capabilities within the alliance context. Our study shows that firms with better IT capabilities can derive greater value from an alliance, yet this effect also varies across different types of alliances depending on an individual alliance's characteristics. Specifically, IT capabilities are more valuable for alliances with a non‐equity governance structure, as well as those involving a high degree of interdependence between partners. We highlight the implications of our findings for opportunities to advance the RBV. 相似文献
3.
ABSTRACT This paper provides an empirical investigation of the impact of market orientation on firms' economic performance during the period 1998–2012 using a panel of Italian manufacturing firms. We introduce a dynamic concept of market orientation, in that we define a market-oriented firm as one that persistently undertakes product and marketing innovation, while at the same time introducing organizational changes and training efforts to manage and improve its knowledge assets over the long term. This notion of market orientation is therefore crucially related to the so-called dynamic capability approach. The related empirical model shows that being a market-oriented firm significantly affects profitability, in a framework in which this latter is simultaneously estimated with productivity, thus allowing for more precise estimates of the profit premium which is earned accordingly. 相似文献
4.
Many nations have undergone significant trade liberalization even as they have increased their use of contingent protection measures. This raises the question of whether some of the trade liberalization efforts, at times accomplished through painful reforms, have been undone through a substitution from tariffs to non‐tariff barriers. Among the new forms of protection, antidumping is the most relevant. This paper examines whether the use of antidumping is systematically influenced by the reduction of applied sectoral tariffs in a sample of 29 developing and six developed countries from 1991 through 2002. Evidence is found of a substitution effect only for a small set of heavy users of antidumping among developing countries. There is no similar statistically significant result for other developing countries or developed countries. Robust evidence is also found of retaliation and deflection effects as determinant of antidumping filings across all subsamples. 相似文献
5.
The aim of this article is to analyse empirically whether the level of institutional quality influences how financial development affects poverty for a sample of developing countries covering the period from 1984 to 2012. Using an interaction term constructed as a product between financial development and institutional quality we find that the pro-poor impact of financial development decreases as the quality of institutions rises. Such a differential effect can be ascribed to the capacity of banks to provide functions that mimic those performed by an institutional framework that works well. The results of this article can be used for policy management. 相似文献
6.
7.
Understanding the exploration–exploitation dilemma: An fMRI study of attention control and decision‐making performance 下载免费PDF全文
This paper studies the cognitive processes that enable decision makers to switch between exploitation and exploration. We use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a sample of expert decision makers to make two main contributions. First, we identify and contrast the specific brain regions and cognitive processes associated with exploitation and exploration decisions. Exploitation activates regions associated with reward seeking, which track and evaluate the value of current choices, while exploration relies on regions associated with attentional control, tracking the value of alternative choices. Second, we propose and test the idea that stronger activation of the brain circuits related to attentional control allows individuals to achieve better decision‐making performance as a result. We discuss the implications of these results for strategic management research and practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 相似文献
8.
Maurizio Ciaschini 《Economic Modelling》1989,6(4)
In this paper an attempt is made to put together, within the same model, the supply and the demand side of the economic process. This is done by integrating the progress attained in two fields which have traditionally been considered separate: the input-output approach and the macroeconometric final demand approach. The composition of each traditional macroeconomic variable, determined within the model, is analysed into the functional headings which are peculiar for each variable (family budgets headings for personal consumption expenditures, investing sectors for investments, I-O sectors for output and so on). We can then identify for each variable a scale component - absolute level of the aggregated variable - and a structure component - its inner composition - which are mutually consistent. Two types of applications of the same model are then compared: simulation, where the parametric set is used to obtain the dynamic path of a specific scenario; and integrated impact multiplier analysis where scale and structure effects are evaluated with reference to all the potential behaviour of the system. 相似文献
9.
We propose here a theory of cylindrical stochastic integration, recently developed by Mikulevicius and Rozovskii, as mathematical background to the theory of bond markets. In this theory, since there is a continuum of securities, it seems natural to define a portfolio as a measure on maturities. However, it turns out that this set of strategies is not complete, and the theory of cylindrical integration allows one to overcome this difficulty. Our approach generalizes the measure-valued strategies: this explains some known results, such as approximate completeness, but at the same time it also shows that either the optimal strategy is based on a finite number of bonds or it is not necessarily a measure-valued process.Received: November 2002, Mathematics Subject Classification:
60H05, 60G60, 90A09JEL Classification:
G10, E43The first author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the CNR Strategic Project Modellizzazione matematica di fenomeni economici. We thank professors A. Bagchi, R. Douady and J. Zabczyk for helpful discussions. A special thanks goes to professors T. Björk, Y. Kabanov and W. Schachermayer for comments and suggestions which contributed to improve the final version of this paper. 相似文献
10.
Maurizio La Rocca Tiziana La Rocca Dionigi Gerace Ciorstan Smark 《Accounting & Finance》2009,49(4):799-826
Previous empirical financial studies have paid little attention to the role of diversification strategy on financial choices. This study analyses the financing strategies of multibusiness firms, suggesting the relevance of sorting the diversification phenomena into its related and unrelated components. The implications of our findings are important because they explain earlier contradictory results on capital‐structure determinants and offer an explanation of how the degree of product specialization/diversification and the direction of diversification (related or unrelated) translate into different corporate financial behaviours. 相似文献