Food Scares and Trust: A European Study

The complex interactions between the determinants of food purchase under risk are explored using the SPARTA model, based on the theory of planned behaviour, and estimated through a combination of multivariate statistical techniques. The application investigates chicken consumption choices in two scenarios: (a) a ‘standard’ purchasing situation; and (b) following a hypothetical Salmonella scare. The data are from a nationally representative survey of 2,725 respondents from five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Results show that the effects and interactions of behavioural determinants vary significantly within Europe. Only in the case of a food scare do risk perceptions and trust come into play. The policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities and research institutions, while food chain actors could mitigate the consequences of a food scare through public trust. No relationship is found between socio‐demographic variables and consumer trust in food safety information.     

Consumer Welfare and the Loss Induced by Withholding Information: The Case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.     

Domestically produced food: Consumer perceptions of origin, safety and the issue of trust

It is becoming increasingly difficult for the public to attempt to assess risks using traditional methods such as smell, taste or other physical attributes of food. The existence of extrinsic cues such as the country of origin (COO) of food can help to make food purchase decisions easier for consumers. However, the use of extrinsic cues depends heavily on the extent to which consumers trust such signals to be indicative of quality or safety, which in turn depends on the credibility behind that cue. This paper aims to examine consumers association of domestically produced food with increased food safety standards and the association of COO and food safety information with socio-demographics and other aspects of consumer psychology such as attitudes, risk perception and trust. Using an ordered probit model, domestic production is examined as an extrinsic cue for food safety by looking at the relationship with trust in food safety information provided by national food standards agencies (NFSAs) and other socio-demographic characteristics, based on nationally representative data from 2725 face-to-face interviews across five European countries. Results suggest that domestic production of food is an extrinsic cue for food safety and as consumers place increasing importance on food safety they are more interested in food produced in their own country. This, coupled with consumer trust in a strong, and independent national food standards agency, suggests the potential exists for the increased consumption of domestically produced foods.     

A cointegrated VECM demand system for meat in Italy

This article applies cointegration techniques to estimate a monthly demand system for meat in Italy. In contrast to existing studies where Engle and Granger's two step procedure and Triangular Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) representations are usually exploited, it applies a cointegrated Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where also prices and expenditure enter endogenously the system and the cointegration rank is not assumed to be known a priori but subject to inference. It highlights some of the advantages of using the VECM compared to the TVECM, including the possibility of testing the cointegration rank of the system and the (weak and strong) exogeneity of prices and expenditure within a well-specified statistical model. This may lead to remarkable improvements in the efficiency of parameters system estimates.     

Impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy on Agribusiness in the United Kingdom: Results of an Event Study of Equity Prices

This article assesses the impact on agribusinesses of the United Kingdom Government's announcement of a possible link between Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and human health. Three approaches are employed to derive benchmark models against which abnormal returns are estimated, a simple market model, Scholes–Williams approach, and an autoregressive distributed lag model. Abnormal returns are estimated for single firms and for subsectors over an eight-day event window. The autoregressive distributed lag model performs best and indicates significant negative abnormal returns in the beef, pet food, animal feed, and dairy sectors and positive abnormal returns in the other meats sector.     

The shadow economy beyond European public governance

The purpose of this paper is to try to analyze the Shadow Economy (SE) and its determinants by means of the Structural Equation Model (SEM)-Partial Least Squares (PLS). The overall topic of the SEM-PLS approach is controversially debated in the literature. In the past decades, the focus on the SE has increased and the range in the estimated size of this phenomenon is very divergent. By examining the effects of a set of indicators, economic theory often emphasizes the need for lower taxes and less regulation, but many other factors, such as administrative quality, are frequently neglected. Policy implications are discussed. Estimates for the SE as a percentage of GDP can be calculated and European countries are clustered according to the obtained results.     

Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle

This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004, we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models, the first with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared in terms of explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. The results show similar performances. The policy implication is that the XCV model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy.