International trade in a differentiated good: Trade elasticities in the world rice market

In many previous rice trade models, the commodity has been regarded as a homogeneous product. However, homogeneity is not an appropriate assumption, given the various types of rice that are traded and consumed. Parameters estimated from these models, therefore, do not reflect the real world market for rice and, hence, may mislead decision makers who use the results for policy evaluation purposes. This study uses an Armington approach to model the world rice trade as a differential good market and to derive trade elasticity parameters.     

Why projections on China’s future food supply and demand differ

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self-sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.