Agricultural Export-Diversification and Economic Growth in Caribbean Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models

This article uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the causal relationship between agricultural export diversification and economic growth in eight selected Caribbean countries using annual data from 1961 to 2000. The empirical results show that in the short run, agricultural export diversification Granger causes economic growth in Barbados and Belize. Noncausality exists for the other countries. In the long run, agricultural export diversification also Granger causes economic growth in the Dominican Republic. On the contrary, agricultural export diversification is the outcome of the economic growth process in Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Jamaica, in the long run. Noncausality exists in Trinidad and Tobago. There is no evidence of bi-directional causality in any of the countries in either the short or long run.     

Polygynous family system,neighbourhood contexts and under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

Based on the competing theories regarding the relationship between family structure and child health outcomes, this article examined the effects of polygynous family system (PFS) on under-five mortality (U5M) across different socio-economic and neighbourhood contexts in selected sub-Saharan African countries. Cox proportional regression analysis was performed on pooled data of children (n?=?54 842) born in the five years before the Demographic and Health Surveys of selected countries. Results indicated differential effects of PFS on U5M across varying contexts, because risks of U5M were significantly higher for children of polygynous mothers in poor communities (hazard ratio: 2.98, 95% confidence interval: 2.23 to 3.95, p?<?0.001) and children of monogamists in poor communities (hazard ratio: 2.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.69 to 2.98, p?<?0.001) compared with the children of monogamists in rich communities. Given the worsening effects of polygyny on childhood survival across different contexts, this study stressed the need for marriage reforms and enforcement of a monogamous family system if significant U5M reduction would be achieved in sub-Saharan African countries during the post-2015 development era.     

Foreign travel and tourism prices and demand

Sunday, Alexander A., “Foreign Travel and Tourism Prices and Demand,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. V, No. 2, April/June 1978, pp. 268–273. Using regression analysis and panel data this study estimates the parameter effect of prices on American demand for foreign travel and tourism. Findings suggest that higher air fares generate fewer tourists but greater expenditure per tourist visit.     

Basel III liquidity rules: The implications for bank lending growth in Africa

This paper examines the possible loan growth effect of the Basel III NSFR and LCR requirements in Africa and seeks to determine whether the different regions of the continent are affected differently. The paper also offers what is possibly the first investigation of how the interaction between the performance of loan portfolios and the new Basel III liquidity requirements might shape bank loan growth rates. Using a dataset of 361 commercial banks across 38 African countries over the 2005–2015 period, our static and dynamic panel analyses show that both the NSFR and the LCR exert significant positive effects on bank loan growth rates. The results also reveal that the NSFR reduces the impact of the negative effect of poor performance of loan portfolios on bank loan growth rates. Compliance with the Basel III liquidity rules in Africa is therefore likely to have beneficial impacts on policies intended to increase bank lending in the continent.     

Banks and Consultants in Nigeria's Job Creation Program

Employment creation has become a central objective of policy in many countries. There is also growing unanimity that it can be better attained via a partnership of the private and public sectors. In order to provide the necessary background, the paper highlights extant evidence on the role of entrepreneurship in employment creation and some of the factors which may constrain it. The paper also evaluates the performance of private banks and management consultants in providing credit and management assistance in the job creation program for unemployed graduates in Nigeria. The evaluation is on the basis of the participants' ratings on some selected performance criteria. On the average, with only one exception, banks obtained better ratings than consultants on six performance criteria that are common to them but failed to meet the participants' expectations on four credit-related criteria.     

Vulnerability of motorcycle riders and co-riders to injuries in multi-occupant crashes

In developing countries, most motorcycles are ridden with more than one occupant. The objective of this study was to establish the relative vulnerability of riders and co-riders to injury and determine the injury risk factors in multi-occupant motorcycle crashes. Between January and December 2010, we collected crash and injury data from victims of multi-occupant motorcycle. It is a hospital-based study. The probability of sustaining injuries was similar for co-riders and riders, but co-riders were more likely to sustain severe injuries. Occupants of >2-occupant motorcycles were also more likely to be involved in risky behaviours like not wearing helmet and speeding than those on 2-occupant motorcycles. Occupants of motorcycles on which there were more than two occupants were at an increased risk of sustaining injuries compared with occupants of motorcycles with only two occupants (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.1–4.3). Motorcycle co-riders were more vulnerable to severe injuries than riders. The significance of the study finding to prevention was discussed.