Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

A BOX–COX CONSUMER DEMAND SYSTEM NESTING THE ALMOST IDEAL MODEL*

This article proposes a consumer demand system that has a generalized functional form characterized by the Box–Cox transformation. The new model offers a wider range of responses to both price and expenditure changes than the existing price independent generalized linear models, including the almost ideal demand system. Even with these features, its functional form is relatively simple and easy to interpret and implement. An empirical illustration is given for Japanese demand for nondurable goods and services. The results show that the new model is preferable to the nested models in terms of relative explanatory power and producing reasonable elasticities.     

Differential Demand Systems: A Further Look at Barten's Synthesis

Barten's synthetic model is attractive to applied researchers since it is useful for testing the adequacy of the competing functional forms of differential demand systems including the popular Rotterdam and almost ideal demand systems. This article shows that the synthetic model is not a mere artificial composite of the known differential demand systems as it has been considered, but rather viewed as a model in its own right. It is demonstrated that, at the individual consumer level, Barten's model has the same marginal budget shares as generated by specific forms of Engel curves formulated by the Box-Cox transformation.     

Incorporating Generalized Marginal Budget Shares in a Mixed Demand System

This article extends a Rotterdam type of mixed demand system by replacing its constant marginal budget shares with the ones derived from originally defined and specified mixed Engel curves that take a generalized functional form using the Box-Cox transformation. An empirical illustration is given for Japanese demand for fresh and processed fruits and vegetables. The results show that the Rotterdam parameterization of marginal budget shares, which corresponds to those in linear mixed Engel curves, is preferred by the data, and that improper assumptions of the form of mixed Engel curves underlying a mixed demand system can bias its elasticities.     

A trigonometric flexible consumer demand system

Abstract.  This paper proposes the first ever empirical specification of a trigonometric demand system. The new model is potentially useful because of some attractive features. It is flexible, amenable to exact aggregation over consumers, possessed of trigonometric Engel curves, which can oscillate, and able to have an unusually large regular region. With comparisons between the new model and two other popular models, an illustration is given for Japanese demand for non‐durables and services. The new model shows relatively gentle Engel curves with an inflection point on each of them, which seem reasonable, given that aggregate expenditure is used in parameter estimation. JEL classification: C51, D12     

Clinical and economic impact of rivaroxaban on the burden of atrial fibrillation: The case study of Japan

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects an estimated 1.5 million individuals in Japan, increasing their stroke risk and imposing considerable costs on the Japanese healthcare system. To reduce stroke incidence, guidelines recommend using anticoagulants in moderate-to-high risk non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients; however, many patients receive no treatment, aspirin only, or remain poorly-controlled on vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) due to high VKA discontinuation rates and non-adherence to guidelines. A prevalence-based Markov model was developed to estimate the clinical and budgetary impact of treating these patients with Xarelto^TM (rivaroxaban, Bayer AG) in Japan.

Methods: Population, baseline risk of events, and associated management costs were estimated using data from Japanese publications where available. Treatment efficacy and safety were derived from published data and the J-ROCKET AF trial. Drug and physician visit costs were based on data from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, the J-ROCKET AF trial, and Japanese clinical guidelines.

Results: This model demonstrates that increased use of rivaroxaban in inadequately-managed NVAF patients could avoid 456 081 non-fatal ischemic strokes (IS) and 76 975 cardiovascular deaths over 10 years in Japan. This clinical benefit offsets the increased incidence of myocardial infarctions and anticoagulant-related bleeding. Decreased event costs could lead to a ¥188.4 billion decrease in net spending over the analysis time horizon.

Conclusions: Introducing rivaroxaban may decrease the burden of NVAF in Japanese society. From a clinical perspective, the reduction in IS and embolic events outweighs the increased risk of anticoagulant-related bleeding; from an economic perspective, reduced event costs offset drug and physician visit costs, resulting in cost savings.     

Linear approximations to the quadratic almost ideal demand system

This paper investigates linear approximations to the recently popular quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) by proposing a new composite variable and conducting a simulation study. The linear approximations are especially useful when one uses nonstationary time series, to which nonlinear systems are difficult to apply properly. The new composite variable performs well in combination with the price indices appropriate for linearizing the almost ideal demand system. The QUAIDS can be linearly approximated on a practical basis if the appropriate combinations of composite variables and elasticity formulas are employed and the base point is set to the point of evaluation.

Demand for temperature and rainfall index insurance in India

Weather index insurance has been attracting considerable attention from academics and policymakers. This study investigates the demand for two types of index insurance sold in India: temperature index insurance for dry season and rainfall index insurance for subsequent monsoon season. Using data from randomized subsidy experiments, we separate purchase and quantity decisions and investigate how demand for rainfall insurance is correlated with demand for temperature insurance sold in the previous season. We find that the price (premium) does not influence purchase decisions per se but does significantly influence quantity decisions. The quantity demanded is less price‐sensitive for subsequent rainfall insurance than it is for temperature insurance. We also find that purchasers of temperature insurance tend to buy rainfall insurance more often than nonpurchasers do. However, a one‐time subsidy does not influence on subsequent demand, suggesting no price‐anchoring effect.     

Research & Development management system and profitability method used at Sumitomo Electric

In order to increase R&D efficiency, it is important to establish an R&D management system best suited for the particular enterprise. This paper presents the outline of the R&D management at Sumitorno Electric Industries, the organization of the R&D Group, the project evaluation method used, and the Sumitorno model of the profitability method as applied to project assessment.     

Forms of Scale Curves and Differential Inverse Demand Systems

This article provides a new interpretation of the scale effects in differential inverse demand systems. A scale curve is defined as a curve that shows how the expenditure share of a good or service changes as the consumption level changes. It is shown that Brown, Lee, and Seale's synthetic model has the same scale effects as do the Box–Cox scale curves. In this light, their model is not a mere composite but a model in its own right. An empirical illustration given for Japanese fresh food demand suggests that the underlying scale curves differ from both linear and loglinear forms.