Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

We provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis.     

LDC DEBT: THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

For a combination of reasons that differ among countries, many developing countries' foreign debt service obligations have become difficult to meet. The size of the problem in 1982 raised concern over the stability of the banking system. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided the forum through which the international community's strategy for meeting this concern has evolved. The IMF also played, and continues to play, an active role in helping to finance the structural and balance-of-payments adjustments needed in countries with debt service problems. The IMF's involvement is an integral part of the broader strategy, which builds on the cooperation of debtors and creditors, on a case-by-case basis. The objective is to share the burden in a balanced way. Obtaining adequate adjustment in deficit countries is central to the strategy, but the Baker Plan increased the emphasis on restoring longer-term growth through more far-reaching structural adjustments supported by longer-term financing. The IMF has modified and enhanced some of its lending facilities in light of this emphasis. However, though the short-term nature of its lending was critical in averting a possible banking crisis during 1982 and 1983, it diminishes somewhat the IMF's role in financing the more protracted adjustments now required.     

The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia*

The aim of this paper is to test the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates in the Australian market for short-term financial assets. The paper finds that the joint hypothesis of the expectations theory and zero (or a constant risk premium) cannot be rejected in the period since the introduction of the tender system for sale of government securities in 1979. The floating of the Australian dollar in 1983 did not alter the findings.     

Time Aggregation and the Relationship between Inflation and Money Growth

Using panel data for 99 countries, we confirm that the measured elasticity of prices with respect to money is higher, and closer to unity, the higher is money growth and the longer the time horizon over which the data are averaged. We propose two explanations. In one, the true model of inflation involves a lagged response to money growth. In the other, there is negative correlation between shocks to inflation and money growth. Our empirical results can be explained if high–money‐growth countries have (i) shorter lags or (ii) less negative correlation, when compared to countries with low money growth.     

The Pivotal Role Of Accounting Concepts In The Development Of Public Sector Accounting Standards

Perhaps the most important decision made by the Public Sector Accounting Standards Board was taken soon after it was formed in 1983. That decision was to adopt a conceptual approach to the development of public-sector accounting standards. This paper explores the implications for the reform of public-sector financial reporting practices in Australia.     

Lessee Reactions to Regulation of Accounting for Leases

This study examines lessee firms’ responses to Australian Accounting Standard 17, Accounting for Leases (AAS 17, 1987) and Approved Accounting Standard ASRB 1008, Accounting for Leases (ASRB 1008, 1987). Both Standards required that lessees capitalize finance leases, thus bringing the finance leases of many firms‘on balance sheet’ and increasing reported leverage. If the capitalization requirement altered firms’ equilibrium contracting cost distributions sufficiently, firms would take actions to mitigate its effect, possibly by altering their capital structures. The study examines whether the capital structures of these firms did change in response to the requirement, and if so, how. The results indicate that firms responded to the Standards by reducing their reliance upon finance leasing and increasing their reliance upon non-lease debt and shareholders’ funds. Firms do not appear to have used definitional interpretations to classify leases as operating rather than finance leases. As expected, the firms previously disclosing finance leases in footnotes experienced increases in non-lease debt reliance while the control sample (firms that previously capitalized the lease obligations) experienced decreases. Differences between control firms’ and footnote disclosure firms’ reactions to the Standard are generally consistent with contracting theory predictions. Control firms reacted to the loss of the potential to off balance sheet finance. Footnote-disclosure firms reacted to the loss of an already utilized off balance sheet financing technique.     

Default Premiums in Commodity Markets: Theory and Evidence

We model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the “Hunt Brothers”episode. Changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period. Results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant, priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs. The evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets.     

Regulation, Risk and the Pricing of Australian Bank Shares, 1957–1976*

Recent contributions to the theory of regulation have suggested the possibility of discriminatory regulation affecting risk and profits of firms subject to public intervention. This paper examines risk and wealth effects associated with Australian banking regulation. Support is found for the Peltzman and Edwards and Heggestad hypothesis that regulation reduces risk and for Johnson's hypothesis that statutory reserve deposit requirement policy involves an implicit tax on bank shareholders.