Time diversification and security preferences: A stochastic dominance analysis

We use stochastic dominance to test whether investor should prefer riskier securities as the investment horizon lengthens. Return distributions for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills are generated for holding periods of one to 25 years by simulation. For each holding period, stochastic dominance tests are run to establish preferences between the alternative security classes. Contrary to previous mean-variance based studies, we find no evidence that high-risk securities (stocks) dominate low-risk securities (bonds, Treasury bills) as the investment horizon lengthens. However, we do find that corporate bonds systematically dominate government bonds.     

An integrated tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction

A carbon tax is often cited by economists as an effective instrument to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but there is little political interest in the United States. In light of this political unpopularity, we develop and examine a net-revenue constrained carbon tax and subsidy program. The optimal revenue constrained tax and subsidy schedule based on our utility maximization model taxes energy sources with high emissions to energy price ratio, and subsidizes sources with low emissions to energy price ratios. This approach may be more palatable than a traditional carbon tax because it can change the relative price of low and high emissions energy sources while providing a mechanism to limit net tax increases and energy price increases. We find that a constrained tax/subsidy program provides welfare gains relative to a no-tax scenario. Welfare gains are estimated to be 1% and 36% of the welfare gains from a Pigouvian tax for the motor fuels industry and electric power industry, respectively. In contrast, subsidies for low-emitting energy sources funded from general tax funds rather than from high-emission energy tax revenues lead to welfare decreases substantially below our proposed tax/subsidy policy approach.     

An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs

This paper develops an econometric model that can provide predictions of fire suppression costs (per acre and in total) for a given large fire before final fire acreage is known. The model jointly estimates cost per acre and acreage equations via Maximum Likelihood, accounting for sample truncation based on final fire size. Formulas and results are shown for predictions of costs and fire size for wildfires in general, and for large fires in particular. Marginal effects of explanatory variables on cost and acreage are discussed. The distribution of these model predictions illustrates the importance of accounting for sample truncation when generating predicted outcomes based on ex ante information.     

A random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model for dynamic futures hedging

The random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model (RCARRS) for estimating optimal hedge ratios, which generalizes the random coefficient autoregressive (RCAR) and Markov regime switching (MRS) models, is introduced. RCARRS, RCAR, MRS, BEKK‐GARCH, CC‐GARCH, and OLS are compared with the use of aluminum and lead futures data. RCARRS outperforms all models out‐of‐sample for lead and is second only to BEKK‐GARCH for aluminum in terms of variancereduction point estimates. White's data‐snooping reality check null hypothesis of no superiority is rejected for BEKK‐GARCH and RCARRS for aluminum, but not for lead. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:103–129, 2006     

Estimating the Structure of Market Reaction to News: Information Events and Lumber Futures Prices

We develop a new event-study technique, the distributional event response model (DERM), appropriate to relatively slowly evolving information events. We apply the model to twelve years of daily lumber futures prices and analyze the effects of three different types of information releases: ( a ) monthly housing starts estimates, ( b ) aperiodic administrative and judicial announcements about U.S.–Canada trade disputes, and ( c ) novel and unprecedented court decisions related to the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The information releases are different in ways that predict their relative speeds of impoundment in prices. We find that housing start events are absorbed more quickly than trade events, which are absorbed more quickly than ESA events.     

Optimal hedging with a regime‐switching time‐varying correlation GARCH model

The authors develop a Markov regime‐switching time‐varying correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS‐TVC GARCH) model for estimating optimal hedge ratios. The RS‐TVC nests within it both the time‐varying correlation GARCH (TVC) and the constant correlation GARCH (CC). Point estimates based on the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng index futures data show that the RS‐TVC outperforms the CC and the TVC both in‐ and out‐of‐sample in terms of variance reduction. Based on H. White's (2000) reality check, the null hypothesis of no improvement of the RS‐TVC over the TVC is rejected for the Nikkei 225 index contract but is not rejected for the Hang Seng index contract. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:495–516, 2007     

Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management

Prescribed fire as a wildfire risk mitigation tool is receiving increasing attention in the United States after a century of emphasis on suppression. A dynamic economic model of prescribed fire use, precaution, and timing is developed and applied to three important policy issues: vegetation management on the wildland-urban interface; the effect of liability on vegetation management decisions; and the problem of heavy initial fuel loads after years of suppression and fuel accumulation. Numerical simulation results are presented as illustrations of the analytical model.     

The Behavior of Option Implied Standard Deviations Around Merger and Acquisition Announcements

This paper examines the behavior of option implied standard deviations around merger and acquisition announcements. The implied standard deviations of target firms increase significantly three days prior to the announcement. The bidding firm implied standard deviations are not affected. The analysis is extended to the equity market to determine which market reacts first to the merger or acquisition announcement. Target firm equity abnormal returns and residual variances increase significantly one and two days, respectively, prior to the announcement.     

Voluntary adoption of clawback provisions,corporate governance,and interlock effects

We examine the relationship between a company’s governance structure and the early adoption of management compensation clawbacks. We construct an index of whether governance tends toward relative management entrenchment versus monitoring and find that ostensible management entrenchment makes a clawback provision less likely. Furthermore, we examine whether social networks by the compensation committee with other adopters (interlocks) affects the likelihood of adoption, potentially by providing information from other decision-makers evaluating adoption. We find that interlocks by directors on the compensation committee with other companies with clawbacks increase the probability of a clawback. In addition, not all clawbacks are the same. We find that companies with clawbacks that are patterned after SOX are most common and are associated with monitoring-oriented governance and interlocks. Dodd Frank did not yet exist, but we find that clawback policies that would be compliant with Dodd Frank or are otherwise innovative are not associated with our measure of governance.