Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines the effect of unexpected exchange rate movements on U.S. shareholder wealth. Empirical results based on a sample of 634 U.S. multinational firms (1) confirm previously reported evidence that the disaggregation of the worldwide trade-weighted U.S. dollar exchange rate index into seven region-specific trade-weighted indices increases the precision and significance of exposure estimates; (2) show that models assuming that changes in spot exchange rates are unanticipated are frequently misspecified and, thus, unable to correctly detect the impact of currency movements on firm value; (3) reveal that forward and survey expectations enable us to distinguish between the effect of ‘realized’ and ‘unexpected’ currency movements; and (4) reveal that investors making pricing and hedging decisions prefer to use the information contained in short-term forward and survey expectation rates to the information included in long-term forecasts.     

Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time‐Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks*

This paper presents a new empirical approach to address the problem of trading time differences between markets in studies of financial contagion. In contrast to end‐of‐business‐day data common to most contagion studies, we employ price observations, which are exactly aligned in time to correct for time‐zone and end‐of‐business‐day differences between markets. Additionally, we allow for time lags between price observations in order to test the assumption that the shock is not immediately transmitted from one market to the other. Our analysis of the financial turmoil surrounding the Asian crisis reveals that such corrections have an important bearing on the evidence for contagion, independent of the methodology employed. Using a correlation‐based test, we find more contagion the faster we assume the shock to be transmitted.     

Do foreign exchange fund managers behave like heterogeneous agents?

This paper estimates an Heterogeneous Agent Model (HAM) on currency trader indices to explain the large shifts in profitability in currency styles surrounding the global financial crisis. In the model, fund managers allocate capital conditional on recent performance to a value strategy, a momentum strategy, and a carry strategy. Subsequent estimation results reveal that (1) a large part of the behavior of currency managers can indeed be described by these three simple strategies, and (2) currency managers shift capital from recent winning styles to recent losing styles, and hence apply a negative feedback strategy. We finally show that a negative feedback strategy is indeed optimal, but currency managers could improve performance by applying it less aggressively if they were able to.     

美国消费者眼中的企业社会责任

美国消费者最关注员工问题 消费者眼中认为的最重要的企业社会责任领域或许有别于那些社会责任投资者们所关注的领域。尽管社会责任投资者们在评估方法上远未达成一致,但运用更加广泛的评估方式已经逐渐成为一种趋势。美国著名的企业社会责任研究及咨询公司KLD,创建了一个名为“苏格拉底”的在线社会研究数据库,旨在帮助那些投资专业人士将环境、社会及管理因素纳入其投资决策中去。     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

Home bias and Dutch pension funds’ investment behavior

Using a panel data set of more than 600 Dutch pension funds (PFs) between 1992 and 2006, we investigate asset allocation behavior of Dutch PFs across multiple asset classes. We find that domestic investments, also known as home bias, in portfolio choices of Dutch institutional investors have fallen. We also find that the introduction of the euro, the dot-com crisis (1999–2001) and individual PF's characteristics are significant determinants of home bias. Overall, mature PFs’ portfolios are diversified internationally, whereas large PFs seem to prefer to only scale up their foreign, less-risky positions at the expense of domestic fixed-income positions. The effect of the dot-com crisis is more pronounced for domestic bonds, whereas the introduction of the euro was more important for domestic equities.     

Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9/11

We apply extreme value analysis to US sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value‐at‐risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9/11. We test whether semi‐parametric quantile estimates of ‘downside risk’ and ‘upward potential’ have increased after 9/11. The same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio. The latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress (so‐called ‘tail‐βs’). Taking 9/11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail‐βs often increase in a statistically and economically significant way. This might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New agricultural development criteria: a proposal for project design and implementation

An environment conducive to a viable emerging agricultural sector is developing in South Africa, but it has yet to benefit most resource-poor producers. Some of the crucial constraints are accessibility and affordability of resources and services. Centrally managed agricultural projects as the main historical development model have largely failed to live up to the expectation that this would be the ‘cutting edge’ of development. This paper argues that the failure of these projects was partly due to four criteria for development not being sufficiently incorporated into project design and implementation: technical aspects of a project must be reconciled with social structures and realities; farmer diversity must be dealt with through focused support; business linkages must be structured and maintained; and skills development and participation must be institutionalised. Two of these criteria – dealing with diversity and facilitating participation – are elaborated on through a case study in the North West Province of South Africa. Typology analysis led to the identification of four distinct farmer types and this was followed by a Logical Framework planning process to develop a unique support strategy for each type. The objectives and activities required for each type are quantified. It is argued that this model, extending the project cycle to include the four new development criteria, constitutes a model for small farmer entrance into a competitive market.     

Interest expectations and exchange rates news

Using a new survey data set ofmatched exchange rate and interest rate expectations for eight currencies relative to the German mark, we examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate returns, news and risk premia. News on interest differentials enters significantly in equations for the difference between the spot rate and the lagged forward rate for the British pound, Japanese yen, Spanish peseta and the US dollar. An unexpected rise in the interest rate differential tends to strengthen the domestic exchange rate. For each of these currencies, we also find significant effects of our ex-ante measure of the risk premium. In addition, we investigate the effect of lagged interest rate differentials as proxy for the risk premium and find that they do not capture time-varying risk premia as is widely suggested in the literature, but probably capture a peso-problem, learning about a policy change, a market-inefficiency or a combination of these factors.     

German stock market dynamics

This article estimates generalized ARCH (GARCH) models for German stock market indices returns, using weekly and monthly data, various GARCH specifications and (non)normal error densities, and a variety of diagnostic checks. German stock return series exhibit significant levels of second-order dependence. Our results clearly demonstrate that for both weekly as well as monthly return series the Student-t distribution is superior to the standard normal distribution. In particular, the estimated GARCH-t models appear to be reasonably successful in accounting for both observed leptokurtosis and conditional heteroskedasticity from German stock return movements.