Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Creating sustainable value in the hospitality industry: a (critical) multi-stakeholder study in the Dominican Republic

This paper identifies sustainable initiatives reported by “sustainability-champion” hotels in the Dominican Republic, while contrasting them against the views of key stakeholders. We adapt and apply Hart and Milstein's Sustainable Value Framework, and complement it with a Critical Management Studies approach. Our analysis relies on a mixed-methods approach (non-hierarchical k-means cluster analysis, as well as thematic and content analysis). Findings indicate that most hotels are engaging more actively in present-oriented strategies such as pollution prevention (especially, the international hotels) and in product/service stewardship. However, in the future-oriented strategies, hotels owned by local investors show higher commitment to both clean technology and innovation, and to the sustainability vision (as the firm's growth path). In addition, although the views of multiple stakeholders show a clear acknowledgment of the hospitality industry's sustainability efforts (particularly regarding education and environmental protection), they also offer differing views about the ultimate impact and value of those efforts for them and for the broader society. Our study offers a new theoretical lens to explore multi-stakeholder approaches and offers practical implications for the Dominican Republic's National Strategy for Development 2010–2030, as well as implications that may be of use for other tourism-dependent countries.     

The Adjusted Big Mac Methodology: A Clarification

The Economist's adjusted Big Mac index takes GDP into account in currency valuation, but the methodology is not explained. We show that the key to understanding the methodology is to distinguish between a currency's bilateral valuation (versus a specific currency) and the currency's overall valuation (versus a “basket” of a large number of currencies). Also, the adjusted Big Mac estimates of intrinsic foreign exchange (FX) rates have been better forecasts of actual FX changes than those of the original “raw” Big Mac index.     

Tacit collusion in housing markets: the case of Santiago,Chile

In this article, using a detailed micro-database from Santiago, Chile, the potential existence of tacit collusion in housing markets is investigated. In order to perform the test, Santiago’s housing market is split into four different submarkets using hedonic price analysis and household’s socioeconomics characteristics. Then, using a GMM panel data model, regressions are run for each submarket, correlating industry’s markups with the aggregate level of activity. The main finding is that low and middle income submarkets present higher average markups and a pro-cyclical behaviour. This finding is consistent with a market where participants do not face capacity constraints and behave strategically to sustain tacit collusion during increasing demand periods.     

Seeing Without Looking: The Effects of Hemispheric Functioning on Memory for Brands in Computer Games

The authors hypothesize that the effectiveness of in-game advertising is influenced by two inborn traits, bisected hemispheric functioning and physiological arousal, that are at the core of human behavior. A 2 (preattentive processing type) × 2 (arousal level) between-subjects design was employed in both Experiment 1 (well-known brand placement) and Experiment 2 (lesser-known brand placement). The results from the two experiments reveal that people show better recognition memory for in-game ads when brand names are presented peripherally in the right visual field and brand images are embedded peripherally in the left visual field. In addition, people can remember more brand ads when they experience less arousal (Experiment 1). This effect, however, is attenuated when unfamiliar brands are placed in the game (Experiment 2). Implications are discussed for further investigation.     

Effect of exploitation and exploration on the innovative as outcomes in entrepreneurial firms

The main aim of this study is to establish the effect of the Exploitation and Exploration; and the influence of these learning flows on the Innovative Outcome (IO). The Innovative Outcome refers to new products, services, processes (or improvements) that the organization has obtained as a result of an innovative process. For this purpose, a relationship model is defined, which is empirically contrasted, and can explains and predicts the cyclical dynamization of learning flows on innovative outcome in knowledge intensive firms. The quantitative test for this model use the data from entrepreneurial firms biotechnology sector. The statistical analysis applies a method based on variance using Partial Least Squares (PLS). Research results confirm the hypotheses, that is, they show a positive dynamic effect between the Exploration and the Innovative as outcomes. In the same vein, they results confirm the presence of the cyclic movement of innovative outcome with the Exploitation.     

The search for the best deal: How hotel cancellation policies affect the search and booking decisions of deal-seeking customers

This study examined cancellation policies and their role in shaping travelers’ deal-seeking behavior, exploring the impact of cancellation fees and deadlines on three, mutually exclusive, customers’ hotel booking behavior categories: “Book”, “Book and Search”, and “Search”. 291 subjects, who participated in a week long online “booking game”, attempted to book a room in a virtual hotel and get the best deal. The results were tested using small sample t-test for comparing proportions between two independent populations, non-parametric multiple pairwise comparisons, and multinomial logit regression models. The findings indicate that the cancellation deadline affected participants’ behavior while the size of the cancellation fee had no statistically significant impact. In addition, there was no significant difference between lenient cancellation deadline and no cancellation policy.     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.     

The Effect of Social Security Contributions on Coverage and Wages: A Gender Perspective Using a Natural Experiment from Colombia

This article investigates, from a gender and marital status perspective, the effects of pension and health care contributions on the employment and wages of workers covered by social security regulations. To do this, I use as a natural experiment a reform implemented in Colombia during the mid‐1990. In particular I employ a differences‐in‐differences estimation based on an endogenous switching‐regression model that accounts for self‐selection into coverage. My results indicate that, for females, a 10% increase in contributions reduces the relative wages of covered workers by 7.2%. On the other hand, for males, the reform increases the relative wages of covered workers by 7.1%. Among females, the effect is predominantly present in single women. Among men, divorced and widowed workers are the only group not to experience an effect on earnings. For most family groups, the social security reform has no significant effect on coverage.     

Stock picking,market timing and style differences between socially responsible and conventional pension funds: evidence from the United Kingdom

As far as we are aware, this study presents the first comparative analysis of the stock picking and market timing abilities of managers of conventional and socially responsible (SR) pension funds, and of their use of superior information. For the United Kingdom, the results obtained show a slight stock picking ability on the part of SR pension fund managers (although it disappears if multifactorial models are considered), and a negative market timing ability on the part of both SR and conventional pension fund managers (these results hold for multifactorial models controlled by home bias). In relation to the management styles, both conventional and SR pension funds usually invest in small cap and growth values, although it is the SR pension funds that are the most exposed to these styles. We also observed that, while conventional pension fund managers make certain use of superior information to follow stock picking strategies, managers of SR pension funds use superior information to follow market timing strategies.