Financial Liberalization Policies and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: The paper conducts an empirical investigation into the effects of financial liberalization policies on the growth of 19 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Two indexes are constructed which measure the gradual progression and institutional changes involved in financial liberalization. Because these indexes track specific financial liberalization policies, they provide better measures of financial liberalization than the indicators of financial development often used in the literature. Panel data estimates show a significant positive relationship between economic growth and financial liberalization policies. Our results are robust to alternative specifications of the model, and also across slow‐ and fast‐growing countries.     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

The effects of fragility and financial inequalities on inclusive growth in African countries

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion.     

Financial development and the evolution of property rights and legal institutions

Using a panel of 129 countries over the period from 1965 to 2008, we examine the role of financial development in the evolution of property rights and legal institutions. We postulate that changes in the level of financial development change the costs and benefits of, and the demand for property rights institutions. We predict, and find, a positive causal relationship between the level of financial development and the subsequent quality of property rights institutions, even after we control for country level heterogeneity and reverse causality. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that this relationship is especially strong in emerging market countries.     

Law and Finance Revisited: Evidence from African Countries

The law and finance theory essentially states that legal origins are a significant determinant of financial development. The conclusion from the law and finance theory is that countries whose legal traditions derived from British Common Law have better developed financial markets than countries following French Civil Law. This study conducted an empirical investigation of the law and finance theory for African countries. Our empirical results showed that legal origins are insignificant in explaining financial development but rather, legal effectiveness significantly explains cross‐country differences in financial development in Africa. We concluded that the law and finance theory does not hold in African countries.     

Endogeneity and the dynamics of internal corporate governance

We use a well-developed dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to alleviate endogeneity concerns in two aspects of corporate governance research: the effect of board structure on firm performance and the determinants of board structure. The estimator incorporates the dynamic nature of internal governance choices to provide valid and powerful instruments that address unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity. We re-examine the relation between board structure and performance using the GMM estimator in a panel of 6,000 firms over a period from 1991 to 2003, and find no causal relation between board structure and current firm performance. We illustrate why other commonly used estimators that ignore the dynamic relationship between current governance and past firm performance may be biased. We discuss where it may be appropriate to consider the dynamic panel GMM estimator in corporate governance research, as well as caveats to its use.     

Investor Protection and the Role of Firm‐Level Financial Transparency in Attracting Foreign Investment

We ask if companies can attract foreign equity capital by improving the transparency of their financial statements. Using a large panel of firms across 51 countries outside the United States, we show that the answer is yes, but only in countries with relatively high levels of investor protection. In countries with poor investor protection, unilaterally increasing firm‐level transparency has no effect on foreign ownership. Furthermore, our results indicate that in countries with higher levels of investor protection, the positive association between transparency and foreign ownership is stronger following a country's adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards.     

Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search

We examine the ability of online ticker searches (e.g. XOM for Exxon Mobil) to forecast abnormal stock returns and trading volumes. Specifically, we argue that online ticker searches serve as a valid proxy for investor sentiment — a set of beliefs about cash flows and investment risks that are not necessarily justified by the facts at hand — which is generally associated with less sophisticated, retail investors. Based on prior research on investor sentiment, we expect online search intensity to forecast stock returns and trading volume, and also expect that highly volatile stocks, which are more difficult to arbitrage, will be more sensitive to search intensity than less volatile stocks. In a sample of S&P 500 firms over the period 2005-2008, we find that, over a weekly horizon, online search intensity reliably predicts abnormal stock returns and trading volumes, and that the sensitivity of returns to search intensity is positively related to the difficulty of a stock being arbitraged. More broadly, our study highlights the potential of employing online search data for other forecasting applications.     

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

Abstract Beginning from the early 1980s countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa embarked on financial liberalization policies with a view to reversing the ill‐effects of financial repression. This paper provides a survey of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980 to 2004. Our review of empirical studies showed that financial liberalization has had diverse and contrasting effects on savings, investment and economic growth. Most studies found a significant positive effect of financial liberalization on investment whereas its effect on savings has been largely insignificant. The evidence on the effect on economic growth is inconclusive as different studies find contrasting results. It is found that financial liberalization policies have not had the desired and expected results as both financial and macroeconomic variables have not improved following financial liberalization in these countries. This calls for a rethinking of financial liberalization in Sub‐Saharan African countries. It is important that financial liberalization is carried out in a stable macroeconomic environment. In addition to this, there should be a building and reform of institutions and the strengthening of prudential regulation. Following this, financial liberalization can be embarked upon but it must be properly sequenced and not rushed.     

The size,concentration and evolution of corporate R&D spending in U.S. firms from 1976 to 2010: Evidence and implications

The use of research and development (R&D) spending as an empirical proxy for managerial discretion, information asymmetry and growth opportunities, is pervasive in empirical corporate finance research. Underlying this is the implicit assumption that firms choose levels of R&D to maximize value, given firm and industry characteristics. An alternative framework views the level of R&D spending as subject to idiosyncratic behavior as managers myopically manipulate R&D expenditures to meet short-term earnings goals. Using aggregate firm and industry level data, we find evidence consistent with the view that R&D is determined by firm and industry characteristics. Time invariant firm and industry fixed effects explain most of the cross-sectional variation in observed R&D spending, while time-varying factors like size, profitability, or market-to-book explain little of the cross-sectional variation. We find that R&D spending continues to grow faster than advertising and capital expenditures. We also find no evidence of managerial myopia as corporate aggregate R&D expenditures are growing faster than aggregate profitability and the number of firms that undertake R&D has increased over the period from 1976 to 2010.