Forecasting Bordeaux wine prices using state-space methods

Generic Bordeaux red wine (basic claret) can be regarded as being similar to an agricultural commodity. Production volumes are substantial, they are traded at high frequency and the quality of the product is relatively homogeneous. Unlike other commodities and the top-end wines (which represent only 3% of the traded volume), there is no futures market for generic Bordeaux wine. Reliable forecasts of prices can to large extent replace this information deficiency and improve the functioning of the market. We use state-space methods with monthly data to obtain a univariate forecasting model for the average price. The estimates highlight the stochastic trend and the seasonality present in the evolution of the price over the period 1999 to 2016. The model predicts the path of wine prices out of sample reasonably well, suggesting that this approach is useful for making reasonably accurate forecasts of future price movements.     

The impact of trade on the relative wages and employment of low skill workers in France

The impact of international trade on labour markets in developed countries will be different according to the degree of competition in product markets, the flexibility of the labour market and the skill intensity of production. An econometric analysis of the impact of trade in France has been undertaken using sectoral data for the period 1985–p1992. It is found that lower relative import prices reduce the relative employment of low skill workers in the first half the period and reduce their relative wages in the second half. In both cases the effect is more pronounced in sectors where the skill intensity of production is initially low.     

Low Pay and Wage Regulation in the European Community

The prospect of direct intervention in the process of wage determination as envisaged in the Social Charter has met with considerable criticism. In particular, employers' organizations and certain governments have rejected outright the proposal to require firms to pay an equitable wage. However, in all member-states except the UK and Ireland, arrangements exist to ensure that nearly all workers are covered by minimum wage protection (through national minimum wages or full-coverage collective agreements). In this article the nature of low-paid employment in member-states is examined and different methods of wage regulation are described. After reviewing the economic effects of wage regulation, we discuss possible initiatives on wage regulation at the Community level.     

An Empirical Study of Urban Credit Cooperatives in China

The overall objective of this study is to try and uncover to what extent the borrowing and lending pattern of Chinese urban credit cooperatives (UCCs) leads them to conform to the theoretical view of credit cooperatives and to what degree they are mainly characterized by elements which result from their regulatory environment and the status of China as an economy in transition. We provide evidence from a specially-commissioned survey on the characteristics and functioning of UCCs. Our statistical and econometric analysis points to the tentative conclusion that there are major regional differences in the performance of UCCs both in terms of the quality of loans granted and overall profitability. The latter is also influenced by the quality of the loans made, and this in turn is affected by the number of directors in the UCC and the extent to which the UCC grants loans to state-owned enterprises.     

The impact of the regulation of low wages on inequality and labour-market adjustment: a comparative analysis

In all continental European countries there exist non-marketmechanisms that determine or 'regulate' wage rates for the low-paid.We consider the experience of three countries that have nationalminimum wages France, Belgium, and the Netherlands - and threewhere low wage rates are determined through widespread collectivebargaining - Germany, Italy, and Denmark. We find that overallthere is less inequality (both wage and income) and less povertythan in the United Kingdom and the United States, where lowwages are less regulated. Furthermore, patterns of labour-marketadjustment - employment, unemployment, and gross job flows -vary greatly, suggesting that there is no one-to-one mappingbetween the presence of mechanisms to regulate low wages andlabour-market performance. Furthermore, wage shares have beenfalling since the early 1980s. It is therefore difficult toattribute high and persistent rates of unemployment found incertain countries to the existence of mechanisms to 'regulate'low wages.     

Why Manufacturing Industry Matters

Does a healthy economy require a prosperous manufacturing sector? S. Bazen and A. P. Thirlwall, of the University of Kent, argue that an expanding manufacturing sector is vital to the economy.