Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets

This study employs daily data for 14 commodities and three financial assets 1990–2009 to explore the impact of the time series properties of the futures‐spot basis and the cost of carry on forward market unbiasedness. The main result is that the basis of 16 assets exhibits both long memory and structural breaks. The long memory in the basis is robust even to the use of break‐adjusted data. It implies that the cost‐of‐carry has long memory which the empirical results confirm using the interest cost as a proxy. These new findings suggest that the forecast error has long memory and are inconsistent with unbiasedness. They could be consistent with a weaker version of market efficiency in the presence of a fractionally integrated, time‐varying risk premium but they could also be rationalized by priced noise trader risk with limits to arbitrage in less than fully efficient markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The potential impact of abolishing company tax in Ciskei

The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely effect of the abolition of company tax on the Ciskeian economy. After considering the case for and against a corporate tax exemption, the issues involved are analysed on two levels. Using aggregate data, drawn from available census data, we find that most firms seem likely either to prefer the existing package of industrial concessions to the tax holiday, or to be indifferent to either option. Similarly, a recent survey of manufacturing enterprises in Ciskei indicated that the majority would prefer the incentive package. Firms that might be attracted by the tax‐free option are likely to be relatively profitable, subsidiaries of multinational companies, and enjoying a higher turnover per worker than firms opting for the incentive package.     

BRITAIN'S FISCAL POLICY NIGHTMARE

What should the Chancellor do about the burgeoning budget deficit or Public Sector Borrowing Requirement. Brian Durrant, of the futures brokers GNI Ltd, outlines the problems posed by a PSBR that could exceed £50bn.     

Institutional change,property rights and economic performance in post‐apartheid in South Africa

This article examines redistributive institutional change in South Africa within the theoretical framework provided by North (1979; 1981; 1991) and Eggertsson (1990). By drawing a distinction between the productive potential of an economy and institutionally feasible production possibilities, we can develop an analytical structure for evaluating how alternative systems of property rights can affect productive activity in South Africa. Although this exercise cannot predict actual outcomes in South Africa, it does accord property rights a central role in a specific theory of institutional change, and accordingly may assist in determining how certain forms of institutional change can influence economic performance in a transitional democracy.     

The Impact of the Asian Economic Crisis on Southern African Economies

Although southern African economies appear to have escaped the initial phase of the East Asian economic crisis relatively unscathed, the second stage of the contagion was somewhat less benevolent in its influence on southern African economies. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of the Asian contagion on southern African economies within a general equilibrium framework. We use the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model to examine the implications of the Asian crisis for southern African economies. Bien que les économies des pays du sud de l’Afrique semblent avoir échappées à la première phase de la crise économique de L’Asie de l’est, l’effet de la deuxième phase a été plus néfaste envers les économies des pays sud africains. Cet article cherche à enquÁter sur l’impact qu’a eu la contagion asiatique sur les économies des pays sud africains dans un cadre d’équilibre général. Nous utilisons le modèle du GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) afin d’interpréter les implications de la crise asiatique sur l’économie des pays sud africains.     

Measuring the Transaction sector in the Australian economy, 1911–1991

Following Wallis and North's pioneering attempt to estimate the size of transaction costs in the United States over the period 1870 to 1970, we seek to augment this seminal study by applying their methodology to the Australian economy for the period 1911 to 1991. Broadly speaking, our results support the Wallis and North finding with comparable magnitudes and growth rates in both the private and public transaction sectors.     

Economic growth and redistribution in South Africa

The debate over appropriate methods of reducing racial income and wealth inequalities in South Africa has thus far yielded two opposing schools of thought. ‘Growth through redistribution’ and ‘redistribution through growth’ make countervailing claims concerning the efficiency gains and losses attendant upon redistribution. But the relation between economic growth and the redistribution of income and wealth may be more complex than commonly realised. From the literature surrounding Olson's (1982) Rise and Decline of Nations, especially Brock & Magee (1984) and Magee et al (1989), it can be shown that redistributive behaviour can actually increase the rate of economic growth in the short term, and depress growth in the longer term.     

A Factor Analytic Assessment of Financial Sustainability: The Case of New South Wales Local Government

Financial sustainability in local government remains a pressing problem which has seen a host of public policy interventions, including compulsory consolidation and performance monitoring through financial sustainability ratios. In September 2014, the New South Wales (NSW) Government announced a reform program centred on increasing scale in local government to make councils ‘fit for the future’. We apply factor analysis to the financial ratios informing the NSW Government's reform initiative to identify the underlying factors for observed financial performance data. We find evidence indicating that three independent underlying factors account for the adopted measures of financial sustainability. The public policy implication arising from this study suggests that the reforms imposed by the NSW Government on NSW municipalities may only meet with limited successa.