FORECASTING LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTER: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF MLC FORECASTS

Allocating resources to the provision of public forecasts may be justified as a means of reducing fluctuations arising from divergent expectations. In this paper we examine certain forecasts provided by the Meat and Livestock Commission. Our results indicate that these forecasts pass a number of tests of model adequacy. In particular they appear to be unbiased and efficient.     

The long memory model of political support: some further results

This article extends the results of Byers et al. (1997 Byers, JD, Davidson, JEHD and Peel, DA. 1997. Modelling political popularity: an analysis of long range dependence in opinion poll series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 160: 471–90. Series A [Google Scholar]) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,?d,?0) model, though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s had no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

Ethics, alterity, and organizational justice

This paper articulates a conception of organizational justice based on the promise of a mode of organizing that does not violate the particularity of each and every other person. It argues that the decisive condition for such a form of justice resides in the realities of the cultural practices of an organization as they are apparent in the conduct of people in relation to multiple others. These are practices that can only seek justification in the primary right of each person to be regarded with absolute alterity. It also argues that a degree of violence is unavoidable within any practical ordering of justice and that any consideration of ethics and justice in organizations must account for such violence and seek to negotiate its existence on ethical terms. The organizational justice that is referred to is one sensitive to the exercise of its own power and authority in the context of its unavoidable violation of its basis in ethics. This is a justice that is ethically necessary, but is never sure of itself.     

Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the U.S. economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports

Business Economics - America’s pursuit of low-cost overseas production and China’s thirst for export markets have resulted in industrial decline in the U.S. and raised serious questions...     

The Indirect Displacement Hypothesis: a Case Study in Washington,D.C.

Stereotypes abound about the clash between newcomers to urban neighborhoods and their longstanding residents. In a case study of Columbia Heights in the District of Columbia, the preferences and attitudes of newcomers and longstanding residents are compared. The comparison will help assess the extent to which indirect displacement pressures in the domain of retail activity might be occurring in Columbia Heights. Data from surveys conducted in 2008 by the Howard University Center for Urban Progress (HUCUP) form the empirical base of this study. A total of 217 completed surveys were received, 116 from an Internet survey and 101 one-on-one street interviews. The sample was split into thirds (according to length of time that the participant lived in the neighborhood) leading to break points at two years and eight years of residency. All respondents who lived in the neighborhood two years or less or eight years or more were kept in the final sample. The former were defined as “newcomers” and the latter were defined as “longstanding residents”. There were 77 newcomers and 74 longstanding residents in the final sample. The survey instrument inquired about respondents’ opinions about the availability and quality of stores by type, the variety of stores, and what types of stores they would like to see added to the neighborhood. Respondents were then asked their assessment of the new commercial developments and of the previously existing businesses in the corridor. Chi-square tests were used to test the hypotheses that there were differences between the two populations -- newcomers and long-standing residents -- in terms of preferences and attitudes. The findings demonstrated significant differences between the two groups in terms of their opinions about the commercial corridor, although both groups were generally pleased with the new retail developments. The analysis of these data weakly supports the hypothesis that indirect factors could heighten pressures for displacement of longstanding residents, but it is argued that the main focus of gentrification studies should continue to be on the direct economic factors affecting longstanding residents during neighborhood revitalization.     

Mapping research on legacy of mega sporting events: structural changes,consequences, and stakeholder evaluations in empirical studies

ABSTRACT

Findings from empirical studies on the legacy of hosting a mega sporting event are inconclusive. This paper considers empirical studies published in English language peer-reviewed journals between 1997 and 2016 to identify trends and gaps in current knowledge related to event-attributed changes in structures, consequences, and stakeholder evaluations. Following systematic literature search guidelines, 233 articles (238 studies) were coded. The authors assessed structural changes, consequences, and stakeholder evaluations. Contextual factors, such as type of event, timeframe, and geographical location were also considered, as well as research design, methods, and a risk of bias assessment. Most studies considered structural changes per se, without further specification (such as the urban and human level). Economic and social consequences were the two most often considered consequences. The range of stakeholders considered in the studies was diverse, although host city residents received the most research attention. The mapping helps scholars better understand dominant themes, critically appraise studies as well as identify gaps in existing research. The authors discuss managerial implications and propose research directions that address concerns: unclear definition and biased selection of relevant stakeholder groups, short legacy timeframes, and the low-level evidence for cause-effect relationships in the legacy production process.     

The effect of lender and loan type on a borrowing firm’s equity return

Past empirical studies appear to support the idea that banks and finance companies do not differ in their ability to resolve adverse selection problems associated with issuing new debt. In this article, we find there is a difference. More specifically, using an event study we find larger abnormal returns for secured loan disclosures to lower quality borrowers when the lender is a finance company versus a bank. This suggests the market views finance companies as more effective than banks in evaluating/monitoring lower quality borrowers obtaining secured loans. We posit this is due to finance companies’ greater expertise in this type of lending, resulting from specialization. Our findings extend the literature on how lender identity can influence signals about firm value from loan disclosures. Our results also support recent findings that positive abnormal returns to borrowing firms may not be a general feature across the loan population, but may be restricted to smaller, lower quality borrowers. Finally, we are the first to provide evidence that the market takes loan type into account, not just lender and borrower type, when considering the information embedded in loan disclosures.     

Habit,aggregation and long memory: evidence from television audience data

Many economic outcomes appear to be influenced by habit or commitment, giving rise to persistence. In cases where the decision is binary and persistent, the aggregation of individual time series can result in a fractionally integrated process for the aggregate data. Certain television programmes appear to engender commitment on the part of viewers and the decision to watch or not is clearly binary. We report an empirical analysis of television audience data and show that these series can be modelled as I(d) processes. We also investigate the proposition that temporal aggregation of a fractionally-integrated series leaves the value of d unchanged.