Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns

This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling one‐minute‐ahead return forecasts using the entire cross‐section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out‐of‐sample fit and forecast‐implied Sharpe ratios. This out‐of‐sample success comes from identifying predictors that are unexpected, short‐lived, and sparse. Although the LASSO uses a statistical rule rather than economic intuition to identify predictors, the predictors it identifies are nevertheless associated with economically meaningful events: the LASSO tends to identify as predictors stocks with news about fundamentals.     

Corrective advertising information processing by teenagers

In this study teenagers' understanding of corrective advertisements was measured at three levels: beliefs, attitudes and behavioural intentions. The results support the use of beliefs rather than attitudes or behavioural intentions to detect deception.     

House Prices, Housing Investment and Demography Forecasts from the LBS/Abbey National Model of the UK Housing Market

A new housing sector has been incorporated into the London Business School model. This article outlines the new housing model, summarizes the research which has gone into its construction, and presents a forecast of the UK housing market. Using the new housing model, we forecast a moderate recovery in the housing market in the later part of 1991 and 1992. This recovery is however short-lived and does not result in such high rates of house price increase as previous house price booms (Chart 1).
Cuts in interest rates following entry to the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS prompt a recovery in house prices from the middle of 1991. House price inflation then peaks with an increase in average UK house prices in 1992 of 11 per cent over the previous year. Increases in real personal disposable income are modest, by the standards of the 1980s, and for this reason the recovery does not develop the momentum of previous house price booms. House price inflation moderates again in 1993 falling back to around 7 per cent. Housing starts and housing investment recover only slightly from their present depressed levels.
the recovery in house prices is weaker than that foreseen in our April Forecast Release. This is because real personal disposable income is now forecast to grow more slowly during 1991. Sterling's membership of the ERM is followed by a fall in interest rates, but it is the timing of interest rate cuts rather than their magnitude which differs from the earlier forecast. The changed profile of interest rates has altered the house price forecast only marginally.     

BUILDING RELATED HOME ACCIDENTS: A PRELIMINARY STUDY

In the period August 1975 to July 1977 the Building Research Station undertook a pilot study to obtain data on home accidents in co-operation with the Watford General Hospital. Subject to precautions regarding medical confidentiality, information was recorded on patients who attended the Accident and Emergency Department of the hospital following an accident in or around a dwelling. In order to facilitate comparison with data on fatalities, use was made of the International Classification of Diseases ‘External Cause of Injury’ system to categorize accident events. It was found that the four main types of non-fatal accident were falls, accidents caused by cutting or piercing instruments, by striking against or being struck by objects, and by hot substances and steam. The study also showed that building features and services might rank relatively highly in terms of the frequency with which they become involved as agents in accidents when compared to other common household items.     

REVEALED INDEPENDENCE AND QUASTILINEAR CHOICE

Revealed Independence requires that revealed preferences satisfythe independence property from expected utility theory. Thiscondition is essentially the same as the quasi-linearity ofthe choice function; i.e., it is a linear operator on convexcombinations of budget sets. We demonstrate the equivalenceof the Strong and Weak Axioms of Revealed Preference for quasi-linearchoice functions with convex domains.     

INTRAINDUSTRY SPECIALIZATION AND THE UNITED STATES–CENTRAL AMERICA–DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper examines changes in intraindustry specialization indicators over the 1992–2004 period to assess the potential for structural adjustment problems that may arise in the United States with growth in trade resulting from the United States–Central America–Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA‐DR) between the United States and six Central American countries—Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. CAFTA‐DR will expand market access for US exporters. Few US industries are likely to encounter structural adjustment problems. Given the relatively large size of the US economy, and the small number of industries that face potential adjustment pressures, the United States should have liberalized all trade immediately. When potential adjustment pressures are indicated, long tariff phaseouts, complex rules of origin, and import safeguards are used to delay factor adjustments in import‐sensitive industries.