Positional learning with noise

We propose (and test experimentally) a model of observational learning in which players have social preferences. To this end, we design an experiment–based on a classic parlor game known as the Chinos Game–in which we vary (by way of an exogenous iid stochastic process) the probability of getting the prize in the event of a correct guess. By this design, we are able to estimate more efficiently players’ sensitivity to difference in payoffs (and how this sensitivity affects information decoding along the sequence). We also condition our estimates upon additional information on subjects’ socio-demographics, risk attitudes and cognitive reflection by way of a questionnaire that we collect at the end of each session.     

Adaptive model-based seasonal adjustment of time series: An Empirical Comparison with XII-ARIMA and SIGEX

Several model-based approaches have been proposed in recent years for adjusting and decomposing time series data. Using real world data, this paper presents results of a large scale empirical comparison of the XII-ARIMA and SIGEX procedures to DESAEP, a new adaptive model-based method that combines stochastic and deterministic effects. The comparison reveals no substantial inconsistencies in seasonally adjusted values produced by the 3 methods. As for the magnitude in revisions in both concurrent and forecasted seasonally adjusted values, an overall reduction by a factor of 2 to 3 was obtained with DESAEP depending on the level of variability in the data.     

A comparison of the estimates of expected utility and non-expected-utility preference functionals

This paper extends the literature on the estimation of expected utility and non-expected-utility preference functionals (and the consequent exploration of the superiority of non-expected-utility over expected utility preference functionals) to a comparison of two different ways (pairwise choice and complete ranking) of experimentally obtaining data on such preferences. What is revealed is that the magnitude of the subject error is clearly conditional on the elicitation method used and, rather alarmingly, that the preference functional apparently employed by the subject may also be conditional on the elicitation method.     

客户体验工程化

本文“体验工程化”指通过对产品和/或服务及环境所发生的关联关系进行系统化的设计和执行等途径来赢得客户的喜爱。     

Understanding intertemporal choices

Previous experimental results show clearly that many subjects do not optimize when solving a life-cycle consumption problem. What do they do? This paper attempts to resolve this question, looking at the discounting, hyperbolic and rolling models as possible explanations. Data from two experiments (one an experiment with a typical subject pool and the second an experiment with subjects from the CentER panel) is used, and the advantage of having experimental data is exploited, which means that one can actually estimate the hyperbolic model. It is shown that the (exponential) discounting model appears to give the best explanation – suggesting that subjects do look ahead (as they should) but increasingly less as time passes (as they should not in the context of these experiments).     

Can Natural Experiments Measure Behavioral Responses to Environmental Risks?

Efforts to measure people’s responses to spatially delineated risks confront the potential for correlation between these risks and other, unobserved characteristics of these locations. The possibility of correlation arises in part because individuals observe other locational attributes that can be expected to influence the hedonic equilibrium. One response to this problem is to use events from nature to exploit both temporal and spatial variation in the behavioral responses of interest. This paper evaluates the use of hurricanes as a source of new risk information to households in coastal counties potentially subject to the effects of these storms. We study the extent to which housing prices before and after hurricane Andrew, a hurricane with unprecedented property loss, reveal how Floridians responded to the risk information provided by the storm. Two counties are selected – one without and another with damage from the hurricane. To evaluate the plausibility of using quasi-random experiments for locations not directly affected by natural events, we compare Lee County’s results to those of Dade County, where the majority of the damage occurred. Our findings suggest, after controlling for ex post storm damage and changes in insurance markets, there is a reasonably high level of consistency in a repeat sales model’s ability to estimate the effects of the risk information conveyed by the storm for both counties. Department of Economics, Williams College, Affiliated Economist, CEnREP, North Carolina State University and University Distinguished Professor, North Carolina State University, and Resources for the Future University Fellow, respectively. Senior authorship is not assigned. Thanks are due to Shelby Gerking and two anonymous reviewers for careful and constructive comments that substantially improved the paper. Michael Darden and Jaren Pope provided excellent research assistance and Alex Boutaud and Susan Hinton helped to make sense out of numerous drafts of this work. Smith’s contribution was partially supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), grant number EMW-2004-GR-0112. However, any opinion, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.     

Proprietà analitiche delle soluzioni di un'equazione intergrale della teoria collettiva del rischio

Si studiano alcune proprietà analitiche (positività, monotonia, limitatezza, regolarità, ecc.) delle soluzioni dell'equazione integrale di Volterra (1) che si presenta nella teoria collettiva del rischio.

---

Summary We study some analytic properties (positiveness, monotonicity, boundedness, smoothness, etc.) of the solutions of the Volterra integral equation (1) arising in the collective theory of risk.

     

Financial Derivatives and Private International Law: Some Remarks

Financial derivatives are a product of financial innovation that is not possible to define by means of Italian legal definitions; the primary source of regulation for financial derivatives is the international trade law. Private autonomy plays a central role in derivatives transaction, and such party autonomy must be recognized by the sovereign state to be legally effective and enforceable. Standard derivatives contracts, although sophisticated, cannot eliminate totally the legal risk. This lacking, together with the problem of unclear identification of the jurisdiction applicable, makes the juridical aspects of derivatives more complex.     

“Teaching the Sushi Chef”: Hybridization Work and CSR Integration in a Japanese Multinational Company

While corporate social responsibility (CSR) is recognized as taking on various national meanings and practices, research has not sufficiently investigated how multinational companies (MNC) simultaneously achieve global CSR integration and local CSR adaptation. Building on a qualitative case study carried out at ASICS, an MNC headquartered in Japan, we show how this organizational dilemma may be solved through hybridization work, a form of institutional work performed by CSR managers in subsidiaries to combine and adapt different institutional approaches to CSR. By developing the notion of hybridization work, we contribute by (1) revealing a set of practices that contribute to institutional change within organizations and (2) enriching the study of CSR organizational change and international business by showing how hybridization Work leads to a greater organizational integration between core and periphery, and by identifying the triggering factors for subsidiary initiative in CSR.