Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean

In this paper, we aim to shed some light on the inflation dynamics in the Caribbean. We analyse the inflation rates for twelve countries using various time series methods. The results show that the inflation rates are mean reverting processes and that there is evidence of a convergence club in inflation rates within the area, which contradicts previous studies. Our contribution implies a high degree of similarity in the dynamics of our target countries' inflation rates.     

Convergence and divergence in Latin America, 1970-1998

This paper examines the process of convergence in Latin America over the period 1970–1998. There has been relatively little work on income convergence among developing countries in general and in Latin America in particular, even though many studies have examined convergence both within and among developed countries. There is little support for the convergence hypothesis over the sample period as a whole - although the beta coefficient is positive, it is insignificant. Convergence is strong in the 1970s but by the 1990s it has disappeared. There is no evidence of a narrowing in the cross-country dispersion of income (sigma convergence) for the sample period as a whole. The results offer little support for the neo-classical growth model - poorer countries have not grown faster than richer ones. There is a strong case for strengthening regional development policy.     

Money Demand and Economic Liberalization in a Small Open Economy—Trinidad and Tobago

Economic liberalization creates potential instability in money demand. The introduction of liberalization in the early 1990s coincided with instability in the long-run demand for broad money (M2). OLS estimates confirm the presence of a structural break in the M2 model. Monetary policy should be based on a narrow definition of money. Moreover, the demand for money function must take explicit account of the openness of the economy. The results have important implications for policymakers in other Caribbean countries that are contemplating economic liberalization.     

Convergence or divergence in cross-country growth?

In the traditional empirical convergence literature, a negative coefficient on initial income in a cross-country growth regression is interpreted as evidence of poor countries growing faster than richer ones. A key assumption in this work is that the relationship between initial income and income growth is linear. The linearity assumption is challenged in some new growth theories, and studies adopting an alternative (semi-parametric or nonlinear) econometric methodology provide support for a nonlinear specification. This paper finds evidence for nonlinear convergence. Using semi-parametric estimation we find that convergence occurs among countries with very low and very high initial incomes, suggesting that convergence clubs characterize the cross-country growth process. Our results provide further evidence for multiple-regime steady states.     

Inequality, corruption and the informal sector

The marginal impact of corruption on income inequality is shown to be a linear function of the size of the informal sector. This implies that anti-corruption policies alone are unlikely to reduce inequality in countries with a large informal sector.     

Is there a trade-off between income inequality and corruption? Evidence from Latin America

In contrast to other research, lower corruption is associated with higher income inequality. This result is consistent with the idea that the corruption–inequality relationship may be different where there is a large informal sector, as in Latin America.     

WHY DO RATES OF β‐CONVERGENCE DIFFER? A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The roles played by differences in study design and methodology in influencing the estimates of β‐convergence have been hinted at in narrative reviews of the empirical convergence literature. While such reviews are useful, they only provide informal evidence as to the reasons for the study‐to‐study variation in reported convergence rates. In contrast, meta‐regression analysis is a way of formally measuring the roles played by study design and methodology in influencing β‐convergence. In cross‐national studies, convergence rates are found to be higher when panel estimation methods are used, and when human capital development, investment rates and spatial factors are controlled for. The longer the time span covered by the estimation, the lower the rates. In intra‐national studies, β‐convergence is higher when the investment rate is included as a conditioning variable and when GMM estimation methods are used. Rates are found to be lower in studies of developing countries.     

Is Latin America Catching Up? A Time‐Series Approach

Most Latin American economies ended the twentieth century further behind the United States (in terms of productivity) than they had been in 1950. We investigate whether this reflects the effect of occasional economic setbacks or a systematic tendency to fall behind the United States. This is done using a time‐series approach that allows for up to two structural breaks in a series. We find evidence that relative productivity is a (broken) trend‐stationary process for most of the 18 countries considered but that only one, Chile, shows evidence of catching up with the United States at the century’s close.