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1.
Chetan Ahya Sumeet Kariwala 《海外经济评论》2008,(49)
[摩根士丹利11月6日]由于近几周金融市场形势恶化,2009年亚洲经济增长预期值的下调风险明显增大。而由于亚洲贸易与金融已实现高度一体化,一种负反馈循环已经在本地区迅速形成。目前,本地区经济增长面临着四种至关重要的风险:(1)外需冲击;(2)资本流入的急剧减速和资本成本的上升;(3)汇率冲击;(4)金融动荡的加剧。 相似文献
2.
Chetan hhya Sumeet Kariwala 《海外经济评论》2009,(23)
【摩根士丹利5月7日】危机前的资本支出增长极为强劲
近年来,日本之外亚洲(AXJ)地区的固定资本总投资(GFCF)出现了大幅增长,据我们估算,2001—2008年间,AXJ经济体的GFCF由9200亿美元(占GDP的28.5%)猛增至2.9万亿美元。本轮周期之中,GFCF从谷底到峰顶的升幅远超过上世纪90年代中期那轮周期的升幅。 相似文献
3.
Umang Ondhia H. J. Conter Scott Owen Anna Zhou Julian Nam Sumeet Singh 《Journal of medical economics》2019,22(7):625-637
Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness in Canada of atezolizumab compared with docetaxel or nivolumab for the treatment of advanced NSCLC after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy.Materials and methods: A three-state partitioned-survival model was developed. Clinical inputs were obtained from the phase III OAK trial comparing atezolizumab with docetaxel in patients with advanced NSCLC who progressed after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were extrapolated beyond the trial period using parametric models. A cure model assuming a 1% cure fraction was fitted to the OS data for atezolizumab. Outcomes for nivolumab were informed by a network meta-analysis (NMA) vs atezolizumab. Resource use and costs were informed by clinical expert opinion and published Canadian sources. Utility values were obtained from the OAK trial. The perspective of the analysis was that of the Canadian publicly-funded healthcare system. The base case time horizon was 10?years, and the discount rate was 1.5% annually for both costs and effects. Scenario analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results and all analyses were performed probabilistically.Results: Atezolizumab demonstrated a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.60 compared with docetaxel at an incremental cost of $85,073, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $142,074/QALY. Atezolizumab dominated nivolumab (regardless of dosing regimen), based on modest differences in both QALYs and costs. Docetaxel was most likely to be cost effective at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds below $125,000/QALY gained, while atezolizumab was most likely to be cost effective beyond this WTP threshold. In most scenario analyses, the results remained robust to changes in parameters. A reduced time horizon and alternative approaches to the NMA had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness results.Conclusion: Atezolizumab represents a cost-effective therapeutic option in Canada for the treatment of patients with advanced NSCLC who progress after first-line platinum doublet chemotherapy. 相似文献
4.
We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets. 相似文献
5.
Many academics and practitioners have reiterated the importance of online customer retention to ensure long‐term profitability. Consequently, a number of studies have identified various means of customer retention. These studies lay significant emphasis on creating customer loyalty. However, retaining customers, especially in the context of Internet shopping, is very difficult because of the low costs in comparison and switching. Most of the loyalty programs have also shown disappointing results. This study suggests that by tapping on an individual customer's inclination to resist changes in a transaction relationship, an Internet vendor can achieve customer retention. Using status quo bias theory, this study examines customer resistance to change (CRC) as a means of retaining customers in a transaction relationship with the Internet vendor. The empirical study of an Internet bookstore reveals that trust, relative attractiveness, and switching costs together influence CRC. The empirical results also show that CRC and switching costs have positive effects on willingness to pay more. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. 相似文献
6.
May Hagiwara Sumeet Panjabi Arati Sharma Thomas E. Delea 《Journal of medical economics》2019,22(8):818-829
Aim: To compare monthly healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs among adult patients with multiple myeloma (MM) receiving second or subsequent line of treatment (LOT) with carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone.Methods and materials: Adult MM patients who received carfilzomib or pomalidomide as second/subsequent LOT between 2006 and 2014 were selected from the MarketScan databases. LOT was determined using Medical/pharmacy claims using a published algorithm. For each patient, first LOT with carfilzomib or pomalidomide was defined as index LOT. Patients with first LOT as index LOT, who received other chemotherapy in combination with carfilzomib or pomalidomide, or who underwent stem cell transplant (STC) during index LOT were excluded. Monthly HRU and costs during index LOT were compared using inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) based on propensity scores for receipt of carfilzomib estimated by logistic regression with LOT, patient demographics, Charlson index, comorbidities, pre-index healthcare cost, and receipt of prior SCT as covariates.Results: After weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced among 114 carfilzomib and 144 pomalidomide patients. Mean (95% CI) numbers of outpatient visits per month were 7.1 (5.2–8.0) with carfilzomib and 4.7 (3.9–6.1) with pomalidomide (p?=?0.006). Otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups in mean monthly HRU and costs or median time to therapy discontinuation. Mean (95% CI) monthly total healthcare costs were $19,776 (15,322–27,748) with pomalidomide and $17,321 (12,412–21,874) with carfilzomib (p?=?0.522).Limitations: Comparison of carfilzomib vs pomalidomide may be biased if there are unobserved factors not balanced by IPTW. The relatively small sample size limits the power of analyses to detect potential differences between treatment groups.Conclusions: Monthly HRU and costs are similar among patients with relapse or refractory MM patients receiving carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone. 相似文献
7.
This paper studies both positive and normative aspects of quantity-based capital controls in a small open economy undergoing
a temporary inflation stabilization plan. In the model, capital controls are implemented by choosing two policy variables:
a ceiling on the private sector debt and a terminal date for removing controls; the date on which controls trigger and hence
its duration are endogenously determined. Equilibrium dynamics are characterized for all feasible range of debt ceilings and
durations. Temporary controls that end with the collapse of the stabilization plan are shown to mitigate consumption boom-bust cycles and dominate
allocations under perfect capital mobility, thus providing a “second-best” rationale for employing them. For controls that
are prolonged beyond the collapse of the stabilization plan, equilibria exist even when the debt ceiling is above the debt that accumulates
under perfect capital mobility. Here, if the ceiling is sufficiently low, controls mitigate consumption cycles. Conversely,
a sufficiently high ceiling amplifies consumption cycles. For prolonged controls, there is a critical value of debt ceiling
below (above) which the welfare is higher (lower) relative to the perfect capital mobility case. Finally, for a given debt
ceiling, prolonged controls rank lower in welfare than those that end with the stabilization plan.
We would like to thank two anonymous referees and the editor whose suggestions have helped us improve the paper substantially.
The usual disclaimer applies. 相似文献
8.
This paper, in the spirit of Poole [Poole, William, 1970. The Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Macro Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 192–216.], studies how differently monetary and fiscal shocks influence the appropriate choice of the monetary policy regime. Velocity shocks are introduced by embedding a stochastic cash-in-advance constraint within the New Keynesian framework. In addition to optimal policy under discretion, three classic rules, interest rate targeting, monetary targeting, and the Taylor rule are ranked under both fiscal and velocity shocks. The non-stationarity of prices under the Taylor rule makes it inferior to the other rules under which prices are stationary. Monetary targeting, by stabilizing aggregate demand under fiscal shocks, outperforms interest rate targeting, while the latter provides a better insulation against velocity shocks. Monetary targeting (under fiscal shocks) and interest rate targeting (under velocity shocks) even outperform the optimal policy under discretion for sufficiently high intertemporal elasticities of consumption substitution. 相似文献
9.
Chetan Prajapati Abhay Agrawal Ravish Atha Manav P. Suri Jayesh P. Sachde 《International journal of injury control and safety promotion》2017,24(1):136-139
A prospective analysis of 104 patients (outdoor and indoor) with manja (powdered glass coated kite string) injury from January 2011 to January 2015 was carried out at Civil Hospital Ahmedabad. All patients were analysed for mode and severity of injury, site of injury, associated injuries, activity being performed when injury occurred, the clinical diagnosis and treatment required. Analysis of collected data revealed that majority of the injuries occurred while driving or in pedestrians with the neck being the most commonly affected body part. Males were more commonly affected with most of the victims in the age group of 16–45 years. Injuries sustained while driving tended to be more severe. All injuries were recorded in the month of January. No deaths were reported, but potentially fatal injuries did occur. Most of the injuries were superficial and could be prevented or mitigated by either protective clothing or by use of protective devices on vehicles, which should be implemented to reduce the morbidity of such injuries in the future. There were no ethical issues or vested interests associated with the study. 相似文献
10.
The authors study a temporary exchange-rate based stabilization plan in which agents face a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model generates a rising path of real interest rates in advance of the exchange rate collapse. This generates a time-dependent non-monotonic path of required premium on domestic assets. The model-generated asset price dynamics closely mimic their empirical counterpart, as witnessed during recent collapses of exchange-rate based stabilization plans. The model also reproduces consumption and foreign reserve dynamics that closely mimic the data. 相似文献