Disequilibrium models due to a “learning by doing” process

Sommario Si considerino fluttuazioni e crescita in un modello neo-keynesiano in tre diverse ipotesi macroeconomiche, che danno origine a diversi modelli matematici in tempo discreto, o mappe. In particolare si analizza un modello di crescita bidimensionale, rappresentato da un endomorfismo lineare a tratti. Separando il comportamento dinamico delle pendenze di rette che escono dall'origine, dalla dinamica dei punti su tali rette, si mostra che il comportamento dinamico del modello è governato dalla dinamica di un endomorfismo unidimensionale. Ciò semplifica lo studio dei valori di biforcazione che creano rette invarianti, su cui le traiettorie sono divergenti, e consente di determinare il bacino di attrazione di regioni assorbenti che contengono i cammini di crescita, regolari o caotici.

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Fluctuations and growth in a new-keynesian model are considered in three different macroeconomic assumptions, giving rise to different mathematical models in discrete time, or maps. In particular a two-dimensional growth model represented by a piecewise linear endomorphism is analysed. Separating the dynamics of the slopes of straight lines issuing from the origin, from those of the points on these lines, it is shown that the dynamics of the model are governed by the dynamics of a one-dimensional endomorphism. This simplifies the study of the bifurcation values which create invariant lines on which the trajectories are divergent, and enable us to determine the basin of attraction of the absorbing region which includes regular or chaotic growth paths.

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This paper relates to the activities of the M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Nonlineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

A model of growth with inherited tastes

This research aims at studying a general equilibrium closed economy with overlapping generations and inherited tastes (aspirations), as in de la Croix (Econ Lett 53(1):89–96, 1996). It shows that the interaction between the intensity of aspirations and the elasticity of substitution of effective consumption affects the qualitative and quantitative long-term dynamics from both local and global perspectives. The related literature is extended by showing that (1) the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation found by de la Croix (1996) does not necessarily give rise to fluctuations and (2) endogenous (long-lasting) fluctuations occur through the emergence of period-doubling bifurcations.     

Factors affecting brainstorming: towards the development of diagnostic tools for assessment of creative performance

To test a model of creative behaviour in teams, twenty five problem-solving groups were assembled from a Business School graduate programme, trained in creative problem-solving techniques and given a realistic product development task. Self-assessment ratings were collected for factors perceived as influencing performance. Three experienced trainers rated the ideas produced. Four major factors were identified from the self-assessed statements, each mentioned as positive and negative influences. The study provides a foundation for developing diagnostic tools for assessing creative performance in problem-solving teams, and gives pointers to factors which are important for improving performance.     

全球股市低迷 亚洲首当其冲

一年前，当信贷危机在美国和欧洲刚刚崭露头角时，许多投资者都将亚洲股票视为了天堂。时至今日，全球股市经历了6个多月的下跌，而亚洲市场的跌幅位居前列。     

Using macro-societal accounting data: Some critical afterthoughts

There is a tendency among researchers working in the societal accounting field to focus almost exclusively on conceptual exploration, design and measurement. This article suggests that it may be desirable to venture beyond the strictly theoretical and methodological domain and work towards satisfying concrete user needs. Personal experience is adduced to show that the output of the societal accounting movement falls short of providing the informational basis for management and political decision-making. Some ideas are also put forward as to possible ways of reducing the gap between the researcher/analyst and users of societal accounting data.     

Identification of Marketing Needs and Means of Communication of Romanian Marketing Companies in the Context of the Knowledge Society

A few decades ago, academics and economic pundits used to say that information is the main source of power. However, in the Knowledge Society, as we experience it today, information is readily available for everyone, and the real challenge is to master modern and complex information analysis tools, which can make sense of the information overflow of modern society, thus constituting the true competitive advantages of major economic players. For a competent analyst, data generated by a survey, for instance, can reveal paramount information about consumer behavior, competitive strategies, or any other economic and social environment-related aspect deemed important. The marketing needs of Romanian marketing companies are very diversified, commencing with the research of the needs and demand on the target market, going down to the 4Ps (Product, Price, Promotion, and Placement) and their components. The present marketing research was performed using seven categories of information sources: specialized publications in marketing; specialized publications in economics; information provided by specialized institutions in consultancy and marketing research; information provided by individual marketing specialists; information provided by advertising agencies; information provided by the economic sections of the daily newspapers; and job Websites.     

Personality and the creativity of frontline service employees: linear and curvilinear effects

Abstract

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between the Five-Factor model of personality and creativity. As this model has been criticised for providing a limited account of an individual’s personality, this study considers additional personality traits that have recently been investigated in the literature as determinants of employee behaviour. Moreover, we also contribute to the existing body of literature by conducting this study in a service setting, for which we predict personality traits will exert differentiated effects on creativity when compared to other settings. Finally, while past research has focused on linear effects, this study examines the existence of non-linear effects between personality and creativity. The results indicate that personality traits apart from the Five-Factor model have an impact on creativity and that the effects of several personality traits on the creativity of frontline service employees differ from those obtained in other settings. Lastly, the findings also show that five of the personality traits have non-linear effects on creativity, and this may be a stimulus for a new stream of research in the human resources literature.     

Alternative futures and foreign direct investment in China

Chinese history is littered with sharp policy swings, and the communist era, which has not yet fully drawn to a close, has witnessed a veritable embarrassment of riches. This has provided a fertile ground for researchers engaged in crystal ball gazing. Recently, momentum has accelerated on that front, a development apparently reflecting the increasingly fluid political‐economic conditions in the country. The scenarios generated can serve as an effective reference point in planning exercises, but there is scope for solidifying the conceptual architecture. The issue of rendering them highly relevant to foreign investors, presumably very important potential consumers of the product, should also be addressed.