Stochastic Payments per Claim Incurred

We propose a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the payments per claim incurred (PPCI) algorithm. Based on the PPCI algorithm, two submodels are proposed for the number of reported claims run-off triangle and the PPCI run-off triangle, respectively. The model for the claims amount is then derived from the two submodels under the assumption of independence between the number of incurred claims and the PPCI. The joint likelihood of the number of reported claims and claims amount is derived. The posterior distribution of parameters is estimated via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling approach. The Bayesian estimator, the process variance, the estimation variance, and the predictive distribution of unpaid claims are also studied. The proposed model and the HMC inference engine are applied to to an empirical claims dataset of the WorkSafe Victoria to estimate the unpaid claims of the doctor benefit. The Bayesian modeling procedure is further refined by including a preliminary generalized linear model analysis. The results are compared with those in a PwC report. An alternative model is compared with the proposed model based on various information criteria.     

Complex Network of Aviation E-Services in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Heuristic Study of Small Data based on Block Modeling

ABSTRACT

The aviation e-service system is an important part of support for business communication in regions covered by Belt and Road initiative. In exploring the role of airline companies in this system, we examine the structure of the network, which consists of airlines interconnections based on small data of individual attributes of aviation companies in aviation e-services, and study these interconnections across different groups using block modeling. The heuristic solution of airline companies in development of international communication and cooperation is further discussed. Among our policy implications for global managers, we suggest the enhancement of cross-regional cooperation among airlines.     

How Owners Matter? An Examination of Ownership Type in Corporate Disaster Relief Giving

Little research has investigated the effect of ownership identity (or type) and corporate philanthropy experience on giving. In this research, relying on legitimacy theory, we first assess the effect of ownership identity on corporate philanthropy (CP) in the context of the 2008 earthquake in China. Then we explore moderation effects of firms' prior CP experience and size as proxies for perceived legitimacy on owners' efforts at increasing giving and legitimacy. We find that state and CEO ownership are deterrents, while non‐SOE and institutional ownership enhances giving probability and amount. In addition, there is evidence that firm size and prior CP weaken the effects of institutional ownership on CP. This study provides a complete assessment of owner behaviour. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Idiosyncratic Information,Moral Hazard,and the Cost of Capital

This paper examines the effects of idiosyncratic accounting information on a firm's cost of capital. By embedding a moral hazard problem into a multifirm asset‐pricing model, I show that moral hazard distorts the sharing of idiosyncratic risk but does not affect the sharing of systematic risk in the economy. A firm‐level improvement in idiosyncratic information reduces the firm's cost of capital even though it does not affect the implied cost of capital inferred from publicly traded shares. Moreover, an economy‐level improvement in idiosyncratic information reduces the risk premium for idiosyncratic risk but increases the risk premium for systematic risk, resulting in an ambiguous net effect on the firm's cost of capital. These results provide alternative explanations for the mixed empirical evidence on the relation between information quality and the cost of capital.     

The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

大片里的小心机空姐教你如何美美地上镜

入职重庆航空前,王秋丹是一名兼职模特,她爱拍照也特别会拍照.在她的微信朋友圈里,她有时化身邻家女孩在树荫下喝茶看书,有时变身异域少女载歌载舞……不管什么造型,照片里的她看起来总是美美的,特别上镜. 如何拍出这样美美的"大片"?王秋丹说除了选好环境、打扮漂亮之外,肢体语言也很重要,这里有一些小技巧.     

协作型企业供应链管理

供应链管理作为一种新型的企业关系管理模式在现代市场竞争中为企业生存与发展提供了一种工具。本文针对协作型企业供应链管理进行了研究。协作型企业供应链由于其业务联系上的紧密性与其他供应链有所不同，在生产计划制定上强调生产计划的一致性与协调性，核心企业与供应企业在生产计划制定方面的信息共享；在销售管理上强调企业与销售商集成式管理。     

年薪制“两次喊停”告诉我们什么？

6年来,国企经营者年薪制改革两次因故受阻,这其中存在一些亟待解决的深层次问题。要理性认识年薪制改革当前的目标和作用,认识这一改革的艰巨性和长期性,突出重点,化解主要矛盾,推进年薪制改革顺利进行。     

发展中国远期外汇品种的优先次序

中国人民银行宣布自2005年7月21日起中国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。这是中国在汇率形成机制市场化改革进程中迈出的重要的关键一步,这表明人民币汇率的变动将更加灵活、具有弹性。此后不久,央行在8月10日推出促进银行间外汇市场发展的重大举措,其中包括扩大即期外汇市场交易主体、允许开办银行间远期外汇交易、并允许符合资格的市场会员开展人民币掉期交易等。这意味着,在新的汇率制度下,政府正加快发展完善远期外汇市场的步伐,从而为市场主体提供更充分、有效的避险工具,避免汇率变动对实…     

公路建设中路线方案多属性决策方法的研究

路线方案的比选是公路建设项目前期的一项重要工作,直接影响着项目建设能否达到预期的目标以及项目投入运营中的使用效果,如行车的安全性、舒适性、快捷性等。进行路线方案比选时,要考虑路线的线形合理性、对周边地区环境影响,项目经济效益、施工难易等多种因素对影响。本文在分析路线方案比选复杂性的基础上,对多种决策方法进行对比,选择TOPSIS法作为路线方案的决策方法。算例的结果表明该方法应用的可行性和有效性。