Rich and Poor Countries in Neoclassical Trade and Growth

A neoclassical growth model provides an explanation for a 'poverty trap', 'club convergence', or 'twin peaks', in terms of specialisation and international trade. The model has many countries with identical linearly homogeneous technologies for producing three goods using capital and labour. With diverse initial endowments, initial equilibrium has unequal factor prices and two diversification cones. With savings out of wages, following Galor (1996), there may easily be multiple steady states. Poor countries converge to a low steady state while rich countries converge to a high one, even though all share identical technological and behavioural parameters.     

全球化与WTO：利益分析及争端解决

一、引言“全球化”这一说法是最近才开始流行的,而我们这些贸易经济学家对它的研究历史却有几十年甚至上百年了;世界贸易组织(WTO)也是最近才成立的,而国际贸易方面的法律专家对它和它的前身--GATT的研究也已近五十年了。在前面的两种情况中,国际贸易方面的专家都会强调世界经     

What Might Globalisation's Critics Believe?

Critics of globalisation object to many things, some of which can be easily understood within standard economic models, but others of which seem to reflect a view of the world that economists generally do not share. This paper attempts to identify several alternative frameworks for analysis within which some of their criticisms may be understood, with the ultimate aim of extracting testable implications that differ from standard models. Three such alternative models are suggested, all of which focus mainly on the behaviour of owners and managers of corporate capital: an anti‐labour model, in which capitalists are willing to sacrifice some of their own profits for the chance to make labour worse off; a labour‐monopsony model in which capitalists co‐operate globally to increase profits by depressing wages; and an international political economy model in which capitalists use their resources to influence the political process for more than just obtaining import protection. This third framework, which is not spelled out in any detail here, has capitalists seeking policies such as export subsidies and other means of promoting market access, and it also has them influencing the international negotiations that set the rules of international agreements and organisations, such as the NAFTA and WTO. Examples of the latter sort of influence are discussed.     

The impact of tariffs on profits in the United States and other major trading countries

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen von Z?llen auf die Gewinne der Unternehmen in den Vereinigten Staaten und anderen gr?▾eren Handelsl?ndern. - In diesem Aufsatz wird das Michigan-Modell benutzt, um die Auswirkungen der Protektion auf die gesamten Gewinne und die Stückgewinne in den USA und anderen wichtigen Handelsnationen zu untersuchen. Es ergibt sich, da▾ die Protektion die Gewinne in den Exportsektoren st?rker verringert, als sie die Gewinne derjenigen Sektoren verbessert, die mit Importen konkurrieren. Allerdings bleiben die Gesamtgewinne aus der Kombination von exportorientierten und importsubstituierenden Unternehmen im allgemeinen von den bestehenden Z?llen unbeeinflu▾t. Au▾erdem finden die Gewinntransfers zwischen Exporteuren und importsubstituieren-den Unternehmen meistens innerhalb der gleichen Branche und nicht zwischen verschiedenen Branchen statt. Deshalb erh?hen allgemeine tarif?re Ma▾nahmen kaum die Gewinne von US-Industrien. Nur Tarife, die auf bestimmte Produktgruppen gerichtet sind, k?nnten derartige Wirkungen haben.

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Résumé L’effet des droits de douane sur les profits dans les Etats Unis et des autres pays principaux commer?ants. - Dans cet article le modèle Michigan de production mondiale et de commerce est appliqué pour analyser l’effet de la protection sur les profits totaux et par unité dans les Etats Unis et des autres pays principaux commer?ants. Les auteurs trouvent que la protection réduit les profits dans les secteurs exportatrices plus qu’elle stimule les profits dans les secteurs en concurrence avec les importations. Cependant, les profits totaux des entreprises exportatrices et en concurrence avec les importations ensemble ne sont pas affectés par des droits de douane existants. De plus, la majorité des transferts des profits entre les entreprises exportatrices et en concurrence avec les importations se passe dans la même industrie au lieu d’entre des industries. C’est pourquoi, il est conclu que des mesures générales tarifaires probablement n’augmentent pas les profits des industries des E.U. Ce ne sont que les droits de douane sur des groupes des biens spécifiques qui exercent un tel effet.

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Resumen El impacto de los aranceles sobre los beneficios en los Estados Unidos y otros países de importancia en el comercio international. - En este trabajo se utiliza el modelo de productión y comercio mundiales de Michigan para analizar el impacto de la protectión arancelaria sobre los beneficios totales y por unidad en los Estados Unidos y otros países de importancia en el comercio international. Los resultados indican que la protectión disminuye los beneficios en los sectores de exportatión y estimula los beneficios en las industrias que compiten con las importaciones, superando el primer efecto al segundo. Los beneficios totales de las empresas de exportatión y sustitución de importaciones juntas, empero, generalmente no son afectados por los aranceles existentes. Además, la mayor parte de la transferencia de beneficios entre exportadores y empresas de sustitución de importaciones tiene lugar dentro de la misma industria y no entre industrias diferentes. Por ello, medidas arancelarias de tipo general no son susceptibles de mejorar los beneficios de las industrias de los EE UU. Solamente aranceles que afecten a determinados grupos de productos podrían tener ese efecto.

     

Policy Implications of the Trade and Wages Debate

This paper examines the choice of policies to redistribute income in response to an increase in inequality caused by a rise in the differential wage paid to skilled labor compared with unskilled labor. The main issue is whether the appropriate policy response depends on whether the cause of the increased skill differential is 'trade'—increased competition with low-skilled workers abroad—or technological change. The analysis is conducted within the context of a two-sector Heckscher–Ohlin trade model augmented to allow endogenous determination of the level of skill.     

Trade and Labor Standards

The purpose of our paper is to explore the different views of the issues of international labor standards and to explore the available options for addressing these issues. We conclude that: (1) there is no convincing case on theoretical or empirical grounds for incorporating labor standards into the WTO and into U.S. trade agreements; (2) the surest way to improve labor standards is for the United States and other industrialized countries to maintain open markets and to encourage the economic growth of their developing country trading partners; and (3) steps should be taken to support the activities of the International Labour Organization (ILO) to provide inducements and technical assistance to help developing countries raise their labor standards.     

The correlation between price and output changes when there are many goods

It is shown that competition in the production of many goods implies a positive correlation between the elements of a vector of changes in normalized prices and the corresponding vector of changes in outputs.     

The terms-of-trade effect on expenditure: Some evidence from econometric models

The terms-of-trade effect on expenditure has been a long-recognized theoretical construct. In this paper, we examine the empirical credibility of this effect, using the expenditure equations of several large econometric models in terms of their formulation of real versus nominal variables. We find evidence of both positive and negative effects of import prices on various categories of expenditure. Thus, there is no consensus as to the direction of the terms-of-trade effect.