Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Price Stability and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

We revisit Friedman’s case for flexible exchange rates in a small open economy with several distortions and rigidities and a variety of domestic and external shocks. We find that, for external shocks, the flexible exchange rate regime outperforms the fixed regime independent of the source of domestic nominal rigidities provided that the monetary authorities pursue a policy of strict inflation targeting. For domestic supply shocks, a joint policy of a flexible exchange rate and strict inflation targeting fares well when the main source of nominal rigidities is in the domestic goods markets, but not if rigidities arise in the labor markets.     

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.     

Imperfect information and the business cycle

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the new Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the Central Bank. A third on persistent mis-perceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK-DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.     

Business cycles and schooling

It has been suggested that recessions are the appropriate time for undertaking activities that promote long-term performance (such as re-organization, human capital investments, R&D). In this paper, we study the cyclical patterns of one such activity, namely schooling. In particular, we examine the cyclicality in the school enrollment rates of various age groups in the US. The overall pattern is countercyclical. In addition, schooling seems to respond negatively to the expected real interest rate. Overall, the results seem to support the view that variation in opportunity costs associated with business cycles plays a major role in schooling decisions.     

Euler equations and monetary policy

Euler equations are the key link between monetary policy and the real economy in NK models. Under separable preferences, they fail to match interest rates. Non-separability between leisure and consumption significantly improves their fit and reliability for studying monetary policy.     

Financial Development and the Sensitivity of Stock Markets to External Influences

The paper investigates how the relative contribution of external factors to stock price movements varies with the degree of financial development. It is found that financial development makes stock markets more susceptible to external influences (both financial and macroeconomic). Interestingly, this effect is present even after having accounted for capital controls and international trade effects.