Accounting records of large rural estates and the dynamics of agriculture in Catalonia (Spain), 1850-1950

In this article the agrarian accounts generated by the large rural estates of Catalonia (Spain) during the period between 1850 and 1950 are studied with a twofold objective. First of all, their formal characteristics and content are described and it is argued that the traits and variations observed are a consequence and reflection of the social conditions under which they were generated. Second, we evaluate the use which Catalan rural historiography has made recently of these documents in order to reconstruct the functioning and evolution of contemporary agriculture.     

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

From feudal colonization to agrarian capitalism in Mallorca: Peasant endurance under the rise and fall of large estates (1229–1900)

The colonization of Mallorca gave rise to a late‐feudal agrarian society that evolved towards capitalism based on large estates owned by noblemen who hired large numbers of wage labourers from among smallholders living in agro‐towns, the dispossessed remnants of a formerly wealthier peasantry. These well‐off peasants originated from when the colonization frontier was open in the 13th and 14th centuries, but had been defeated when three peasant–plebeian revolts were crushed. Afterwards, Mallorca followed a latifundist transition towards agrarian capitalism similar to southern Italy or Spain, in sharp contrast with the middle‐peasant paths seen in Catalonia or Valencia. The land rent rose, while agricultural wages fell from 1659 to 1800. Peasant families could not survive, and had to supplement wages with the products of their own plots. This set a socio‐agroecological limit to growth in this agrarian class structure. The agrarian crisis at the end of the 19th century bankrupted the Mallorcan nobility. Bankers bought much of the land and sold it on as small allotments. This expanded the intensive cropping formerly limited to agro‐town belts, giving rise to a new “peasantization”. Despite their subordination, Mallorcan peasants had survived and created complex agroecological landscapes endowed with a rich biocultural heritage.     

Ethical Challenges in Strategic Management: The 19th IESE International Symposium on Ethics,Business and Society

This paper is the Introduction to the Special Issue comprising a selection of papers submitted to the 19th IESE International Symposium on Ethics, Business and Society. The main topic of the Symposium was “Ethical Challenges in Strategic Management.” The paper presents the rationale and context of the Symposium. We begin with a brief historical overview of the evolution of the relationship between ethics and strategy. We propose four pillars that are at the core of a definition of strategy and elaborate on how ethics can contribute to strategy. We present the six papers that make up this selection within the framework of the four aspects introduced in the previous section. We conclude with some proposals for further research that consider the content of the papers.     

Spanish Stock Returns: Where is the Weather Effect?

Psychological studies support the existence of an influence of weather on mood. Saunders (1993) and Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) argue that the weather could affect the behaviour of market traders and, therefore, it should be reflected in the stock returns. This paper investigates the possible relation between weather and market index returns in the context of the Spanish market. In 1989, this market changed its open outcry trading system into a computerised and decentralised trading system. Therefore, it is possible to check the influence of weather variables (sunshine hours and humidity levels) on index returns in an open outcry trading system, and to compare it with a screen traded environment. The empirical evidence indicates that, independently of the trading system, there is no influence of weather on stock prices. Thus, these findings do not contest the notion of efficient markets.     

Labour,nature, and exploitation: Social metabolism and inequality in a farming community in mid‐19th century Catalonia

Exploiting the labour of other people has historically been one of the main strategies to tackle the biophysical tension that always exists between the satisfaction of human needs and the labour required to fulfil them. Based on the insights of ecological, feminist, and Marxist economics, we disentangle the exploitation of the labour of women and labouring poor through a novel methodology that integrates energy, material, time, and cash balances. We apply it to the sociometabolic flows between household units endowed with different land and livestock resources in a traditional rural community in Catalonia (Spain) in the mid‐19th century. The results show that land and livestock hoarding led to a process of accumulation through dispossession that increased the exploitative relationships through the labour market, which in turn relied on the patriarchal division of labour between men and women at home. Our estimates of energy labour surplus reveal that male wages represented 88% of the equivalent consumption basket that would have been obtained by carrying out the same amount of labour on land of one's own. However, in the case of female wages, the percentage was 54%. This shows that wage labour incorporated a significant amount of unpaid domestic family labour.     

THE GRAPE PHYLLOXERA PLAGUE AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT: THE UPKEEP OF VINEYARDS IN CATALONIA (SPAIN), 1858–1935

This paper analyses the impact in Catalonia of the grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865–90). A statistical model is used to analyse the economic resilience of 35 districts in Catalonia to this external ecological and economic shock, and to explain why districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona resumed growing wine grapes after the plague, in contrast to districts in Girona and Lleida provinces. The opportunity cost of labour, the demand pull of Barcelona's commercial growth, and the agro-climatic suitability of land for growing grapes are used to explain the differing capacities of districts to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.     

Combination forecasts of tourism demand with machine learning models

The main objective of this study is to analyse whether the combination of regional predictions generated with machine learning (ML) models leads to improved forecast accuracy. With this aim, we construct one set of forecasts by estimating models on the aggregate series, another set by using the same models to forecast the individual series prior to aggregation, and then we compare the accuracy of both approaches. We use three ML techniques: support vector regression, Gaussian process regression and neural network models. We use an autoregressive moving average model as a benchmark. We find that ML methods improve their forecasting performance with respect to the benchmark as forecast horizons increase, suggesting the suitability of these techniques for mid- and long-term forecasting. In spite of the fact that the disaggregated approach yields more accurate predictions, the improvement over the benchmark occurs for shorter forecast horizons with the direct approach.     

Belgian economic policy uncertainty index: Improvement through text mining

Recently, the literature has measured economic policy uncertainty using news references, resulting in the frequently-mentioned ‘Economic Policy Uncertainty index’ (EPU). In the original setup, a news article is assumed to address policy uncertainty if it contains certain predefined keywords. We argue that the original setup is prone to measurement error, and propose an alternative methodology using text mining techniques. We compare the original method to modality annotation and support vector machines (SVM) classification in order to create an EPU index for Belgium. Validation on an out-of-sample test set speaks in favour of using an SVM classification model for constructing a news-based policy uncertainty indicator. The indicators are then used to forecast 10 macroeconomic and financial variables. The original method of measuring EPU does not have predictive power for any of these 10 variables. The SVM indicator has a higher predictive power and, notably, changes in the level of policy uncertainty during tumultuous periods of high uncertainty and risk can predict changes in the sovereign bond yield and spread, the credit default swap spread, and consumer confidence.     

Social metabolism,landscape change and land-use planning in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region

The present work explores the synergies between socio-metabolic energy use and landscape patterns, starting from the hypothesis that there is a complex and changing relationship between the efficiency in both the societal use of energy, and land-use, and the ecosystem functioning of the whole land matrix of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (BMR). It first compares changes in the social metabolism (i.e. the total energy or material throughput of the economy) and in landscape structure and function from 1850 to the present in three municipalities of the Vallès county (N of the BMR), as a first attempt to establish a link between the societal uses of land and energy together with their impact on landscape patterns. Secondly, the study explores the role of natural versus rural landscapes on the maintaining of basic functional properties such as connectivity in the whole BMR. We base our analyses on parametric methodologies that describe both structural and functional properties of landscapes, aimed at assessing the landscape efficiency of both energy-use and land-use planning. The first comparison reveals that the simultaneous loss of energy efficiency and land-use efficiency from the mid-19th century to present can be tracked by changes in the functional landscape structure. The second study shows the importance of the traditional rural landscapes in maintaining the ecological quality of non-built-up land. In consequence, the organized complexity of the land system necessary to host biodiversity and basic ecological processes cannot be guaranteed if the agro-forestry mosaic is not taken into account, together with the network of protected areas.