Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

Accounting records of large rural estates and the dynamics of agriculture in Catalonia (Spain), 1850-1950

In this article the agrarian accounts generated by the large rural estates of Catalonia (Spain) during the period between 1850 and 1950 are studied with a twofold objective. First of all, their formal characteristics and content are described and it is argued that the traits and variations observed are a consequence and reflection of the social conditions under which they were generated. Second, we evaluate the use which Catalan rural historiography has made recently of these documents in order to reconstruct the functioning and evolution of contemporary agriculture.     

Ethical Challenges in Strategic Management: The 19th IESE International Symposium on Ethics,Business and Society

This paper is the Introduction to the Special Issue comprising a selection of papers submitted to the 19th IESE International Symposium on Ethics, Business and Society. The main topic of the Symposium was “Ethical Challenges in Strategic Management.” The paper presents the rationale and context of the Symposium. We begin with a brief historical overview of the evolution of the relationship between ethics and strategy. We propose four pillars that are at the core of a definition of strategy and elaborate on how ethics can contribute to strategy. We present the six papers that make up this selection within the framework of the four aspects introduced in the previous section. We conclude with some proposals for further research that consider the content of the papers.     

THE GRAPE PHYLLOXERA PLAGUE AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT: THE UPKEEP OF VINEYARDS IN CATALONIA (SPAIN), 1858–1935

This paper analyses the impact in Catalonia of the grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865–90). A statistical model is used to analyse the economic resilience of 35 districts in Catalonia to this external ecological and economic shock, and to explain why districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona resumed growing wine grapes after the plague, in contrast to districts in Girona and Lleida provinces. The opportunity cost of labour, the demand pull of Barcelona's commercial growth, and the agro-climatic suitability of land for growing grapes are used to explain the differing capacities of districts to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.     

Belgian economic policy uncertainty index: Improvement through text mining

Recently, the literature has measured economic policy uncertainty using news references, resulting in the frequently-mentioned ‘Economic Policy Uncertainty index’ (EPU). In the original setup, a news article is assumed to address policy uncertainty if it contains certain predefined keywords. We argue that the original setup is prone to measurement error, and propose an alternative methodology using text mining techniques. We compare the original method to modality annotation and support vector machines (SVM) classification in order to create an EPU index for Belgium. Validation on an out-of-sample test set speaks in favour of using an SVM classification model for constructing a news-based policy uncertainty indicator. The indicators are then used to forecast 10 macroeconomic and financial variables. The original method of measuring EPU does not have predictive power for any of these 10 variables. The SVM indicator has a higher predictive power and, notably, changes in the level of policy uncertainty during tumultuous periods of high uncertainty and risk can predict changes in the sovereign bond yield and spread, the credit default swap spread, and consumer confidence.