How Reliable Are the Findings of ‘Foreign’ Investor Studies That Use TIC Data? A Look from the Host Market

Empirical literature on foreign investors' trading in stock markets heavily relies on US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Biases in TIC data and the fact that it represents only one source country raise questions on how reliable the conclusions based on TIC data are. Employing novel data of complete foreign flows compiled at destination, we answer these questions. Although the correlations between net flows derived from TIC and destination‐compiled data are low, and visible differences exist in some individual country results, TIC findings are not far off in central tendency. Notably, however, net foreign flows' persistence, positive response to world returns and positive contemporaneous correlation with local returns are more significant than TIC data suggest. Measurement noise in TIC data appears to result in underestimation of these key features.     

Trade credit and supplier competition

This paper examines how competition among suppliers affects their willingness to provide trade credit financing. Trade credit extended by a supplier to a cash constrained retailer allows the latter to increase cash purchases from its other suppliers, leading to a free rider problem. A supplier that represents a smaller share of the retailer’s purchases internalizes a smaller part of the benefit from increased spending by the retailer and, as a result, extends less trade credit relative to its sales. In consequence, retailers with dispersed suppliers obtain less trade credit than those whose suppliers are more concentrated. The free rider problem is especially detrimental to a trade creditor when the free-riding suppliers are its product market competitors, leading to a negative relation between product substitutability among suppliers to a given retailer and trade credit that the former provide to the latter. We test the model using both simulated and real data. The estimated relations are consistent with the model’s predictions and are statistically and economically significant.     

Interest group politics in a federation

The optimal degree of decentralization depends on the importance of inter-state externalities of local policies. We show that inter-state externalities are determined by the spatial distribution of interest groups within the country. Interest groups who have multi-state scope internalize inter-state externalities to a larger extent than the lobbyists with interests within a single state. We use variation in the geographic boundaries of politically-powerful industrial interests to estimate the effect of inter-state externalities on firm performance. Using firm-level panel data from a peripheralized federation, Russia in 1996–2003, we show that, controlling for firm fixed effects, the performance of firms substantially improves with an increase in the number of neighboring regions under influence of multi-regional business groups compared to the number influenced by local business groups. Our findings have implications for the literatures on federalism and on international trade as trade restrictions are a common source of inter-state externalities.     

Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian states at Eurandom

We review some of the work on non-Gibbsian states of the last 10 years, emphasizing the developments in which Eurandom played a role.     

Strategic Cost of Diversification

This article proposes a new explanation for the large cross-sectionalvariation in the excess values of diversified firms. The modelapplies the idea of shareholders' limited liability affectingfirms' output market strategies to the analysis of financialand operating choices of conglomerates. The inability of conglomeratesto commit to unconstrained optimal operating strategies, followingfrom the lack of flexibility in choosing their divisions' capitalstructures, reduces their value. Thus, the model highlightsa new type of inefficiency of the conglomerate organizationalstructure, which is suboptimal financing. The predictions ofthe model are generally supported by the data.     

Autocracies and regional integration: the Eurasian case

The establishment of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010, succeeded by the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, constituted an important discontinuity in the development of post-Soviet regionalism: while the preceding organisations remained cases of ‘ink-on-paper’ regional integration, in the case of the Customs Union the members actually implemented their commitments. This creates an important theoretical challenge: the literature (which the previous experience of Eurasian regionalism was very much in line with) conjectures that authoritarian states are unable to successfully implement an economic regional integration agreement (RIA). The aim of the article is to explore the conditions under which implementation of economic RIAs by autocracies happens. We argue that the implementation is influenced by the extent of economic, social and political ties between member states, and suggest that, unlike democratic states, which are more likely to implement a RIA where there are strong economic ties, non-democracies are more likely to do so in the case of intermediate economic dependence.     

Posting,quoting, and replying: a comparison of methodological approaches to measure communication ties in web forums

Active involvement in discussion-based communities is nowadays a firm part of people’s online activities. The measurement of communication ties and networks between contributors to such domains is thus becoming a relevant research question in social sciences. However, especially in web forums, very often almost no direct relational information exists that would indicate the presence of communication ties among contributors. In contrast with the reply-to structure of Usenet newsgroup or mailing list conversations that contain explicit relational information created by the contributors, some web forums only enable participants to add new posts to threads or to quote preceding posts in threads. When discussions emerge, it is difficult to identify who is replying to whom. Drawing on the social network studies dealing with the conversational patterns in Usenet and web forums, this paper presents an alternative approach to identifying the ties between authors of posts. Several assumptions are discussed, and different measures are developed and empirically evaluated. The findings provide a starting point for the development of a standardized methodology for studying social networks in online communities where only limited direct information about communication ties is available.     

Agent-based modelling in directional-change intrinsic time

We describe an agent-based model where trades happen in event-based time called directional-change intrinsic time. Events are defined as the reversal price moves of a directional-change threshold from a local extreme. The price impact of traded volumes is modelled according to the empirically observed squared root impact function. The time series generated by the agents is characterised by statistical properties typical for foreign-exchange rates: low autocorrelation of returns, fat-tailed distribution of returns, aggregated normality, and the price jump scaling law. Furthermore, we introduce and use as a benchmark, the overshoot scaling law, which is an omnipresent feature of liquid markets and relates the expected length of price overshoots to the length of the corresponding directional-change threshold.     

Multidimensional screening under nonlinear costs: Limits of standard approach

We generalize the usual screening approach and conditions for efficiency-at-the-top and acyclic property from linear to fixed-plus-separable or concave costs and multidimensional commodities. But under non-concave costs, like capacity constraints, an example shows a cycle in the solution graph. The cycle makes the standard screening solution non-implementable and approach inadequate.