Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a direct gauge of how well‐anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations obtained from financial markets. This new model‐based measure of inflation expectations uncertainty is more accurately estimated and can provide valuable information for policymakers. Using U.S. data, we find significant changes in inflation expectations uncertainty during the Great Recession.     

Política de la legislación laboral en el sur de China. Las cámaras de comercio y otros organismos extranjeros ante las leyes sobre negociación colectiva

En 2010, tras la huelga en Honda, hubo protestas laborales en toda China. Los gobiernos de Shenzhen y Guangdong reaccionaron desempolvando los proyectos de Decreto sobre consulta colectiva y de Normativa sobre gestión democrática de las empresas, retirados con anterioridad. Pero tras la oposición frontal de cámaras de comercio y organismos gubernamentales extranjeros, hongkoneses y taiwaneses, volvieron a retirarse. Mediante entrevistas, los autores revelan los medios de influencia en la legislación laboral china de estos actores, cuyas actitudes dependen de la posición de las empresas representadas en las cadenas mundiales de producción y del modelo de relaciones laborales de su país o territorio de origen.     

Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

We provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis.     

Why Option Prices Lag Stock Prices: A Trading-based Explanation

While many studies find that option prices lead stock prices, Stephan and Whaley (1990) find that stocks lead options. We find no evidence that options, even deep out-of-the-money options, lead stocks. After confirming Stephan and Whaley's results, we show their results can be explained as spurious leads induced by infrequent trading of options. We show that the stock lead disappears when the average of the bid and ask prices is used instead of transaction prices. Hence, we find no evidence of arbitrage opportunities associated with the stock lead.     

A Field Study of Control System “Redesign”: The Impact of Institutional Processes on Strategic Choice*

Abstract. This paper studies the role of an organization's accounting control system (ACS) as part of an interrelated control “package,” in which other control systems function either as substitutes or complements. Drawing on resource dependence and institutional theories, it argues that this control mix is not only contingent on the organization's technical environment but also on its institutional environment. In addition, the paper draws on empirical evidence to demonstrate how the design of the “package” is actively shaped by the strategic choices of its dominant coalition. The empirics are based on a longitudinal field study of one large, public teaching hospital in Australia that underwent material changes in its governance structure, culture, and accounting control system. Résumé. Les auteurs étudient le rôle du système de contôle comptable d'une organisation, à titre d'élément d'une « famille » de systèmes de contrôle reliés entre eux à l'intérieur de Iaquelle les autres systèmes de contrôle jouent le rôle de substituts ou de compléments. S'inspirant de la théorie de la dépendance des ressources et de la théorie institutionnelle, ils affirment que cette combinaison de systèmes n'est pas seulement tributaire de l'environnement technique de l'organisation, mais de son environnement institutionnel. Ils se fondent, en outre, sur des constatations empiriques pour démontrer comment la structure de la « famille » de systèmes est activement façonnée par les choix stratégiques du groupe dominant. Les données empiriques proviennent d'une étude longitudinale sur le terrain, menée auprès d'un important hôpital public universitaire australien dont la structure de régie, la culture et le système de contrôle comptable ont connu des transformations majeures.     

FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AND THE FUTURE OF APEC TRADE PATTERNS

The heads of state of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations have committed member nations to remove all barriers to trade both among themselves and with respect to the rest of the world by 2020. The present paper uses a simple econometric model of bilateral trade flows based on country size, relative factor endowments, and trade barriers of importing as well as exporting countries to estimate the shares by country of origin in imports of each of the 16 major APEC countries and the rest of the world for each of 45 commodity groups comprising world trade in commodities. The estimates reveal that APEC trade would be expanded by 13% with complete liberalization of tariff barriers, by an additional 5% if nontariff barriers are also removed, and by another 4% if the rest of the world would also remove all barriers to trade. Variants on this base scenario show that such trade expansion could be substantially reduced were trade liberalization, capital growth, or both to be reduced in the countries affected by the Asian financial crisis. ( JEL Fl, F17)     

Measuring the Performance Drivers of a Pilot Implementation of a Purchasing Card System

Corporate purchasing cards have been offered as an efficient means of maintaining control over purchasing while reducing the administrative cost associated with the acquisition of low-dollar items. However, despite its growing popularity, there has been little systematic research on the use of this technology. This study uses archival data and a survey of users from a single large organisation to describe the nature of purchasing card technology and to investigate the consequences of its implementation. The card was found to be more positively accepted by younger, more committed employees who had shorter periods of tenure at the organisation studied, but who had received higher levels of supervisory encouragement, and who had more experience with credit cards.