Smuggling and parallel markets for exports

This article proposes a model of smuggling consistent with the coexistence of firms involved in strictly legal trade with firms involved in smuggling. A framework is presented in which a firm's degree of risk aversion and the level of government enforcement are the determining factors in the decision of the firm to smuggle or not to smuggle. The model demonstrates that smuggling must be welfare enhancing or all smuggling activity will end.

This article also provides a theoretical analysis of the effect enforcement has on smuggling and welfare. Increased enforcement is shown to have a negative effect on welfare. Government enforcement is assumed to have two policy instruments it can use to combat smuggling: (1) the probability of detection and (2) the monetary penalty. The relative effectiveness of government enforcement instruments in deterring smuggling is shown to be dependent on the degree of firm risk aversion.     

Joint-Product Export Smuggling and Export Tax Policy

The effect of smuggling on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate is an unresolved issue in the smuggling literature. Clandestine and joint-product smuggling models arrive at different conclusions concerning smuggling's effect on tax revenue collection and the revenue-maximizing tax rate. Clandestine (joint-product) smuggling is consistent with the assumption that legal and illegal trade are substitutable (complementary) activities for the exporting firm. The effect of smuggling on the tax rate and tax revenue is shown to be dependent on whether smuggling and legal trade are assumed to be complementary or substitutable activities.     

Expected Utility,Risk, and Marketing Behavior: Theory and Evidence from the Fed Cattle Market

The effect of carcass quality uncertainty on the structure of the slaughter cattle market is investigated. A theoretical extension of the “Theory of Factor Price Disparity” is provided. It is demonstrated that the coexistence of a risk premium wedge between marketing channel (live weight, dressed weight, and grid) pricing mechanisms, in conjunction with varying degrees of producer risk aversion or producer perception of carcass quality uncertainty, contributes to the coexistence of multiple marketing channels. It is also demonstrated that risk and risk preference provide the linkage between carcass quality uncertainty and producer marketing decisions. We demonstrate how this linkage can affect the structure of the fed cattle market and the variability in slaughter volume across marketing channels. We also confirm the linkage between value‐based production techniques that increase seller information on carcass quality and seller increased usage of grid pricing regardless of actual carcass quality. Empirical evidence is provided in support of the supposition that carcass quality uncertainty plays a role in grid market share variability.     

Risk and marketing behavior: pricing fed cattle on a grid

A seven‐year comparative study of grid pricing versus average pricing of slaughter cattle was conducted to evaluate carcass quality market signals. The primary objectives of the study are to determine: (1) if market signals sent through the grid pricing system indicate an improvement in the grid incentive mechanism over time, (2) how changes in the grid premium and discount structure associated with carcass quality affect the market risk premium, and (3) if changes in price risk (variance) affect producer marketing decisions. An Exponential‐Autoregressive‐Conditional‐Heteroskedasticity‐in‐Mean (EARCH‐in‐Mean) modeling procedure was adopted. Empirical results suggest that the grid premium and discount structure is slowly adjusting carcass quality market signals to encourage marketing on a grid and discourage marketing by the pen. The inclusion of the conditional variance in the empirical model indicates that variance associated with the carcass quality risk premium adds financial risk associated with the adoption of grid pricing.     

Measuring risk attitude of agricultural producers using a mail survey: how consistent are the methods?

A mail survey is used to examine the consistency of alternative risk preference elicitation procedures using five commonly used methods. These elicitation procedures have been used in previous studies to characterise risk preference. Results show little consistency across procedures, supporting strength-of-preference studies. A general recommendation for mail surveys is the development of relatively easy-to-understand risk-preference elicitation procedures that are framed according to the situational construct in question.     

Competitive forces affecting capacity decisions of South Dakota feedlot operations

A strategic management framework for the analysis of small and medium size firm behavior within a fragmented industry structure is developed. This literature predicts falling profits in the long run will drive out less efficient firms as the industry consolidates. This literature also predicts successful firms will engage in value-added production and/or adopt a cost reduction strategy to gain a competitive advantage through the development of niche markets. This framework is applied to the feedlot industry in South Dakota. A survey was conducted to collect feedlot operator responses on future capacity decisions. Empirical analysis identified linkages between future capacity decisions and competitive forces hypothesized in the agricultural management literature, which are responsible for driving consolidation in the U.S. feedlot industry. The survey also collected information on value-added production and management practices. These data were used to test the “niche market” hypotheses discussed in the strategic management literature. The analysis provides evidence that firms that engage in value-added practices have a lower probability of indicating they will decrease the capacity of their feedlot.     

Variance risk premiums and predictive power of alternative forward variances in the corn market

We propose a fear index for corn using the variance swap rate synthesized from out‐of‐the‐money call and put options as a measure of implied variance. We find negative and time‐varying variance risk premiums (realized variance minus implied variance) in the corn market from 1987 to 2009. Our results contrast with Egelkraut, Garcia, and Sherrick (2007), but are in line with the findings of Simon (2002). We conclude that our synthesized model‐free implied variance estimation procedure contains superior information about future realized variance relative to traditional model‐dependent estimating procedures: the implied variance model by Black (1976) and the seasonal GARCH(1, 1) forecasted variance model. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:587–608, 2012