An analysis of repressed inflation in two transition economies

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a true rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.This paper was funded by a World Bank project on formerly planned economies. We would like to thank Jong-goo Park for suggesting the topic, and Fabrizio Coricelli and Adnan Mazarei for helpful discussions. The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the World Bank.     

A general-equilibrium model of a traditional Soviet-type economy

This paper presents an abstract, static model of a traditional Soviet-type economy, in which there are three kinds of agents (planners, firms, and consumers). A quantity-oriented incentive system for managers is described, as is a planners' allocation mechanism. There are technology-determined prices for producer goods and market prices for labor and consumer goods, which are sold by retail stores from which the planners collect a turnover tax. There are also profit and income taxes. A consumer-market equilibrium is shown to exist for each plan, and the results of simulations using fixed-point computation techniques are discussed. J. Comp. Econ., June 1977, 1(2), pp. 147–165. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.     

International versus domestic auditing of bank solvency

This paper examines alternative ways to prevent losses from bank insolvencies. We develop a model that compares two alternative institutions for bank auditing. The first is a system of central bank auditing of national banks. The second is carried out by an international agency that collects and disseminates risk information on banks in all countries. The international auditor is shown to perform at least as well, and sometimes better than, auditing by either central banks or voluntary disclosure by the banks themselves in preventing losses. The international auditor's credibility comes from the fact that its incentives are not distorted by a sovereignty bias.     

The allocation of badly needed goods to low-income consumers: A system of central planning without redistributive taxation

A simple planning model is constructed that is designed to deliver more of certain badly needed goods to poor consumers than they would receive under a competitive system. The model increases the supply of the badly needed goods, while minimizing the cost, in terms of welfare losses, of the increased production to those consumers for whom the goods are relatively unimportant. Simulation examples are used to demonstrate the methodology, which is sufficiently general to be used to represent many different central-planning systems.     

Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses

In this paper, we study the impact of changes in the urban labor force and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and bank failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate, or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.     

The role of interest rates during the transition to a market economy

We construct a simple two period model of an economy in transition from being centrally planned to being market oriented. Using this model, we draw certain positive conclusions about economic policies that reduce distortions during the transition period. In particular, we focus on the role of interest rates, a market parameter that has previously been almost entirely ignored in planned economies. Using stylized data derived from Czechoslovakia, we show that increase in nominal interest rates can actually be welfare-improving by partially compensating for the distortions induced by the transition process.The model is sufficiently general to be applied to a number of transition economies, and we use the cases of Czechoslovakia, the USSR, and China as examples of some of the phenomena that we are trying to explain. We show that the model generates a constrained, suboptimal equilibrium. In particular, we see that raising interest rates during the transition period reduces repressed savings, brought about by shortages in the controlled market. An improvement in consumer utility can therefore be brought about.A large part of the work in this paper was carried out while I was a Visiting Scholar in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. I would like to thank Mario Blejer, Nadeem Ul-Haque, and Sweder Van Wijnbergen for helpful comments. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the opinions of the International Monetary Fund.     

The Role of Infrastructure in Mexican Economic Reform

This article estimates the relationship between the provisionof public infrastructure and private output in sixteen sectorsin Mexico. The sector-specific cost functions depend on wages,the cost of capital, and the nominal values of the stocks ofthree types of infrastructure: electricity, transport, and communications.The article concludes that infrastructure in electricity andcommunications generally reduces the cost of sectoral production,but transportation infrastructure tends to increase costs ofsectoral production. It appears that Mexican public expenditureon electricity and communications has enhanced the productivityof private production, but expenditure on transport may actuallyhave had a detrimental effect on private output. In addition,although in general labor and infrastructure are substitutes,in the case of electricity and communications infrastructure,capital and infrastructure are complements. In the case of transportinfrastructure these conclusions are reversed.     

Tax reform, the informal economy, and bank financing of capital formation

This paper develops a model that relates businesses’ entry into the underground economy to tax rates and the need to access the banking system. The model uses a dynamic approach in which both firms and banks optimize and in which the benefits to a firm of accessing the banking system are endogenous. A firm compares the return to capital with the marginal tax rate on capital income and uses the difference to determine how much of the tax to pay. At the same time, banks use a firm’s capital tax payments, combined with the capital tax rate to obtain an estimate of the firm’s minimum capital value. If the firm pays at least some taxes then it will have access to the banking system, which will allow it to finance investment. If the firm pays no taxes, then it cannot access the banks and cannot invest. We compare the equilibria resulting from tax compliance and tax evasion. We calibrate the model to a highly stylized version of the Russian economy, and analyze the effect of potential tax changes on the underground economy. We compute a dynamic equilibrium for our model, and note that it tracks the path of certain macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy (GDP, budget and trade balances, price level and interest rate) with some accuracy for the years 2001–2008. We are unable to track the underground economy, as this data is unobservable. We then carry out a series of counterfactual simulations, first asking if non-capital intensive firms have an incentive to evade taxes under existing value added tax rates. We find that they do, and that the incentive would have been greatly reduced if the value added tax rate had been selectively reduced for the non-capital intensive sectors. We then ask what the effect would be if the corporate tax rate were raised on capital intensive sectors. The simulations indicate that the capital intensive sectors would not increase their entry into the underground economy.     

The link between macroeconomic adjustment and sectoral output in post-reform China

We construct a two-part model of the Chinese economy. The first part consists of a money supply equation, a real money demand equation, and a savings equation. The second part comprises a set of sectoral equations. The model estimated is then used to generate a dynamic simulation of the paths of real national income, the aggregate price level, sectoral output, and sectoral prices. The model tracks quite well within sample, thus indicating that it may be used to analyze the future effects of policy changes. We therefore carry out counterfactual policy simulations based on monetary changes.     

The Welfare Analysis of a Free Trade Zone: Intermediate Goods and the Asian Tigers

We analyse trade reform among the ASEAN countries, which recently began removing all mutual trade barriers. The standard method to avoid complete specialisation in traded goods is to distinguish goods both by physical type and place of origin (the so‐called Armington assumption). This methodology is not suitable for the sort of intermediate goods produced by the ASEAN countries. We develop a computational approach in the context of a non‐Armington dynamic general equilibrium model. Analysing the results of a calibrated version of the model, we find that trade liberalisation is generally welfare improving for the ASEAN countries.