Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market

A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures

This article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to USDA crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer "newsworthy," that is, provide no better production estimates than private forecasts. The information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents' harvest-time corn price expectations, which are uncovered using a Hamilton-type modeling approach. Results show that reports are still "newsworthy," as they would contribute to agents' price expectations if released a day early. Thus futures price reactions, which closely reflect price expectations, are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis.     

Consistency of UK Pension Fund Investment Performance

Transition matrix techniques are used to relate the past and present performance of pension fund portfolios. In particular, funds are ranked to study the tendency of portfolios to remain in the same quartile of the ranking as they were in the previous period. For raw returns, funds in both of the top quartiles are found to be more likely to remain in the same quartile than would be expected by chance. This result can be taken as limited evidence for the consistency of performance. Similar systemic effects are observed on a risk-adjusted basis. There appears to be clear evidence that some fund managers can offer a degree of consistent good performance.     

Market Incentives for Safe Foods: An Examination of Shareholder Losses from Meat and Poultry Recalls

Meat and poultry recalls, while voluntary, are carried out under governmental oversight. If firms have financial incentives to avoid being implicated in a recall situation, governmental involvement in recalls may cause firms to internalize social costs when making investment decisions concerning food safety controls. To examine these incentives, we analyze federally supervised meat and poultry recalls from 1982 to 1998 within an event study. Results show significant shareholder losses when publicly traded food companies are implicated in a recall involving serious food safety hazards. We find no evidence that the stock market reacts negatively when recalls involve less severe hazards.     

Brighter prospects? Assessing the franchise advantage using census data

This paper uses Census microdata to examine how starting a business as a franchise rather than an independent business affects its survival and growth prospects. We assess factors that influence the decision to become a franchisee and use various empirical approaches to correct for selection bias in our performance analyses. We find that franchised businesses on average exhibit higher survival rates than independent businesses; but importantly, the difference is small compared with claims in the trade press. The effect is also short lived: conditional on surviving a year or two, we no longer find survival (or growth) differences. We then explore two potential sources for this small survival advantage, namely franchisors’ screening process and the benefits arising from the brand and business know‐how provided by franchisors. We find evidence that both of the sources contribute to the franchising advantage.     

Resource utilization and charges of patients with and without diagnosed venous thromboembolism during primary hospitalization and after elective inpatient surgery: a retrospective study

Aims: To assess incremental charges of patients experiencing venous thromboembolisms (VTE) across various types of elective inpatient surgical procedures with administration of general anesthesia in the US.

Methods: The authors performed a retrospective study utilizing data from a nationwide hospital operational records database from July 2014 through June 2015 to compare a group of inpatients experiencing a VTE event post-operatively to a propensity score matched group of inpatients who did not experience a VTE. Patients included in the analysis had a hospital admission for an elective inpatient surgical procedure with the use of general anesthesia. Procedures of the heart, brain, lungs, and obstetrical procedures were excluded, as these procedures often require a scheduled ICU stay post-operatively. Outcomes examined included VTE events during hospitalization, length of stay, unscheduled ICU transfers, number of days spent in the ICU if transferred, 3- and 30-day re-admissions, and total hospital charges incurred.

Results: The study included 17,727 patients undergoing elective inpatient surgical procedures. Of these, 36 patients who experienced a VTE event were matched to 108 patients who did not. VTE events occurred in 0.2% of the study population, with most events occurring for patients undergoing total knee replacement. VTE patients had a mean total hospital charge of $60,814 vs $48,325 for non-VTE patients, resulting in a mean incremental charge of $11,979 (p?<?.05). Compared to non-VTE patients, VTE patients had longer length of stay (5.9 days vs 3.7 days, p?<?.001), experienced a higher rate of 3-day re-admissions (3 vs 0 patients) and 30-day re-admissions (7 vs 2 patients).

Conclusions: Patients undergoing elective inpatient surgical procedures with general anesthesia who had a VTE event during their primary hospitalization had a significantly longer length of stay and significantly higher total hospital charges than comparable patients without a VTE event.     

Econometric Cost Structure Estimates for Cellular Telephony in the United States

This article estimates economies of scale for a sample of five cellular telephony firms in the United States. We reject constant returns to scale for all but the smallest firm studied; the remaining firms exhibit decreasing returns to scale. This finding suggests that scale economies cannot be used to justify the current regulated duopoly structure of United States cellular markets.