Estimating the credibility of an exchange rate target zone

Recent breakthroughs in the theory of exchange rate target zones have not been followed by similar contributions on the empirical side. The drift adjustment method of evaluating the credibility of a target zone has become common practice. However, the estimates of the expected rate of depreciation inside the band do not model knowledge of the band in the agents' information set. In this paper, a rational expectations limited-dependent variable method to estimate the expected rate of depreciation is used to remedy this weakness. In the case of the franc-mark target zone with daily data covering a 4-year period, we show that expected rates of devaluation of the order of 2.5% were still present in the early 1990s. Their reappearance in the autumn of 1992 may thus not be surprising.     

When does an ethical attribute matter for product evaluation? The role of warm-glow feelings for low-rated products

Research on the effects of ethical attributes has recently gained traction. However, limited research has addressed consumer response to ethical attributes in the current context where product ratings have become of primary importance to make decisions. Specifically, this study examines the relative effect of ethical attributes on product evaluations across different product ratings. Building on cue consistency theory and the negativity bias, we suggest that ethical attributes gain weight when consumers evaluate a low-rated product. This process leads consumers to anticipate more warm-glow feelings, generating better evaluations for such low-rated products featuring an ethical attribute (vs. another type of attribute). Two experiments provide consistent empirical support for this prediction, and demonstrate that, compared to other attributes or no attribute, an ethical attribute increases product evaluations to a larger extent when the product received low (vs. higher) ratings. We show that this effect occurs because of warm-glow feelings: when product ratings are low, consumers anticipate more warm-glow feelings from purchasing a product with an ethical attribute (vs. another type of attribute), leading to better product evaluations. These findings have direct managerial and ethical implications for practitioners.     

The Role of the Real Estate Sector in the Structural Dynamics of the Chinese Economy: An Input–Output Analysis

Market‐oriented housing reforms and the rapid urbanization process have led to spectacular growth in the Chinese real estate sector (RES). However, the changes in the role played by this sector in the structural dynamics of the Chinese economy have not been examined sufficiently. Accordingly, we analyze the intersectoral structural changes to the Chinese RES, its linkages with the rest of the economy, and its growth sources, using four Chinese input–output tables from 2002 to 2017. We depart from existing work on the RES by using the causative matrix approach and structural decomposition analysis, and obtain three main results. First, the RES, which received little non‐RES feedback during the 2002–2007 period, has subsequently received much more substantial feedback. Second, the impact of the RES on China's economic growth stems mainly from its forward linkages. Third, the growth in the RES has been driven mainly by domestic demand expansion. Our results highlight that the Chinese RES, which plays a key role in value chains, is highly dependent on its own final demand and a fall in its demand would impede economic development. An important implication of these results is that developing the national economy by stimulating the RES would not be as effective as developing the RES through stimulating the national economy.     

Technical and Scale Efficiencies for Chinese Rural Credit Cooperatives: A Bootstrapping Approach in Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper uses Markov-switching techniques to examine the presence of different market conditions on the Shanghai A-share market since the start of active trading in the mid-1990s. The originality of the paper lies in the identification of three contrasting regimes: a speculative market, a bull market and a bear market. Overall, the ‘Casino’ character of the Chinese stock market is the main feature that is substantiated by the present paper. However, the bull market regime is always a buffer zone between the other two regimes. After early 1997, an investor with a weekly horizon most of the time finds herself in the bear market and makes capital losses. Only during very short periods of ‘luck’ does she make substantial capital gains, which on average will compensate her for the losses.     

An introduction: the challenges of the Chinese electricity industry and its reform

This introduction is to highlight comprehensively the Chinese electricity industry for issues related to the institutional reform, capacity growth, pricing regime, technology development, supply structure and new investment in upgrading electric power grids. Through reviews of statistics and documentaries, we provide a generally updated understanding of the current development and reform of China’s electric power industry, which is one strategic focus of the Chinese Government for its further reform in the energy sector.     

Exploring Different Types of Sharing: A Proposed Segmentation of the Market for “Sharing” Businesses

Sharing instead of buying is regaining traction among today's consumers. This study aims at identifying segments of sharing consumers to unearth potentially viable clusters of a consumer behavior that is a market of growing economic relevance. By means of a qualitative study and a survey with a roughly representative sample of 1121 Swiss‐German and German consumers, a set of trait‐related, motivational, and perceived socioeconomic variables is identified that can be used to group individuals into segments that differ with regard to their approach to sharing. A cluster analysis based on these variables suggests four potential clusters of sharing consumers—sharing idealists, sharing opponents, sharing pragmatists, and sharing normatives. Two sets of testable propositions are derived that can guide further research in this domain and pave the way to a more targeted approach to the growing market of “sharing” businesses.     

An Empirical Study of Urban Credit Cooperatives in China

The overall objective of this study is to try and uncover to what extent the borrowing and lending pattern of Chinese urban credit cooperatives (UCCs) leads them to conform to the theoretical view of credit cooperatives and to what degree they are mainly characterized by elements which result from their regulatory environment and the status of China as an economy in transition. We provide evidence from a specially-commissioned survey on the characteristics and functioning of UCCs. Our statistical and econometric analysis points to the tentative conclusion that there are major regional differences in the performance of UCCs both in terms of the quality of loans granted and overall profitability. The latter is also influenced by the quality of the loans made, and this in turn is affected by the number of directors in the UCC and the extent to which the UCC grants loans to state-owned enterprises.     

Inflation Dynamics of Franc-Zone Countries Determinants,Co-movements and Spatial Interactions

This paper shows the uneven role played in the inflation dynamics of African franc zone countries by their integration in a regional monetary union. We obtain three main results sharply contrasting the central- (CEMAC) and west-African (WAEMU) regions. First, differences in the structure of economies and national fiscal stances play a similar role in both unions and appear as potential sources of inflation differentials. Second, even though co-movements are the principal drivers of inflation dynamics in both subregions, global factors dominate regional ones in WAEMU while both play an equal role in CEMAC. Thirdly, spatial interactions are unimportant in CEMAC due to little intra-zone trade, but take an asymmetric form in WAEMU due to the large size of Ivory Coast and Senegal.     

Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis

This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970–1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance. First version received: January 1997/final version received: May 1999