Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

Random Advertising and Monopolistic Price Dispersion

We investigate the role of price advertising in a market where consumers are imperfectly informed about prices. We consider a monopolist whose demand depends on price and advertising expenditure. This demand function is derived from optimizing behavior of consumers. Uninformed consumers may pay a cost to visit the seller and obtain price information. Advertising enables the monopolist to increase the number of informed consumers. In equilibrium the uninformed consumers form rational price expectations, and the seller necessarily adopts a random pricing and advertising strategy.     

Price as a signal of quality: Canada in the international context

Studies have shown that price is very poorly correlated with quality. This paper discusses the methodological criticisms of the earlier work, concluding that the original results remain robust. Examination of 91 sets of Canadian products containing 1020 items reinforces the conclusions of earlier work for the United States and Japan. These international studies contradict the conventional wisdom that price is an adequate signal of quality. We also test the hypotheses that price is a better signal of quality (a) after product tests have been published, and (b) for higher priced items which presumably justify larger investments in search. Canadian data do not support either hypothesis. Some theoretical explanations are outlined and a conclusion briefly presents implications for policy.

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Der Preis als Qualitätsindikator: Kanadische und internationale Befunde

Zusammenfassung Zahlreiche Untersuchungsergebnisse haben gezeigt, daß Preis und Qualität in einem nur sehr dürftigen Zusammenhang stehen. Diese Befunde sind unter methodischem Gesichtspunkt kritisiert worden, der vorliegende Beitrag versucht jedoch zu zeigen, daß die Befunde robust sind und der Kritik standhalten können. Eine Untersuchung der Autoren anhand von 91 kanadischen Warentests mit 1,020 Artikeln bestätigt darüberhinaus die früheren Ergebnisse aus den Vereinigten Staaten und Japan. Insgesamt widersprechen diese internationalen Untersuchungen der herkömmlichen Ansicht, daß der Preis eines Gutes ein angemessener Qualitätsindikator sei.Darüber hinaus prüft die Studie der Autoren die Hypothese, daß der Preis ein besserer Qualitätsindikator ist, (a) nachdem Warentests durchgeführt und die Ergebnisse publiziert wurden, und (b) wenn es sich um teurere Produkte handelt, die vermutlich einen höheren Suchaufwand rechtfertigen. Beide Hypothesen werden durch kanadische Daten nicht gestützt. Abschließend werden einige verbraucherpolitische Implikationen dieser Befunde behandelt.The authors are grateful to referees for important assistance.

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Richard W. Bodell is Assistant Professor and Robert R. Kerton is Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G1. Richard W. Schuster is an economist with the Economics Department of the Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto.     

Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes

VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice.     

Infrastructure provision and international market share rivalry

The paper examines a model of strategic infrastructure investment. Two oligopolistic firms compete on home and foreign product markets for market shares. The national governments support the firms in the market rivalry by providing cost reducing public infrastructure services that are financed out of taxing an input used in the production process. It is shown, that infrastructure policy can be used as an instrument for strategic trade policy. However, governments are facing the problem of balancing the burden of taxation and the benefits of infrastructures. The theoretical model also raises some critical issues with respect to the policy relevance of recent empirical infrastructure research.